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Lib Dem Polls - How Low Can They Go?

Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by the button, Jun 13, 2010.

  1. claphamboy

    claphamboy The wheels on the bus go round and round....

    You're having a laugh, right?

    Cornwall, as with most of the LD's rural seats in the SW, have the Tories in a strong second place with Labour so far behind they don't have a chance in hell, for example in both Cornwall North & Devon North Labour came fourth after UKIP.

    A drift of LD voters to Labour will, generally speaking, let the Tories in - look at these figures from Cornwall (2010 election)....

    St Ives:
    Andrew George Liberal Democrat 19,619 42.7 -9.1
    Derek Thomas Conservative 17,900 39.0 +11.7
    Philippa Latimer Labour 3,751 8.2 -4.4

    St Austell & Newquay
    Stephen Gilbert Liberal Democrat 20,189 42.7 -4.5
    Caroline Righton Conservative 18,877 40.0 +5.1
    Lee Jameson Labour 3,386 7.2 -6.6

    Cornwall North
    Dan Rogerson Liberal Democrat 22,512 48.1 +5.7
    Sian Flynn Conservative 19,531 41.7 +6.3
    Miriel O'Connor UK Independence Party 2,300 4.9 -0.8
    Janet Hulme Labour 1,971 4.2 -8.3

    - The figures are much the same for the LD seats right across the SW, the exception being Bristol West.

  2. ericjarvis

    ericjarvis give a feck for the feckless

    Actually that's precisely my problem with Simon Hughes. He's run a long term PR campaign to get people to come to him with problems allowing him to "fix" things and blame all the problems on "Labour Southwark". Much of the time he's simply making sure the right department of the council knows what they need to know, something that can be done by anyone simply asking a councillor.

    I don't like MPs who foster a cult of personality in their constituency. I don't like MPs that try to get the credit for everything positive that happens om their patch regardless of whether or not they have made any contribution to it. I don't like Hughes one little bit.
  3. butchersapron

    butchersapron blood on the walls

    The polling actually suggests 8 gains for labour and 6 for the tories, the ld's holding onto two.
  4. claphamboy

    claphamboy The wheels on the bus go round and round....

    I spotted that, but it doesn't make any sense, e.g.

    followed by...

    How is Camborne and Redruth a 'three way marginal' with both the Tories & LD on around 37% and Labour on only 16%?

    Meanwhile in the east of Cornwall, Labour was around 4-7%, and in the east of the region most of the seats are held by the Tories, with around 47-57%, and the polling shows their vote is holding up.
  5. ymu

    ymu Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet

    The electoral maths is really tricky here. The next election will have, in effect, no big third party. The pattern of 'tactical' voting will be entirely different.

    The Greens have a very good chance of more seats at the next election. In the locals/regionals, they benefited at the expense mainly of Tories (IIRC), whilst the Tories maintained a no change result by hoovering up Lib Dems. But they're not in a position to pick up many (I am assuming three will be more than the Lib Dems get. :D)
  6. little_legs

    little_legs Поехали!

    Me neither, but his office is a bit like a local mob. He does not do much, but can afford to rip the benefits of the fact that there isn't anyone challenging him on local issues or showing him for what he really is. Basically, we could have a Communist or a Green MP here, as long they had their fingers in everything and were the only viable alternative. I will not be surprised one bit if he gets re-elected in 2015.
  7. little_legs

    little_legs Поехали!

    Did I mention his biodiesel shit too? There are a few of these driving around London Bridge and Bermondsey:

  8. We can only guess what things will look like, I think we will probably see a big increase in the Green vote but it probably wont translate into seats, outside of maybe Norwich.

    I think the Libdems probably will hold on to their two or three Highlands and Islands strongholds and Cable's and Hughes' seats and that will be about that.

    Tories and Labour will probably make equal gains, which given that the Tories are starting from a stronger base will probably mean a narrow Tory lead though not a clear majority.
  9. ymu

    ymu Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet

    The Tories might split the LD spoils with Labour, but they'll have a massive anti-Tory turnout in their two-way marginals against Labour.

    But we got a hung parliament last year because there was no fucker left to vote for, and Labour are still running around like headliess chickens, so who knows? Potentially lots of space for locally-strong small parties and independents.
  10. embree

    embree Well-Known Member

    Given that Labour held Falmouth and Camborne in 1997 and 2001, it's not so terribly far fetched
  11. killer b

    killer b Ennui Rollins

    latest yougov:

    CON 35%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%

    labour one point ahead of the combined coalition vote again. i guess the last few days haven't been happy for the govt...
  12. joevsimp

    joevsimp Well-Known Member

    Think I agree with you there (just look at the Aussie Greens, 1 seat from 11% of first preferences) Norwich south would take a lot of work to turn around though, and the vote tanked in London in 2010, a poor showing across the board outside of target seats that will be easy ammo for the ol' bar charts, although we had an ok set of local results this time, but we need to gain a few seats in the Euros this time, 2015 feels like a long way away
  13. Kippa

    Kippa Well-Known Member

    At the moment there are 57 Lib Dem MPs. In the next election how many do you think there will be? Personally I don't fancy our chances :( I'd say we would be lucky if we get 25 Lib Dem MPs.
  14. Roadkill

    Roadkill Well-Known Member

    That's still 25 too many.
  15. ymu

    ymu Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet

    What are you talking about? It'll be a fucking miracle if they make it into double figures. :D
  16. BigTom

    BigTom Well-Known Member

    It'll be interesting at the next election.. I agree with you ymu but I wonder what will happen in Lab/Lib marginals where you might see tactical voting by tories who will vote for lib dems.. you might find they gain/hold a few of those seats on that basis. I'd love to be a psephologist right now, would be totally fascinating to look at specific seats and try to plot out what might go on.
    Obviously they are going to lose any lib/tory marginals and 3-way contests and probably will lose more ex-labour voters in those lab/lib marginals than they gain in tory voters. I guess many of those ex-labour voters will go back to labour rather than moving onto greens or some other party or not voting at all but perhaps not..
  17. embree

    embree Well-Known Member

    Are you a Lib Dem then?

    Fuck off and die :)
  18. Lo Siento.

    Lo Siento. Second As Farce

    Tbh, it all seems fairly predictable to me. They'll lose all their marginals, in toryland because anti-tory voters will abandon them, or in labourland because enough left-leaning voters will abandon them.
  19. BigTom

    BigTom Well-Known Member

    It might be that simple but the thing is that at the last election I think they were seen by many as a centre-left party. Very few tories would have voted for them, where lots of labour voters did, not just tactically in tory seats but also those who were dissafected by the blair years/iraq war.
    Now they are seen as a right wing party you'll get tories voting for them, but not labour voters. The big question for me is whether those dissaffected labour voters will return to labour or go somewhere else. If they return to labour (as polls seem to suggest) then I think you are right.. if they don't then I think you might see the lib dems picking up seats by gaining more tory votes than they lose in ex-labour votes. But it'll not be more than a handful of seats where this might happen.
  20. Streathamite

    Streathamite ideological dogmatist

    I agree entirely eric - but it's bloody effective!
  21. Streathamite

    Streathamite ideological dogmatist

    dream on yellowtory - you'll be lucky if you get to double figures
  22. Lo Siento.

    Lo Siento. Second As Farce

    In Labour v Lib Dem marginals, tactical tory was already voting Lib Dem. The hardcore tory who didn't still sees the Cleggites as thwarting the Conservative gloriously pure agenda.
  23. killer b

    killer b Ennui Rollins

    CON 35%, LAB 43%, LD 10%; APPROVAL -31

    2 points up from saturday... is it a murdochgate bump? 'only untainted party' and all that?
  24. ymu

    ymu Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet

    Margin of error.
  25. Pickman's model

    Pickman's model Every man and every woman is a star

    most people would say that was bad luck
  26. Lo Siento.

    Lo Siento. Second As Farce

    yup. Looks like 8% is them bottoming out ...
  27. embree

    embree Well-Known Member

    Yeah, their range atm is 8-10% so no change really
  28. ymu

    ymu Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet

    Which is roughly what you'd expect. They were on a fairly steady 20-25% before May 2010. Two-thirds of their marginals were fought against the Tories (ie Labour voters where voting Labour couldn't stop the Tories), so you'd expect about two thirds of their electoral support to melt away when they came out as yellow Tories. The other third were voting LD to keep Labour out, so they're happy enough and probably not going anywhere.
  29. Lo Siento.

    Lo Siento. Second As Farce

    if you're still a lib dem now - youŕe a goner...
  30. ymu

    ymu Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet

    But, they're too nice to be Tories. :(

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