littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It worries me a little that some voters who may be violently anti-Boris, for instance, will misunderstand the system, and not vote in the way that is most effective at keeping him out.
London Mayoral Poll: 1st and 2nd prefs
- Thread starter Maurice Picarda
- Start date
newbie
undisambiguated
in the poll immediately before an election, yes, I think you're right. But polls conducted weeks or months before the day can't be measured, they can only be compared against other polls. To some extent they're used as campaigning tools by those that commission them, used to bolster or undermine the resilience of candidates.
I don't think it's an exact science, so repeatedly showing BJ as front runner may help strengthen the vote for KL, which would backfire on the ES beautifully.
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
Newtboi now beating Berrygrrl by 17 votes to 11 in the second round.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Berrygrrl - that makes her sound really cool - I'm even more likely to vote for her now
So someone who votes for a candidate unlikely (based on current polls) to be in the last two (based on current polls)...Is a vote wasted if it reflects the desire of the voter? How much should people let the polls decide their second choice?
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Depends how clear a picture the polls paint. If, the day before the election, the polls show 45% for ken, 45% for boris and 10% for brian, then you can be verry safe in assuming that ken and boris will contest the 1st round. You can't be sure that the 2nd round will actually happen, but if it does, nobody but ken or boris will be picking up extra votes.
dynamicbaddog
run for your life
newbie
undisambiguated
the second round is blind. Elsewhere in the world they hold two stage elections where the result of the first round is known and thought through before the second round vote takes place (usually a week after the first round I think). For the London mayor vote we're required to guess the first round result and base our second pref vote on that guess. I'm sure it's administratively easier and cheaper than a proper two stage election, but it leads to confused threads like this as people try to figure out not only the rules but also all the implications of different voting patterns.
And that's the rub. Not voting solely on conscience, but also tactically with the second vote. Do you really get greater choice?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
It's questionable, but it does safeguard a bit against someone with a core minority support but majority detestation - such as Thatcher, say - winning by default through a split in the anti vote.
What about when all the candidates are dull as dishwater and inspire nothing by slight bemusement by Londoners.? Where's the "no mayor, thanks" option?
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Looks like Berry is in with a chance!
If only voting was restricted to urbanites...
bluestreak
HomosexualityIsStalin’sAtomBombtoDestroyAmerica
i havne't decided yet, i wasn't going to vote but if it looks like johnson will win i guess i'll have to. probably berry and livingstone i guess.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Innit? I wanted to vote only for the assembly and not for the mayor, but the potential loss of dignity and sanity if the polls are right is driving me towards voting
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Almost everyone so far that has voted Green first has put Ken second, and almost all Ken firsts have Green second. Interesting.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Predictable no? They are the only two vaguely* left choices, if you discount the SWP, which nearly everyone on these boards does.
*very, in Ken's case
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Urban would have a second-round run-off between Ken and the Greens, and I wonder if, knowing that, any of the Ken 1st, Green 2nd voters would switch their votes round.
untethered
For industry & decency
Hardly surprising that the authoritarian socialists would cluster together.
bluestreak
HomosexualityIsStalin’sAtomBombtoDestroyAmerica
There aren't any libertarian candidates at all though, are there?
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Yes, it's only a more democratic system if people understand it
ETA: though it's not true that 67% of people are wasting it. A lot of them will have put Ken or Boris first and will be violently averse to the other candidate. In which case there is nothing worthwhile they can do with the second vote anyway, except for boosting some loser's stats.
Aye. It'd help if they called them first round and second round votes, rather than 1st and 2nd preference. Anyone who doesn't understand the system is likely to take that literally.
Yes. With approx 2/3 of second preferences going to candidates who won't get to the second round, there's a lot of room for things to change before the day. Media dissection of the polls should help people work out the system a bit better and how best to vote tactically.
Of course, if everyone voted tactically to keep Boris out on the basis of current expectations, Ken might not make it to the second round.
Safest anti-Boris vote has to be Ken first and a pat on the back for a second candidate. But <no-hope candidate> first and Ken second is almost certain to be just as effective given that Brian is miles behind in the first round, and is a more effective way of noting dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties and the general crapness of the candidates.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
That would include the well-healed folk of Brockley in their £m houses and their propensity to vote green with reckless abandon.How can anyone vote for Boris, other than for comedy value?
untethered
For industry & decency
They're probably the kind of people that earn six-figure salaries in the public and voluntary sectors and do very well from the largesse of Labour's national and city governments.
untethered
For industry & decency
You don't need to be a libertarian to not be an authoritarian.
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