John McDonnell says he has half the MPs he needs

[glenquagmire]

OK, so it wasn't the most recent occasion, mea culpa. But it wasn't that long ago either. Heffer was a nobody. The key bit is the change in the rules, unfortunately.

My prediction for JMcD is around 10% in the PLP, 40% in the unions and 40% in the CLPs.

If he gets on the ballot paper.

 

[belboid]

Heffer was far less of a 'nobody' than John McDonnel. Who outside of his constituency & longstanding lefties had even heard of him before he decided to stand? Hardly anyone, unfortunately. Heffer was a widely recognised figure - in no small part down to his being a Liverpool MP at the time of the council fight, and, I suppose, because of his widely recognisable figure.

I think you're seriously deluding yourself about the size of any vote for him - I hope I'd be wrong, but I doubt it. 10/20/30 maximum.

 

[glenquagmire]

I may be overestimating the support for McDonnell but I think you're overestimating the support for Brown among the rank and file. He really isn't popular with anyone that I've met.

Turnout will be very low (30% or below in the unions, I expect) so McDonnell doesn't have to be that popular in order to take a sizeable vote.

 

[belboid]

both points true - to an extent. But I know lots of people who, in 94, preferred Beckett or even Prescott, but voted Blair cos he'd be a 'winner'. I think the same will happen again.

 

[Cobbles]

I'm 21, and i know about the 80s and what went on then from reading about it, and so to an extent can almost understand the hostility/pessimism.

I can proudly say that i've rejoined since my not so long ago student days, and i will be at my next labour meeting to put forward the case for John McDonnell and why the labour party should naturally be for socialist policies.

Brilliant, let's go back to the 80's when Labour was totally unelectable.

 

[belboid]

an 'unelectable' labour party is exactly what you'd like tho isnt it cobblers?

 

[glenquagmire]

Someone's not paying attention

 

[treelover]

Yes, and its going to be even less when the cash for honours finally delivers

oh, and John is witty, charismatic and genuinely interested in others, though i willsay he is very selctive in what campaigns he is willing to flag up. oh, and yes, amny young people do appear to be getting enthused by his campaign , if he can speak at some of the festivals I think he will get a good hearing.

[/QUOTE]Blair's PLP is an absolute minority within the party

 

[Streathamite]

There are some who prefer an electable 'left-wing' party. .

the evidence of the past 6 elections strongly suggests this is in fact a contradiction in terms

 

[Groucho]

OK, so it wasn't the most recent occasion, mea culpa. But it wasn't that long ago either. Heffer was a nobody. The key bit is the change in the rules, unfortunately.

My prediction for JMcD is around 10% in the PLP, 40% in the unions and 40% in the CLPs.

If he gets on the ballot paper.

Doesn't look like he'll get on.

He won't get 40% in the unions. His message will not get through to most members (if it did he'd win!). UNISON for instance have published a list of all likely contenders including some unlikely ones but missed JMcD off the list! Fact is the union tops will do their damndest to ensure that JMcD won't even be acknowledged and that his campaign won't be heard.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I'm ambivalent about McDonnell.

He's talking a good fight at the moment, but I remember him (back in the mists of antiquity when he sat on the GLC) as being unable to compromise, preferring theoretical purity to looking after the people who voted him in.

If people can convince me he's grown up, then fair enough.

 

[glenquagmire]

Doesn't look like he'll get on.

He won't get 40% in the unions. His message will not get through to most members (if it did he'd win!). UNISON for instance have published a list of all likely contenders including some unlikely ones but missed JMcD off the list! Fact is the union tops will do their damndest to ensure that JMcD won't even be acknowledged and that his campaign won't be heard.

The union bigwigs, especially Simpson and Prentis, will do their utmost to stop him getting anywhere but there are enough activists (yes, including many non-LPers) active lower down those unions, talking about redundancies, cuts, privatisations, outsourcing, pay restraint, and all the other things we're suffering under Brown. I was quite surprised at our shop meeting yesterday at the level of anger among totally "non-political" people who, with a little nudge, would vote for McDonnell regardless of what the Big 4 Gen Secs say.

Compromise over what, incidentally, Violent Panda?

 

[poster342002]

I was quite surprised at our shop meeting yesterday at the level of anger among totally "non-political" people

Christ, where the fuck are these people,? Because I never seem to find any of them in any workplace I'm ever in.

 

[Lock&Light]

the evidence of the past 6 elections strongly suggests this is in fact a contradiction in terms

What IS the evidence of the past 6 elections, (I assume you mean '83;'87;'92;'97;'01;'05), and is it so coherent as to strongly suggest anything?

 

[glenquagmire]

Christ, where the fuck are these people,? Because I never seem to find any of them in any workplace I'm ever in.

Public sector administrators, technicians, secretaries, facilities workers, etc.

Most of them would never join a demo, join a party or think about politics from one week to another. But if a ballot paper comes round with the name of a Chancellor on it who has announced he wants pay cuts, is negotiating the LGPS pension downwards, has forced a PFI rebuild on us along with redundancies and outsourcing, and is cutting the money available to our sector of education over the next few years, there is not a chance in hell they are going to put a cross next to him.

 

[Streathamite]

What IS the evidence of the past 6 elections, (I assume you mean '83;'87;'92;'97;'01;'05), and is it so coherent as to strongly suggest anything?

err yes, 1983 was the nearest labour came to a 'socialist' manifesto, and it got absolutely hammered, it's worse ever result. at every single election since then , it has moved steadily rightwards and - last, iraq-dominated election excepted - it did better and better with each rightward shift. it is now to the right of where the SDP were in 1983.
cleasr enough to me.

 

[belboid]

there vote actually fell in 01 too didnt it?

 

[poster342002]

err yes, 1983 was the nearest labour came to a 'socialist' manifesto, and it got absolutely hammered, it's worse ever result. at every single election since then , it has moved steadily rightwards and - last, iraq-dominated election excepted - it did better and better with each rightward shift.

That's true - and ain't it a depressing indictment of the utterly crap and reactionary political concience of the UK as a whole?

 

[glenquagmire]

I've heard lots of vague staff about positioning, soft left, hard left, socialist, whatever. Now I'd call myself a socialist but I guarantee that all the people who support these things in the opinion polls aren't:

- end occupation of Iraq
- renationalise railways
- stop funding faith schools
- stop giving private schools tax breaks
- contract in NHS cleaning
- stop wasting money on NHS consultants and closing hospitals instead

It says something when all of these positions are seen as extreme left by all three major parties, and yet all are widely popular among the electorate. Maybe connected to the falling levels of participation in general elections?

Oh, and all supported by John McD.

 

[Streathamite]

there vote actually fell in 01 too didnt it?

was thinking as a percentage
e2a; you're prolly right, even as a %age, however I guess the broader point is that they got far more than '83

 

[nightbreed]

How can all these people purport to support someone for the leadership of a party of which they say they are not members, and which they appear to hate?

This has been answered before.
Every member of a LP affiliated union has a vote in the LP leadership elections.
Not bad for a Capitalist party!!

 

[Groucho]

The union bigwigs, especially Simpson and Prentis, will do their utmost to stop him getting anywhere but there are enough activists (yes, including many non-LPers) active lower down those unions, talking about redundancies, cuts, privatisations, outsourcing, pay restraint, and all the other things we're suffering under Brown. I was quite surprised at our shop meeting yesterday at the level of anger among totally "non-political" people who, with a little nudge, would vote for McDonnell regardless of what the Big 4 Gen Secs say.

You are right excepting the vital point that the left activists who would put the case do not exist in sufficient numbers. Where an activist keys in to the anger and bitterness that exists and raises suport for McDonnell the votes will go in most part for JMcD, but in most workplaces I'm afraid the argument will not be put, even though the bitterness and anger is there. I'm not a pessimist. Prentis is for instance under growing pressure to ballot for strikes alongside PCS, but if the left activists existed in most local Govt and NHS offices the ballot for strike action would have been held already. I do believe that Prentis will have to ballot for action against his will sooner or later, and I actually think that task is easier than getting support for JMcD. For instance mention the LP to UNISON members and the first reaction you get is not 'if only we could change the leader' it is 'why the fuck do we give the scum money?'

All this is a mute point because I don't think he will get enough MPs to back him. I am wondering in fact where he will turn after that. His recent speeches have been quite pessimistic re changing New Labour.

 

[Guineveretoo]

This has been answered before.
Every member of a LP affiliated union has a vote in the LP leadership elections.
Not bad for a Capitalist party!!

So, everyone who purports to support John McDonnell is a member of an affiliated trade union?

You don't answer the other question about why they want to have anything to do with the Labour Party?

 

[Groucho]

So, everyone who purports to support John McDonnell is a member of an affiliated trade union?

You don't answer the other question about why they want to have anything to do with the Labour Party?

Unfortunately many of those who have attended TU activist meetings in support of JMcD have been members of non-affiliated unions such as the RMT and PCS and many have individually been members of RESPECT and/or SWP.

I hope JMcD does well. The left in and out of the LP would benefit if he did.

 

[Guineveretoo]

Unfortunately many of those who have attended TU activist meetings in support of JMcD have been members of non-affiliated unions such as the RMT and PCS and many have individually been members of RESPECT and/or SWP.

I hope JMcD does well. The left in and out of the LP would benefit if he did.

An awful lot of people who John McD claims have attended meetings in support of him have actually attended meetings for many other reasons, only for him to attempt to hijack said meeting by giving the same old tired speech about how we need him to lead the Labour Party. He does this regardless of the topic under discussion, or the reason he has been invited to speak. I can't even remember how many times I have heard it, and I have never supported him and never will. I may just have to walk out another time, so he doesn't count me as one of his supporters!

He is a one trick pony and his one trick isn't very good.

It would be a disaster if he became leader of the Labour Party, for everyone.

IMHO once more, of course

 

[nightbreed]

So, everyone who purports to support John McDonnell is a member of an affiliated trade union?

You don't answer the other question about why they want to have anything to do with the Labour Party?

Er.... No everyone has an oppurtunity to vote, if they are a member of an affiliated TU. Last October in a John McDonnell meeting in Southampton , a meeting of 30 Trade Unionists , including some Respect supporters and Socialist Party supporters agreed to campaign for and vote for J McD if he gets nominated.
If Campaigned upon locally this could enthuse many trade unionists disillusioned by new labour. What better way to introduce organised workers to socialist ideas?
Pity the FBU,RMT and PCS cant take part.

 

[nightbreed]

An awful lot of people who John McD claims have attended meetings in support of him have actually attended meetings for many other reasons, only for him to attempt to hijack said meeting by giving the same old tired speech about how we need him to lead the Labour Party. He does this regardless of the topic under discussion, or the reason he has been invited to speak. I can't even remember how many times I have heard it, and I have never supported him and never will. I may just have to walk out another time, so he doesn't count me as one of his supporters!

He is a one trick pony and his one trick isn't very good.

It would be a disaster if he became leader of the Labour Party, for everyone.

IMHO once more, of course

What complete bollocks. Let me know when you return from middle earth!!
Hijacking is the tactics of the SWP or the SP. If you actually had met J McD you wouldnt be saying that.
Tell me , are you in a non affiliated union?

 

[Guineveretoo]

Er.... No everyone has an oppurtunity to vote, if they are a member of an affiliated TU. Last October in a John McDonnell meeting in Southampton , a meeting of 30 Trade Unionists , including some Respect supporters and Socialist Party supporters agreed to campaign for and vote for J McD if he gets nominated.
If Campaigned upon locally this could enthuse many trade unionists disillusioned by new labour. What better way to introduce organised workers to socialist ideas?
Pity the FBU,RMT and PCS cant take part.

I am disillusioned by New Labour, and I am a member of a trade union which is affiliated to the Labour Party. I will not be supporting the candidacy of John McDonnell.

Just so we are clear

 

[Guineveretoo]

What complete bollocks. Let me know when you return from middle earth!!
Hijacking is the tactics of the SWP or the SP. If you actually had met J McD you wouldnt be saying that.
Tell me , are you in a non affiliated union?

I have met him lots of times, and I am a member of an affiliated trade union!

Which bit of what I said is "complete bollocks"? Every bit of it is true from my perspective, from the very many meetings when I have had the misfortune to hear him spout his nonsense.

 

[nightbreed]

I have met him lots of times, and I am a member of an affiliated trade union!

Which bit of what I said is "complete bollocks"? Every bit of it is true from my perspective, from the very many meetings when I have had the misfortune to hear him spout his nonsense.

Fuck me,
I am glad because you're in a minority then.
Bollocks ; because the trade unionists I have seen at J McD meetings havent been contaminated by the shit coming from some of the far left. They are genuine class fighters just interested in their own workplaces where their members are facing daily crap from their employers.
To date NO political alternative has been offered them. Now there is.

If John McD doesnt get the nominations, well there is something to build on.