Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by hash tag, Jun 24, 2016.
Sorry I don't know.
Egg custard or proletarian Birds?
Let me finish this jumper I'm knitting out of free range yogurt...
So the only fly in the ointment if, as it looks, we are heading for BINO/Brexit lite is that the potential casus belli between the soft left and the Corbynites has evaporated. Which means that he and his cronies are safe. And that Tory rule until 2027 is nailed on.
Why do you think Labour will lose the next GE Silas? Whatever brexit we get we will still have a Tory government that does nothing for the poor & increasingly the younger middle class by not facilitating affordable housing or any housing at all. However brexit ends up nobody is going to end up thankng the Tories by voting for them. At last GE Labour done better than expected & there is no reason they should not improve on that next time.
Because Corbyn has a low ceiling, as evidenced by the failure of Tory disarray to have much of an impact on the polls.
These will be polls that predicted the Tory landslide at last GE yes? I don’t think the extra voters that swung it for Labour were are or will be reachable by pollsters hence the inaccuracy of polling.
I think Corbyn is a wily old fox on this...he is keeping his powder dry as he needs do little at the moment while the Tories continue to disgrace themselves, he has restricted himself to a few crucial remarks at PMQs. Sharp
Telephone polls are increasingly losing any relevance, Most 18-35's who don't live with parents (ALL the ones I know) don't have a landline just a mobile, this is the most important demographic that voted Labour at the last election yet polls won't detect them.
As for those that do still live with their parents they get lost in the static, No-one polled the BemusedbyLife family home last time but they would have got a different answer depending on who answered, I only answer the phone if I'm the only one home and I actually hear it ring but I would have told them Labour, Mum would have said Tory but changed her mind after my big sister poured scorn on the idea (actually voted LibDem), Dad would have told them to sod off and whatever they were selling he wouldn't buy it.
how do they do gaming then - without broadband.
Having a landline doesn't mean you have a phone plugged into it.
Our phone broke about 6 months ago. Haven't missed it.
Sorry I meant no landline phone not no physical landline, I don't know if everyone I know has broadband though I imagine so, I know for a fact both my sisters do and neither have a phone.
A) Phone pollsters call mobiles.
Polling certainly isn't an exact science, but they aren't utterly terrible at what they do, and some of the reasons people give for not trusting pollsters reveal a startling lack of knowledge about what they do.
I didn't know they called mobiles, but if that's the case I would wonder how they get a proper balance of people to call, with landlines you can look at a map and take at least a guess as to whether people living in a certain area are living on the breadline or rolling in cash not so with mobiles.
B) Screening qualifiers
This is pretty basic, you know.
I've had repeated calls from MORI from an Edinburgh number to my mobile, unlike the landline I can and have, set my phone up to block them
You can email MORI and ask them not to call you and they will respect that. I agree it's easier on a mobile.
Does anyone under 80 answer the landline to unexpected calls? I don't even anser my mobile to unknown numbers.
I use landline to send and receive overseas calls, and it doesn't ring that often, usually a wrong number
Local elections next year will be telling. If Labour can't get a bump they've reached peak Corbyn, if they do we'll start to get the May is going date mooted.
I don't answer unknown calls, I would but I've not had a recent car accident.
we can arrange one for you.
If I die in a tunnel crash tonight we'll all know you work for Prince Philip and MI5.
And the solidly remainer parties, SNP and lib dems, will now view Corbyn as their only hope even if he really isn't.
I'm not disagreeing with you just curious how they could produce much of a valid weighting, Approaching people in the street you can tell whether someone is old or young, male or female, ethnic origins, whether or not they look prosperous, phoing up on landlines isn't as good but at least you can throw in a few other criteria. Mobiles they will have no pre-available data at all (Yes I know there are sources for finding some info but humour me and lets pretend that people take Data Protection seriously).
They are going to have to ring a LOT of mobiles to get a sufficient spread and the fact that I didn't know they did because no-one has told me and they've never called me implies they may not ring enough.
I'm not sure radio silence is a good plan to push Labour over the top. Given that I'm sure the Tories will be bringing at least their B game next election and not the D game May did last time.
did work for Fayed for a while
On current evidence the tories' B game is probably worse than their D game. And I'm sure Labour aren't going to stick to radio silence indefinitely, although it's not inconcievable that they could win an election even with no clear brexit policy.
They will ask age, income, gender, ethnicity, voting history etc as part of the questionnaire. It may be that if someone is outside of the sample frame, or they already have too many respondents from that category, they will abandon the call.
And then, of course, they will weight. By all sorts of factors.
There's sometimes a big delta between online pollsters and phone pollsters. That was the case for Brexit. Sometimes the delta is between the pollsters with panels and those who use a fresh survey population each time. And sometimes the differences between pollsters are all about weighting methodology. That was the case in 2015 and to a lesser extent in 2017. 2015 was also complicated by herding.
Trends within individual pollsters - especially when the methodology remains constant - are key. That's where the findings that Labour hasn't benefited from Tory disarray tend to come from.
They have a B game?
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