London Mayoral Poll: 1st and 2nd prefs

[Maurice Picarda]

How can anyone vote for Boris, other than for comedy value?

Hasn't this been done to death? Some people's dislike of Ken is stronger than their concern about Boris. Lefties in that situation agonise on the issue, conservatives don't.

But surely it can't be impossible to imagine that someone would dislike Ken that much?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Hasn't this been done to death? Some people's dislike of Ken is stronger than their concern about Boris. Lefties in that situation agonise on the issue, conservatives don't.

But surely it can't be impossible to imagine that someone would dislike Ken that much?

I find it hard to imagine disliking Ken so much that you'd vote for a bigot. Some right-wing fucker like Stephen Norris, maybe, but Boris the Bigot no way.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

I find it hard to imagine disliking Ken so much that you'd vote for a bigot. Some right-wing fucker like Stephen Norris, maybe, but Boris the Bigot no way.

There's been a fairly concerted effort to dredge up quotable bigot quotes, but the only mud that was found was the business about "piccaninnies" and "watermelon smiles".

And given that he's not been afraid to insult Portsmouth and Liverpool in much stronger terms, it's probable that he doesn't hold views on race that are significantly more bigoted than those that men of his age and milieu generally hold.

Anyway, done to death. This is an Urban psephology thread, not a Bozza one, although it's a fair question to ask which of the Boris voters is trolling and I suspect that Tribal Princess is.

 

[Brainaddict]

It's easy to forget on here that a large percentage of voters vote according to whether they find a candidate 'likeable' (mostly when they see them on television). I got into a discussion about voting with a bunch of non-political people the other day and realised we were talking at cross purposes:
Them: "Boris Johnson comes across well"
Me: "Maybe you find him entertaining but he has no ideas himself and the evil Tory party machine behind him"
Them: "But I'm sick of Ken and Brian Paddick doesn't seem very interesting."
Me: "I agree, Brian Paddick doesn't seem to have strong convictions."
Them: "No, I just meant he seems a bit boring."

See? Me trying to talk about policies, them trying to talk about whether they'd find the candidate interesting on a reality tv show.

This is why we are now in danger of Boris winning. Nothing to do with policies at all. It's enough to make you doubt the worth of representative democracy...

 

[London_Calling]

I can't even consider Boris to be a serious, all-grown-up politician; surely he's a magazine editor-type in affinity, ability and lifestyle.

This playing around at politics is jolly good fun and I'm sure Dad is proud but, personalities aside, I can't see a line of relevance in his cv.

 

[Bob]

That ^^ basically I don't want Boris in, and Brian won't get in, so I'll vote Ken first then Brian.

I find it highly unlikely that anyone other than Ken will be elected, he's got a strong following and there's always tactical voting...

If I vote Brian first Ken second I guess that might work the same though?

It will work exactly the same really. Unless there's a Ken / Brian second round in which case you'll get Ken if you vote Ken 1st preference, or Brian if you vote Brian first preference.

Upshot: Give your first preference to your favourite candidate and your second preference to your second favorite candidate.

 

[Cloo]

I feel Ken has done some good things, but he's getting mired in all kinds of crap now, and has to go. And Boris is the only one who may get him out - I also have time for Boris. As with Ken (who I voted for the last time), I don't agree with everything he proposes, but I think he knows London and I'm interested to see what he can do given a real chance.

My second vote goes to the Greens for no astoundingly good reason - I think that's how I voted last time for second.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

And given that he's not been afraid to insult Portsmouth and Liverpool in much stronger terms, it's probable that he doesn't hold views on race that are significantly more bigoted than those that men of his age and milieu generally hold.

He's 43, not 83 ffs. And he's had the most expensive education money can buy but is still an ignorant fucker. No excuses there.

 

[bluestreak]

You don't need to be a libertarian to not be an authoritarian.

Truesay. Which non-authoritarian is there on the list then?

 

[untethered]

Truesay. Which non-authoritarian is there on the list then?

As a former policeman not particularly interested in upholding the law, I'd say Mr Paddick can lay some claim to the title.

My own preferred candidate, Alan Craig (Christian People's Alliance), takes a common-sense view to the role of the state.

 

[bluestreak]

You have some funny ideas untethered.

as do the CPA. How you can desrcibe any party that aims to use politics and the law to enforce religious ideals as not being authoritarian is beyond me, but there you go.

 

[untethered]

You have some funny ideas untethered.

as do the CPA. How you can desrcibe any party that aims to use politics and the law to enforce religious ideals as not being authoritarian is beyond me, but there you go.

The key is to be discriminating rather than to see state power as an end in itself.

 

[bluestreak]

The key is to be discriminating rather than to see state power as an end in itself.

ah, i see. i'm sorry, i thought you meant authoritarian in the terms of using the power of the state to enforce their idea of what society should be.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The key is to be discriminating rather than to see state power as an end in itself.

Nope. I've read that three times and I still have no idea what you're on about.

 

[ymu]

For information here is the most recent yougov poll

1st prefs

44 Boris
37 Ken
12 Brian
6 Other

2nd prefs

17 Boris
16 Ken
37 Brian
30 Other

Which just goes to show how completely ignorant of the voting system most people are. 67% of voters intend to waste their 2nd pref vote. There should be an education campaign.

Just had another look at this to try and work out just how much room for movement there is in the "wasted" second prefs. Those 2nd prefs where Boris or Ken were 1st prefs are not wasted votes, they're just a different strategy (some people have to vote for their real first prefs or neither of them will get to the second round!).

Boris and Ken get 81% of the first choice votes between them. So 81% of the 2nd prefs would be for other candidates if noone voted for both Boris and Ken. They get 33% of second prefs between them, so (unless the pollsters allowed them to vote for the same candidate twice, which they can't do in reality) there have to be a substantial number of people (~14%) using one vote for Boris and one for Ken. Which seems a little weird, but not necessarily that surprising when there's a lot of a-political people voting.

So now I'm confused. If those poll numbers were the real election figures, am I right in thinking that the only 2nd preference votes counted are the 19% that didn't vote Boris or Ken in the first round? If so, Ken has win the second round better than 2:1 to make up the 7% deficit from the first round. Not impossible - depends on the proportion of Greens/LL vs UKIP/BNP in the "others" on the first round, and how Brian's 2nd prefs split.

 

[ymu]

So now I'm confused. If those poll numbers were the real election figures, am I right in thinking that the only 2nd preference votes counted are the 19% that didn't vote Boris or Ken in the first round?

Just checked the other thread and Brainaddict says that the all second round votes count regardless?

Not sure what you mean by 'transfer to Boris'. In the event of a second round, all second pref. votes are counted (for the two top candidates) including people who voted for the top two.

Is this right? So the people who vote for both are just cancelling their votes out in the second round, but they get to have their votes counted twice?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Just checked the other thread and Brainaddict says that the all second round votes count regardless?



Is this right? So the people who vote for both are just cancelling their votes out in the second round, but they get to have their votes counted twice?

No. Only 2nd prefs of those who didn't vote 1st pref for the top two count.

 

[ymu]

Ta.

Ken and the right-wing media have some work to do getting the left-leaning vote out then.

 

[rich!]

There aren't any libertarian candidates at all though, are there?

If by Libertarian, you mean "wants to work on contract for shitloads of money, but be bailed out by the state when anything goes wrong" (which it normally means) - then you should vote conservative as usual.

 

[ymu]

If by Libertarian, you mean "wants to work on contract for shitloads of money, but be bailed out by the state when anything goes wrong" (which it normally means) - then you should vote conservative as usual.

Bluey normally votes Tory?

*shattered illusions

 

[rennie]

at subversplat.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

at subversplat.

He's going to fill out a dozen forms and slip them into the box before the returning officer spots him. Assuming that his villainy is repeated London-wide, it's statistically valid and grist to our analytical mill.

 

[scifisam]

yougov polls are from the Evening Standard, and must be regarded as highly partisan to their candidate.

They will also not necessarily have weeded out people who don't live or have a vote in London. That affects the results a lot.

I do the yougov polls, and they're quite well done, but not perfect. It doesn't bother me that the Evening Standard apparently runs them, since they might put lots of spin on the results, but the questions are usually as unbiased as they can be. They don't always ask strong enough opening questions, though, to make sure you're one of the people they actually want opinions from. And they didn't ask me for my voting preferences; I hope they're not avoiding polling anyone whose profile or previous polls suggest they might vote Ken.

Yes, it's only a more democratic system if people understand it

ETA: though it's not true that 67% of people are wasting it. A lot of them will have put Ken or Boris first and will be violently averse to the other candidate. In which case there is nothing worthwhile they can do with the second vote anyway, except for boosting some loser's stats.

That's my opinion too. Plus, if a large number of second preference votes go to, say, the Greens, that does indicate something quite noteworthy about the opinions of people in London, surely?

Is the second round first past the post? Or does someone still have to get more than 50% to win? Or are they the same thing? I R so confused.

 

[detective-boy]

Or does someone still have to get more than 50% to win? Or are they the same thing?

If there's only two in it, there's only a teensy, weensy, weensy chance of one not getting more than the other!

 

[scifisam]

If there's only two in it, there's only a teensy, weensy, weensy chance of one not getting more than the other!

But if some of the second preference votes went to someone else, or some were blank, would that mean anything? That's what I was trying to ask. My poor brain.

 

[ymu]

But if some of the second preference votes went to someone else, or some were blank, would that mean anything? That's what I was trying to ask. My poor brain.

Anyone who's first choice candidate gets eliminated in the first round will have their 2nd preference vote counted in the second round - but only if the person they voted for in their 2nd preference is still in it. If they don't vote for either Boris or Ken somewhere their vote will not have any influence except in the stats for other parties.

 

[scifisam]

Anyone who's first choice candidate gets eliminated in the first round will have their 2nd preference vote counted in the second round - but only if the person they voted for in their 2nd preference is still in it. If they don't vote for either Boris or Ken somewhere their vote will not have any influence except in the stats for other parties.

OK, thanks.

This really is making me see the merits of the first-past-the-post system.

 

[girasol]

'The Candidates' booklet was delivered through the letter box today. I actually didn't know ho many candidates there were until I read it!

Was a bit put off when I opened the very first page and saw the BNP right there, but it's done in alphabetical order. The Green Party's page had the best layout and design of them all. Brian Paddick's Purple/orange colours aren't very pleasing to the eye! It's a bit dailymailish

Boris Johnson promises to 'give Londoners more bang for their buck and axe the waste and overspending at City Hall'...

Finally, just before Ken's page (which isn't badly laid out either and reads well) is The English Democrats page, whose main campaigning point is to save London from Tartan taxes... The candidate's (Matt O'Connor) bleached hair and designer specs makes and the other burning issue of getting a national holiday for St. George's Day kept me amused for a few minutes.

 

[ymu]

OK, thanks.

This really is making me see the merits of the first-past-the-post system.

Why? It forces people to vote for a mainstream candidate or waste their vote, which makes it very difficult for small parties to record any sizeable vote ever, which makes it very difficult for them to establish themselves as a credible alternative. With FPTP you can either make a protest vote, or you can vote for the least worst option out of those with a chance of winning. With this system, you can do both.

The system would be a lot better with two entirely separate rounds of voting, and better voter education about what their options are, but FPTP is shite.

If it's too complicated, just vote as normal and leave the second choice blank.

 

[Badgers]

There are fifteen people in my office and I am the only one planning to vote