Israel will bomb the Iranian nuclear sites.

[butchersapron]

Who knows what they really have in mind. I could understand why they may feel threatened by Iranian nuclear capability. Couldnt you?

What an amazing basis for international relations and your understanding thereof.

 

[lenny101]

I reckon they'll do it eventually and it'll trigger a staggering wave of violence across the Middle East. May take a while though, just feels like an inevitability given the governments involved.

Imagine. A wave of violence in the middle east.

 

[obanite]

I know

But there needs to be something done about the behaviour of the Iranian Govt. Calling for Israel to be wiped off the map is taking the matter beyond the pale.

It doesn't do much for the prospects of a just settlement in the ME either. Though I do wonder if there was a different govt in Tehran would it remove the funds and support that groups like Hamas and Hizbollah get.

Yeah, someone in a country thousands of miles away from us says something bad, the immediate response should be to bomb the living fuck out of them, am I right?

It has come to this.

 

[sleaterkinney]

It's not.

I could see bush doing a limited strike before he leaves office.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Well, for a long time I've thought that Cheney would like to start a war with Iran before leaving office, it's his last chance after all, and Israel taking unilateral action might be just the fig-leaf the he needs.

It's probably not a very sensible idea though.

The Sadrists backed off at the end of last year from a massive confrontation with the US that at the time seemed almost inevitable and which they'd almost certainly have come out on top of.

My guess is that they did this at the behest of Iran, because a) Iran would benefit from removing plausible excuses for the US attacking them (you may have noticed that they've become extremely reasonable about their nuclear programme lately too) and b) it leaves the Sadr movement and other Iranian influenced orgnisations in Iraq with more time to organise for a big push to cut off US supply lines to Kuwait in the event of an attack on Iran.

 

[camouflage]

Well lets start by not confusing the rhetoric of their president, for the actual policies the Iranian government carry out.

This is after all the same country that called America The Great Satan for decades, but never actually did much.

These slogans could be far more about domestic propaganda to gain internal support, than anything they will actually do on the international stage?

And Ive always thought the suggestion that they could attack Israel with Nuclear weapons seemed to have some flaws, such as the Palestinian people being in the same location.

I aint no fan of the Iranian regime, and its not relaxing to think of them with nukes, but changing their regime is not our business really. Lets not forget how that regime got into power in the first place.

And remember, the Persians have been at this civilisation game for a very long time, so trying to talk about em like the maiden-theiving 'mad beast' in some old school recruitment poster just because the likes of Fox News told you to is dumb.

 

[YouSir]

Imagine. A wave of violence in the middle east.

A bigger wave of violence. A tsunami if you will. A tsunami of violence.

 

[obanite]

I don't know much about this crazy, crazy world, but I do know this: If you don't let us fuck this asshole, we're going to have our dicks and pussies all covered in shit!

Fuck yea! If only more people shot from the hip, hey?!?

 

[elbows]

Yes, that's part of the 'play'. Do you think the Iranoan theocracy are unaware of these minor one off in very differeent circumstances? They don't equarte to credibilioty in the future in any way, othr than the way on which Germany might suddenly invade France today because it did it in the past.

Im not saying its the same situation as the attacks in the past, but surely if you are looking at the credibility of threats, whether the threatening nation has a track record of that sort of thing does count for something.

The German regime of today is rather different than the one that invaded France, wheras as best I can tell Israel has not changed radically since it attacked other enemies nuclear facilities.

 

[butchersapron]

I could see bush doing a limited strike before he leaves office.

Fair enough, But IMO, never in a million billion years. The US ruling class doesn't do things like that. I'll just fuck this up for the next one. It's not about ttis stuff, it's not about democrat vs republican, it never was. It's about the pursuit of their common interests and some one just shitting on them out of spite is not going to happen.

 

[goldenecitrone]

What an amazing basis for international relations and your understanding thereof.

I prefer diplomacy everytime. And threats are always part of that. Luckily I don't work in the higher echelons of diplomacy and am only posting on a bulletin board. But I defer to your position, obviously.

 

[lenny101]

A bigger wave of violence. A tsunami if you will. A tsunami of violence.

What the fuck are you talking about?

 

[butchersapron]

Im not saying its the same situation as the attacks in the past, but surely if you are looking at the credibility of threats, whether the threatening nation has a track record of that sort of thing does count for something.

The German regime of today is rather different than the one that invaded France, wheras as best I can tell Israel has not changed radically since it attacked other enemies nuclear facilities.

Sure. And you'd have to say that a track record has many things going into it = the nature of the target, intenation opposition, local troubles, support etc - and i don't see how a security bod of the Iranian theocray wouild come out with anything other than they're just sabre rattling for various reasons. We're 100% safe.

 

[elbows]

And remember, the Persians have been at this civilisation game for a very long time, so trying to talk about em like the maiden-theiving 'mad beast' in some old school recruitment poster just because the likes of Fox News told you to is dumb.

Mmm yes, in a few ways they have similar attitudes to the British, in that they used to be an empire and some of that pride lingers on.

Still they might be playing the 'mad beast' card themselves deliberately. The US do it, the 'crazy man' theory that suggests it is a good idea for the government to appear like they might be rabid warmongers, unpredictable. It even mentions that it might be a good idea for one person in the government to look like a loose cannon. This is supposed to stop your enemies laughing at your threats, and take it more seriously.

 

[YouSir]

What the fuck are you talking about?

I assumed you were taking the piss, so I clarified by saying that there would be a far worse wave of violence in the region as a whole, hence the tsunami reference, big wave... etc...

Stating the obvious perhaps, but I didn't expect to have to explain it.

 

[obanite]

Heh, reminds me of Civilization (the game). "We laugh at your empty threats!"

 

[lenny101]

I assumed you were taking the piss, so I clarified by saying that there would be a far worse wave of violence in the region as a whole, hence the tsunami reference, big wave... etc...

Stating the obvious perhaps, but I didn't expect to have to explain it.

It will not happen. Try reading a history book.

 

[YouSir]

It will not happen. Try reading a history book.

Israel wouldn't undertake limited strikes against supposed nuclear facilities in Iran? Or you wouldn't take the piss?

 

[Sasaferrato]

I'd quite like to see the nasty Iranian Govt destroyed. I don't think Israel doing it would be a good idea.

An international force attacking the nuclear facilities is a much better prospect.

Israel has nuclear weapons as a last resort somehow I don't trust the Iranians to have the same attitudes.

If Israel is ever really in danger of annihilation, they will launch their nukes.

 

[mauvais]

WHAT IF Israel go to bomb Iran but Iran isn't in and instead it's a giant evil robot with big claw hands and it's like 'YUMMY! FIGHTER JETS' and the Israeli pilots are like 'AAHHH MUMMY' and they get caught by the claws and ripped out of their planes and made to do three hundred hours of community service mopping up sick, and the Israelis are like 'umm err that's NUCLEAR VOM!' and the Israeli people are like 'ALRIGHT WE AGREE' and so they send in even more fighter jets and the robot claw is overwhelmed and the bombs fall on the reactor but it turns out it's not an ordinary nuclear reactor it's a secret factory where brainwronged scientists do horrible experiments on hens and the damage lets the hens escape and they all fly into Israel and the rest of the Israeli airforce that didn't get clawed is like 'SWITCH TO GUNS' but the guns don't work because the hens have got there first and the guns are full of eggs and you can't shoot eggs it makes a mess and the pilots are like 'WE WERE NEVER TRAINED FOR THIS! EJECT EJECT' and basically the whole Middle East collapses into a pitched battle where men of all races and sides join together in a futile desperate last stand against an apocalyptic tide of mutant poultry? What THEN, hypothetically speaking?

 

[butchersapron]

If Israel is ever really in danger of annihilation, they will launch their nukes.

Your 'really' betrays too much - clever jew.

 

[elbows]

I assume he neans the larger wave of vionece wouldnt happen.

One of the predictions of some anti-Iraq war people was that it would cause spiralling violence. This didnt happen, at least not so far.

Iran does have far greater capability to retaliate than Iraq had, especially in terms of disruption oil transportation in the strait of Hormuz. Thats probably one of the big risks that would put Israel and the US off attacking Iran.

 

[goldenecitrone]

If Israel is ever really in danger of annihilation, they will launch their nukes.

What if it collapses from the inside?

 

[lenny101]

WHAT IF Israel go to bomb Iran but Iran isn't in and instead it's a giant evil robot with big claw hands and it's like 'YUMMY! FIGHTER JETS' and the Israeli pilots are like 'AAHHH MUMMY' and they get caught by the claws and ripped out of their planes and made to do three hundred hours of community service mopping up sick, and the Israelis are like 'umm err that's NUCLEAR VOM!' and the Israeli people are like 'ALRIGHT WE AGREE' and so they send in even more fighter jets and the robot claw is overwhelmed and the bombs fall on the reactor but it turns out it's not an ordinary nuclear reactor it's a secret factory where brainwronged scientists do horrible experiments on hens and the damage lets the hens escape and they all fly into Israel and the rest of the Israeli airforce that didn't get clawed is like 'SWITCH TO GUNS' but the guns don't work because the hens have got there first and the guns are full of eggs and you can't shoot eggs it makes a mess and the pilots are like 'WE WERE NEVER TRAINED FOR THIS! EJECT EJECT' and basically the whole Middle East collapses into a pitched battle where men of all races and sides join together in a futile desperate last stand against an apocalyptic tide of mutant poultry? What THEN, hypothetically speaking?

A tsunami of violence imo.

 

[elbows]

What if it collapses from the inside?

There are some demographic problems that Israel faces which could cause this. If we end up with a 2 state solution then it will be partly for these reasons, if Israel wants to avoid having an arab majority population then they probably have to do it eventually? (my knowledge is rather limited on this issue)

 

[goldenecitrone]

Your 'really' betrays too much - clever jew.

Typical freemason.

 

[YouSir]

I assume he neans the larger wave of vionece wouldnt happen.

One of the predictions of some anti-Iraq war people was that it would cause spiralling violence. This didnt happen, at least not so far.

Iran does have far greater capability to retaliate than Iraq had, especially in terms of disruption oil transportation in the strait of Hormuz. Thats probably one of the big risks that would put Israel and the US off attacking Iran.

Right so. Suspect that Iran has more 'reach' than Iraq did though, via groups like Hizbollah who, if their benefactor was under attack from their arch enemy, would presumably ratchet up their attacks again. Plus Iran, even if it's not quite the right kind of Islamic state, is an Islamic state, Iraq wasn't, so I'd assume it'd garner more popular sympathy for that. From regional populations I mean, not governments.

 

[YouSir]

A tsunami of violence imo.

See? I knew that'd catch on. May have to get in touch with Fox News, bet they could use it at least a dozen times a day.

 

[laptop]

See? I knew that'd catch on. May have to get in touch with Fox News, bet they could use it at least a dozen times a day.

Noo! Apply for a trade mark first

 

[mauvais]

A tsunami of violence imo.

Bigger than a tsunami. Maybe even an origami. That's three and a half times bigger IMO.