ADC: "ADC is not a regular forum poster and coming here he noticed that Rachamim18 seemed to be overly represented, etc.": Cool. I happen to agree on that note. Forgive me then for being defencive so to speak but even a cursory glance would offer my rationale I am sure.
"Widely known that Israel is looking for a rematch with Hezbollah and will take the first chance for it.": Beg to differ. As someone who only left the IDF 15 months ago, and still has 2 kids in it I offer that I am more than a bit familiar with IDF doctrine and policy. I was an Infantry officer who commanded in the 2006 War (among 3 others) and "confrontation" was never an objective or desire. Containment is all one hopes for when dealing with an Assymetrical Opposition. One cannot "defeat" such an enemy.
The only way to truly defeat Hezbollah would be to commit genocide and even then there would be 3 other organisations popping up to replace it. All the more so given the 4 way alliance cemmented in Damascus last winter where Syria, Iran, HAMAS, and Hezbollah inked a united front. Ergo, a war with Hezbollah will almost certainly devolve into a free for all and could very well develop into a nuclear war.
"Hezbollah fought Israel to a stalemate.": I do not want to be arrogant or insulting but I am not sure what your military experience is to draw such a conclusion.": I might have adreessed the following but wars are fought on "Objectives." The Primary Objective in 2006 was pushing Hezbollah back 15 kilometers. We were given 10 days to do this. We did it in 4 as far as their main elements were concerned. We ended up with 40 klicks front to back and them begging for a Ceasefire.
We had a 40:1 Kill Ratio for most of the war and ended up with a solid 10:1 in terms of 10 confirmed militants for every 1 Israeli casualty and that is not segregating IDF casualties from Israeli non-combatants, if we want to do that it ends up at 23:1.
Most non-military people believe that a victory can only be claimed if you wipe out an emey or totally destroy its infrastrcutre. Any military person knows that this is an impossible task with an organisation like Hezbollah which only wears uniforms in PR stills and training videos. Although a few were wearing surplus IDF gear, most were entirely plain clothed and we weeded militants out house by house, street by street, village by village for the 2 provinces that comprised our theater.
They scored a grand total of 1 kill in terms of our Armour and that was their whole claim to fame! They did nothing suprising aside from having a much better telecom network than expected, more extensive tunneling than expected, and using Anti-Tank gear against our Infantry but aside from that last one, it did not matter! Their biggest victory? using an Anti-Tank round, probably cvompletely ignorantly (i.e. in untrained fashion) and scoring 9 kills when it ignited some of THIER cached ammo in a house, and that house came down on a platoon killing 1.5 squads (9 Infantrymen). You call that a victory?
Where is Hezbollah now? Running simulations in Beka'a with their Iranian handlers, and seelling trinkets and pics in S. Beirut.
"Initial Israeli victory...": Given the fact that they begged for the Ceasefire, and that we were racking kills until literally the very last moment I would imagine you ought to rethink your statement to say the least. We emerged stronger than before, they emerged like a whipped dog in a downpour, although they have rearmed by now and count on that 4 way alliance as a political victory, along with their headstrong victory in a war of wills against the Lebanese Govt.
The Lebanese Govt. is weak, bland, and a host of other ill things but it is not stupid. It wishes to preserve the illusion of independance and so it will never willingly engage Israel on any military level and barely summons the courage to do so politically. Hezbollah is driving THAT train and just might drive it over a cliff. Syria does not even recognise the existence of Lebanon, let alone would it even consider an alliance, tacit or otherwise, with the Lebanese Govt. aside from Hezbollah.
Lebanon is like a shattered egg that someone has painstakingly glued back together, and set back on a teetering edge. It was artificially created by the French to serve the THEN majority (and now minority) Maronite Christians. Each ethnicity has its own army, even the Armenians, and alliances change every other day. This has been the case since the early 1960s but has only gotten progressively worse over the ensuing years.
Hebollah made an important move just yesterday when it vowed to never put down its arms even if Israel surrenders the portion of Sheba'a held by it. Hezbollah's whole raison d'ere was its role as a "Resistance Force" against the "bullying Israelis." Israel left Lebanon in 2000 and only returned when directly attacked. Of course Israel left again with the 2006 Cease Fire (Res. 1701) and only still has part of Sheba'a. Yet, Hezbollah will not put down its guns even when Israel leaves that small parcel. With its inclusion of Hezbollah the LEbanese Govt. has m,ade its bed. There might come a time when they are forced to lie in it but Israel is not looking forward to it.
We are a tiny, tiny, tiny nation and every military operation takes a heavy toll on us as a society and as an economy. Yes, if they push it will come ot shove but it is not the first choice by any means.
