Local Elections May 2016

[redsquirrel]

Really Sue, that's disgraceful, how can you be so idle? So uncaring about our democracy?

Politicians can never – not even sotto voce – blame the idleness of the voters they woo. They can’t question the wilful ignorance of those who lazily say “You’re all the same” on the doorstep, when at the click of a mouse anyone can find out the political basics. The “elites” of Westminster have rarely been so different – David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron, Nigel Farage or Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP, with local government and the nations likewise offering a rainbow of choice.

But the people are always right, even when they fail in the most basic citizen’s duty – to vote. So we must blame the politicians. And they are culpable. Why isn’t falling turnout a top priority?

 

[Johnny Vodka]

So, drug law reform but shitting on people in regards to privatising health care, housing, welfare, education. Civil liberties? you mug.

Would they do all those things if they held power on their own? They're willing to spend more on education than the snp are. Basically you're saying we shouldn't vote for a party that have made a past mistake. I only had lib dem, labour, tory or snp on the paper i voted for them on.

 

[Sue]

Really Sue, that's disgraceful, how can you be so idle? So uncaring about our democracy?

Indeed. And it was mayor/London assembly/council by election too. I am a bad person.

 

[stethoscope]

Would they do all those things if they held power on their own? They're willing to spend more on education than the snp are. Basically you're saying we shouldn't vote for a party that have made a past mistake. I only had lib dem, labour, tory or snp on the paper i voted for them on.

Yes they damn well would have done that shit on their own. Prominent Lib Dems even wrote a fucking book on how to do it.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Well to be fair in JVs case I don't think he is a mug, rather that his selfish, "no such thing as society", individualism actually makes the wanker a good match for the LibDems. Perfect Thatchers child.

Not selfish at all. I pretty much never use cannabis. Legalisation would stop mainly working class lads being criminalised, give medical benefits to many and stop dangerous synthetic cannabis.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Yes they damn well would have done that shit on their own. Prominent Lib Dems even wrote a fucking book on how to do it.

Who did you vote for?

 

[stethoscope]

Do Lib Dem apologists really still think that the party were somehow unfairly done by and were some sort of moderating influence on the Tories?!

 

[stethoscope]

Who did you vote for?

There were no local elections up where I live. I wouldn't have voted for any of the cunts on offer anyway.

 

[Sue]

Do Lib Dem apologists really still think that the party were somehow unfairly done by and were some sort of moderating influence on the Tories?!

Yes, yes they do

 

[JimW]

Fucking hell, am I the only person (apart from the friend I've just been out with who last voted in 1987) not to vote today?

I suspect when the turn-out figures come out you'll find yourself part of the silent majority

 

[redsquirrel]

I suspect when the turn-out figures come out you'll find yourself part of the silent majority

Part of the great unthinking, wilfully ignorant masses

That Toynbee article is a classic, surely even she must realise that it is a parody of itself.

 

[Sue]

I suspect when the turn-out figures come out you'll find yourself part of the silent majority

Or (as will be at least inferred) one of those lazy, apathetic, stupid people who're letting everyone else down by not exercising their right to vote?

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

The lib dems were such a thorn in the Tories' sides that Danny Alexander got a knighthood for services to fucking austerity and screwing the poor. Sir Danny Fucking Alexander.

 

[chilango]

Time to dig this out again?

 

[redsquirrel]

Is someone going to start a results thread or should we just use this one?

 

[redsquirrel]

Incidentally the Guardian made this claim about Labour in Wales

In spite of the fact that Labour has always had a more nationalist stance in Wales than in Scotland, the party is in historic decline in Wales too. It may lose seats, though not on a Scottish scale. A Labour-led coalition or Labour minority government seems a likely outcome.

It's the bolded bit I'm interested in. Does anyone know if there's any truth in it?

Judging from the Assembly elections it doesn't really seem to stand up, Labours share has bobbed around a bit but I don't think anyone could claim that there is any historic decline there

Year Constituency Regional
1999 37.6 35.4
2003 40.0 36.6
2007 32.2 29.6
2011 42.3 36.9

But obviously that only covers a 12 year period, has anyone got/seen the equivalent data for Westminster elections? Preferably going back to 1945.

 

[redsquirrel]

Post by John Curtice placing todays elections in the wider context.

Consequently, Jeremy Corbyn faces a relatively demanding electoral test at a time when many are looking to see if he ‘fails’. Even if Labour were to enjoy some recovery from its position a year ago, the party would still suffer net losses. Indeed, simply repeating its performance locally in last year’s local elections would see the party lose control of Dudley, Cannock Chase, Crawley, Redditch, Rossendale and Southampton. This set of losses would undoubtedly be regarded by Corbyn’s critics as evidence that he had lost the plot in middle England – but in fact they may simply be an indication that the party was previously just treading water.

And that, at least, appears to be what the party is doing according to the polls – albeit they remain methodologically in flux since their underestimation of Conservative and overestimation of Labour support in last year’s election. According to the three polling companies that have so far been polling on a regular basis in this parliament, Labour is currently averaging 33 per cent, no more than marginally up on the 31 per cent the party secured in the general election (and indeed on the party’s standing in these same polls before Corbyn became leader). The party still trails the Conservatives by six points, much as it did in the ballot box last year.

 

[J Ed]

Welsh exit polling shows Labour very slightly outperforming polling


edit: nevermind, doing exactly the same as polling

 

[killer b]

Post by John Curtice placing todays elections in the wider context.

...shortly after, they posted this blog about expectation management. bit of a wink there? (it's worth a read btw)

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Incidentally the Guardian made this claim about Labour in Wales

It's the bolded bit I'm interested in. Does anyone know if there's any truth in it?

Judging from the Assembly elections it doesn't really seem to stand up, Labours share has bobbed around a bit but I don't think anyone could claim that there is any historic decline there

Year Constituency Regional
1999 37.6 35.4
2003 40.0 36.6
2007 32.2 29.6
2011 42.3 36.9

But obviously that only covers a 12 year period, has anyone got/seen the equivalent data for Westminster elections? Preferably going back to 1945.

It's total bollocks. They have run the assembly since it started. The tories were virtually wiped out in 2001 general election, even losing Monmouth to Labour.

It is true that from being virtually wiped out the tories have regained their previous footholds after slipping behind Plaid overall, but the claim that Labour are in decline is absolute nonsense.

Just caught a tiny bit of the BBC's radio coverage and their spin is extraordinary. It's all about Corbyn apparently, not the govt. Anything other than wins for Labour and that's Corbyn failing. (And given that London seems bound to be a massive swing to Labour, that doesn't really count, apparently.) Had to quickly switch off.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Welsh exit polling shows Labour very slightly outperforming polling


edit: nevermind, doing exactly the same as polling

If that's correct, it shows Plaid holding up and UKIP taking more or less evenly from Labour and the tories. Bad for the tories to slip behind Plaid again, so let's hope that's true. UKIP now a significant presence, but hard to call this a bad result for Labour. Somehow this won't count in terms of the Corbyn judgement, though.

 

[Tom A]

From the Guardian:

Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher are politics professors who specialise in local elections and they have produced a forecast for what will happen tonight based on how the parties have been performing in recent council byelections. The figures were set out in this briefing for the Political Studies Association (pdf). Here they are:

Conservatives: +50

Labour: -150

Lib Dems: +40

Ukip: +40

Another academic, Stephen Fisher, has also tried forecasting what tonight’s results will be, using a model based on how opinion polls have shifted since the seats were last contested. He explains his approach in this blog, and his figures are here, alongside the Rallings and Thrasher ones for comparison.

Not looking good for Labour, is it

 

[Patteran]

Bit nervous about this - possibility our ward in prestwich will turn tory - only a couple of hundred votes in it last time, & low turn out could narrow it further. Materially, it won't really make much difference - labour will still control the town hall (bury), & still enact the cuts demanded by the tories who manage the country, but...

 

[redsquirrel]

It's total bollocks. They have run the assembly since it started. The tories were virtually wiped out in 2001 general election, even losing Monmouth to Labour.

It is true that from being virtually wiped out the tories have regained their previous footholds after slipping behind Plaid overall, but the claim that Labour are in decline is absolute nonsense.

Well that's my feeling, I mean I'm sure there will be a decline in the Labour vote in Westminster election from 1945 to the present, but I'm skeptical that it will be meaningfully different from any trend seen in England. However, I just wondering if anyone had any proof.

From the Guardian:

Not looking good for Labour, is it

As the Curtice piece (and others) above points out it depends what you are comparing to - 2012 or 2015. My prediction is that overall the performances of all parties will be pretty "average", by and large Tories and Labour both treading water, SNP still dominating Scotland, UKIP consolidating in England and making gains in Wales and the LibDems making a modest comeback (unfortunately).

 

[Tom A]

As the Curtice piece (and others) above points out it depends what you are comparing to - 2012 or 2015. My prediction is that overall the performances of all parties will be pretty "average".

I hope that you are right - I note a lot of commentators are making comparisons with Ed Miliband's "high water mark" of 2012. To me anything above a slight increase in vote share compared to 2015 would be a big setback for Labour, and for the left in general who have put so much emphasis on supporting Corbyn.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

The Zero Tolerance Policing Party.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well that's my feeling, I mean I'm sure there will be a decline in the Labour vote in Westminster election from 1945 to the present, but I'm skeptical that it will be meaningfully different from any trend seen in England. However, I just wondering if anyone had any proof..

A brief look shows that Labour consistently polled over 50% in GEs in the 50s and 60s, while they're more like 40% now. But they're still clearly the biggest party. Strongholds were the mining and heavy industry areas, not surprisingly, and yes, if you look at other former mining/heavy industry areas in England I'm sure you'll see a similar pattern.

But they're still the biggest party and haven't been declining in the last 20-odd years. It's still bollocks. You can't call a particular shift that's already happened and basically finished a continuing decline.

 

[tim]

Polling station was actually very busy but lots of people just standing around chatting.

Three colour-coded ballot papers for me and three colour-coded boxes to put them in.

Obviously the individual London boroughs take the same approach to ballot boxes as they do to waste disposal. In Newham they just have one box for all papers, which have probably already been sent of to landfill

 

[Miss-Shelf]

my polling station in Forest Hill was packed at 8 30pm tonight
busiest polling station moment I ever had

 

[ffsear]

Anyone watching live ?/