N_igma
Epistemic nuisance
Obviously you haven't. Where are the politicos?
Local elections: The Tories have done VERY well - but why?
- Thread starter JHE
- Start date
Obviously you haven't. Where are the politicos?
Bernie Gunther
Fundamentalist Druid
I wonder though if there's a tipping point? Is it possible that a tory government in a time of deepening recession might actually be come to be perceived as an existential threat by a significant proportion of the UK population, rather than just as a bunch of unpleasant sleazes?
The demographics aren't in their favour IMO with an ageing population which is increasingly going to depend on things like the health service and is likely to get very angry when they try to privatise it.
The demographics aren't in their favour IMO with an ageing population which is increasingly going to depend on things like the health service and is likely to get very angry when they try to privatise it.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It would yield burnt out polling stations and a mass boycott
Quite. A definite case of being careful of what you wish for.
JHE
.
For those who think the Tories have not done very well:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8081729.stm
(The turnout is fairly usual for local elections, apparently.)
The circumstances of the vote are a great big scandal about political piggies behaving piggishly. In those circumstances, the number one piggy party getting 38% of the vote is pretty bloody good.
According to the BBC's estimated projected national vote share - the Conservatives are on 38%, Labour on 23% - a historic low - the Lib Dems on 28% and other parties on 11%.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8081729.stm
(The turnout is fairly usual for local elections, apparently.)
The circumstances of the vote are a great big scandal about political piggies behaving piggishly. In those circumstances, the number one piggy party getting 38% of the vote is pretty bloody good.
elbows
Well-Known Member
True but the same article also says:
It suggests the Tories and Lib Dems are doing as well as they did in 2004 while Labour is three points down and 1% lower than last year's record low projection.
The Conservatives' projection is down on the 44% they got last year and there was some evidence that in areas where Tory MPs had been embroiled in the expenses scandal, the Tory vote dropped.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
haven't seen the turnout, but i suspect it's higher, more people voting to punish the established parties, so a lower tory vote suggests that they are being punished too
They are but its not mattering. Thats the difference. And where it does matter the Tories are not losing as many votes as Labour.
Elections are very rarely won as opposed to being lost and today is a classic case of this but anybody trying to take any comfort from this about the Tories is just doing a classic head in the sand about the modern political realities.
For me the BIG losers are the Lib-Dems. Losing Somerset is a disaster for them and its only the focus on Labour that is keeping this from being the story of the day.
tangentlama
Nameless voices crying
Why should we live under the Tories when millions upon millions of Brits don't want to live under them?
Then find a way to persuade the remaining 50-60% who didn't vote, to vote!
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
losing Somerset and devon will hurt the lib dems, but they won a big city , Bristol, so can't see that as being a big losing day
The West Country is their back bone. If they can lose a county like Somerset to the Tories, on the back of all the current expenses revelations, then it does not bode well for them come the next election.
articul8
Dishonest sociopath
exactly, and given Labour got a 66 majority in 05 it's remarkable the Tories aren't doing better. It suggests a modest Labour recovery could easily lead to hung parliament territory still
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
it hurts them yes, but the tories need to do a lot better to win an overall majority at a general election.
Bernie Gunther
Fundamentalist Druid
Who for is the problem. A few months ago John McDonnell and some of his mates had some polling done showing a strong majority (I think it was about 80% but I could be wrong) of the population want the utilities renationalised.
Who can they vote for to get that policy enacted?
There are no electable parties who would offer such a policy and yet a strong majority want to see them enacted. Democracy doesn't seem to be working, so it's not really surprising fewer people can be arsed voting.
Edited to add: was 67% for renationalisation, the 87% was something else. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/11/renationalisation-poll-peoples-charter
Still a strong majority though and one whose wishes are being ignored by all conceivably electable parties.
LOL. Keep on believing it. The Torys are on course for a 100 seat plus majority at the next election.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
they might get in in a Tory/Lib Dem coalition, but no way 100+ majority, they are damaged goods, not as damaged as Labour tbf, but they are damaged
girasol
Addicted to handstands!
Coming from a country where voting is mandatory I have to say I still don't know how it would work here.
Good thing about mandatory voting: national holiday on election day
Bad thing: you, theoretically, go to prison if you don't vote (although to be honest, no one ever really went to prison as you could 'justify' your absence: i.e. I was away, etc)
Make that bucket over your head is nice and tight.
The next election is a simple two horse race between Labour and the Tories. Yes the Tories are damaged BUT Labour are far more damaged, to the point of almost being crippled and with another 10-12 months of open civil war in it its going to get even more damaged.
The Tories will, baring any completely unforseen events, walk the next election. The only chance Labour has is trying to bring in very swift electoral reforms and introduce a PR system but thats it.
The Tories aint done well ? Have we been watching the same results today ? They have gained 7 councils. They have taken Somerset and Devon from the Lib-Dems which is one of their strongholds. They are both staggering results and show that far from being the new opposition the Lib-Dems are going to become even less relevent than they are now following the next election.
Labour do not have a single county council.
Its been a cracking day for the Tories. Beyond their wildest expectations especially in light of the recent events with expenses and so on. And on top of this they have a Labour Party in open civil war. No briefing behind the scenes, nobody giving off the record quotes but full bang on resignations from Cabinet and people telling Brown he has to go.
I'll take this 'not doing very well' any day of the week thank you very much.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
It's all froth stuff based on labour voters staying at home. They'll come back out in a GE - which they only need do in a tiny% od seats. The tories are fucked.
you only done well as the others did disasterously .. every where I look the tory vote is down 20-40% .. .. you call that a sucess? sure on FPTP you would/will win a landslide in Parliament ..
BUT .. that Cameron, and you, think that the Tories have done well, that this is good for them or 'democracy' the 'political process' , shows how cynical, how decitfull and full of shit they all are .. no wonder peopel are cynical
the key stat they SHOULD publish .. % of registered voters ( whether they vote or NOT)
that would show how badly you did .. what 40% of a 40% turnout?? whats that about 20% of the voters???
LOL. We both know thats a load of bollocks. If that was the case then Labour would not be imploding in the way that is has been over the last 48 hours.
And with the election over a year away and Brown not going anywhere there is a whole 12 months for it just to get worse for Labour.
Nah. They are finished. You lot on here can try and convince yourselves otherwise but the Torys can only get stronger after this and Labour only weaker.
I thought one of the most telling things about today was during Browns Press conference when he denied wanting to get rid of Darling. The utter collective contempt from the hacks was just so so telling and even his favourite BBC bitches like Nick Robinson will start really sticking the knives in now.
Its over. Just a case of when, not if.
elbows
Well-Known Member
In one very specific sense they havent done amazingly well, share of the vote and comparison with last election. This alone means the election results are probably not beyond their wildest expectations, although they did gain control of areas that would make them very happy.
In every other way its been a good day for them, Gordon hasnt gone so they dont face the threat of a new opponent.
Put it this way, its a day that Tories can celebrate but that will likely not lead to Cameron becoming too complacent about future landslide.
elbows
Well-Known Member
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Of course it bollocks, but they only need abolut 24% natioanally to win.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The more I look at specific wards near me, the more I get a sense of how misleading the Blue Tory council control map is in terms of the bigger picture.
My town is often a safe Labour seat in a General Election but has tended to swing Tory when they are really dominating, for example they stuck with Labour in 1979 but went Tory in 1983.
Looking at one of the few wards here that has switched from Labour to Tory in these county elections, Labour went from 1825 votes in 2005 to 405 now. The Tories went from 1500 to 770. That doesnt look like the most comforting way to be picking up seats. If the general cynicism and loathing of established politicians hasnt subsided that much by the general election, it could be a most interesting battle.
My town is often a safe Labour seat in a General Election but has tended to swing Tory when they are really dominating, for example they stuck with Labour in 1979 but went Tory in 1983.
Looking at one of the few wards here that has switched from Labour to Tory in these county elections, Labour went from 1825 votes in 2005 to 405 now. The Tories went from 1500 to 770. That doesnt look like the most comforting way to be picking up seats. If the general cynicism and loathing of established politicians hasnt subsided that much by the general election, it could be a most interesting battle.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
Speaking to my local polling station bloke, the euro box was stuffed and needed emptying a few times, the locals box was hardly used.
I don't think we can extrapolate local results to GE results. The same people who dragged thier arses wearily to vote to keep the neo-mosleyites out will likely drag themselves to the polls on the day for an anti tory vote.
/idle speculation
I don't think we can extrapolate local results to GE results. The same people who dragged thier arses wearily to vote to keep the neo-mosleyites out will likely drag themselves to the polls on the day for an anti tory vote.
/idle speculation
Azrael
circling Airstrip One
I doubt it: there's still tribal hatred of the Conservatives to unite around. Another term in power would be the worst thing for Labour: like a football team that dodges relegation and is forced to fight a doomed battle next season, they're longing to have time away to regroup.
If the Conservatives loose, however, they could well disintegrate. The Conservative Party is a seething coalition of people who hate each other. "Eurosceptics" vs Charles Clarke, grammar school lobby vs aristocrats who couldn't care less, and law and order types vs those who want to hug hoodies. They're united only by their desire for power. If that's not in prospect, they'll end.
And without the bogeyman of rampaging Thatcherism to scare Labour folks into line, the Labour Party might go the same way. Alternatively, if the Conservative Party got shot of its Thatcherite wing and tried actual conservatism, the fire might go out of the tribal spat.
Sadly, it looks like this won't happen. Tribalism and personality politics has won the day again. Labour are busted, so we'll vote for the other lot. That the participants are rotten across the board isn't considered. That would mean arguing about ideology, and neither voters or political journalists enjoy that.
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