Is Brexit still actually going to happen (2019)?

[Poi E]

Even if it's no deal, I think there'll be an period of transition agreed to allow both sides to prepare, a crash out is in no ones interest.

Which would be a deal of sorts, no?

 

[chilango]

You need more than one vote option. I want to say that I think Parliament will revoke A50 but I don't want anyone to think I'm daft enough to believe they'll ask the proles again.

That's kinda my thinking too

 

[cupid_stunt]

Which would be a deal of sorts, no?

It would be a no deal, but not a crash out.

 

[Poi E]

Effectively an extension of Article 50, then?

 

[Raheem]

Which would be a deal of sorts, no?

You could have a short period where things are phased in. Technically, the EU would be supposed to start applying tariffs and doing all the other things at 11 pm on 29 March. But member states could probably get away with saying it will take 30 days or something. Same on our side.

I say 'probably', but I'm obviously not able to cite any precedent or anything. But doing things as they should be done is surely not going to be possible anyway.

It's not the same as an A50 extension, because it wouldn't be being done pending something. It would just be slowing down the crash-out.

Not to ignore the question of how Ireland is supposed to respond in that scenario.

 

[chilango]

That's kinda my thinking too

I don't think there'll be a 2nd Ref. (Or a GE). I don't think May will get any sort of Deal through in time .I don't think "no deal" will be allowed to happen...which leaves none of the in the table options happening so my guess is a last minute pulling the plug to buy time to figure out what the hell to do. That might mean cobbling together a deal at May's expense. It might just be the latest in a series of can kicking exercises that will continue until they reckon they can get away with stashing Brexit in the back of the cupboard and forgetting about it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, 18% ATM stills thinks there will be a second referendum, or parliament will revoke Article 50, that surprises me.

 

[eoin_k]

So, 18% ATM stills thinks there will be a second referendum, or parliament will revoke Article 50, that surprises me.

Down from 50%

 

[Pickman's model]

I would never dream of trying to usurp the epic brexit thread, but its polling data is now two-and-a-half years out of date. Might it be time for another vote? Not a second referendum as such, just a poll to see which way urbanites now sees the wind blowing?

Can we now think the unthinkable, dream the impossible dream, or at least foresee what lies ahead any more clearly?

Will brexit happen?

The polling on the auld thread has continued, as anyone paying attention to the poll can aver. Recent votes have been for the face-saving fudge option which only made it above 50% towards the end of last year

 

[Pickman's model]

I would never dream of trying to usurp the epic brexit thread, but its polling data is now two-and-a-half years out of date. Might it be time for another vote? Not a second referendum as such, just a poll to see which way urbanites now sees the wind blowing?

Can we now think the unthinkable, dream the impossible dream, or at least foresee what lies ahead any more clearly?

Will brexit happen?

Oh and one great advantage the auld thread had over this one was its public poll

 

[newbie]

the BBC's Europe Editor (Katya Adler, who it well worth listening to) says that the EU isn't going to seriously negotiate to avoid a hard brexit until the middle of March, and that the EU, member states and the UK government are now running to that timetable - serious negotiations for a week/10 days, agreement (or not), and a short (few weeks/a month) extention of A50 in order to legislate for it.

this, more or less, and when it comes to the wire most Labour mps will vote for her deal- with whatever backstop fudge she cobbles together- rather than risking their seats on the offshore tax haven the ERG are pushing.

 

[stavros]

Thread title fail

Take back control, Eoin!

 

[ska invita]

I feel differently on different days but this morning Im back on the notion that May will get a deal passed and whats more once it goes through May will get a big bounce for having pulled it off, eulogies will start flying in from the commentariat about her resilience, and the Tories will go on to win the next election.

I think i need a tea.

 

[brogdale]

I feel differently on different days but this morning Im back on the notion that May will get a deal passed and whats more once it goes through May will get a big bounce for having pulled it off, eulogies will start flying in from the commentariat about her resilience, and the Tories will go on to win the next election.

I think i need a tea.

That's their plan, alright.

 

[Poot]

I feel differently on different days but this morning Im back on the notion that May will get a deal passed and whats more once it goes through May will get a big bounce for having pulled it off, eulogies will start flying in from the commentariat about her resilience, and the Tories will go on to win the next election.

I think i need a tea.

Liked not because I like it but because I have a similar feeling.

I think history will forget this period of almost unendurable, unforgivable fucking about and she will end up being lauded for 'being patient'.Or something.

I also think there will be more of a delay than anyone thinks, too.

 

[tommers]

What was wrong with the last poll? It gave a clear mandate. I can't believe you've subverted democracy by having another one.

 

[JuanTwoThree]

In The Phantom Tollbooth Milo meets a person who is advertised as the smallest giant in the world, who then pops back into a house and emerges this time advertised as the tallest midget in the world.

If Remain had won there'd have still had to be some rethink of the UK's relationship with the EU. However that might have turned out would have been uncannily similar to however this process may pan out, when all the dust settles. It's like those 'choose-the next-chapter' books that all end the same way.

I have dodgy metaphors that don't bear much scrutiny for almost anything.

 

[NoXion]

At this point I honestly just don't fucking know. I have the feeling that the May doesn't either.

I'm kind of hoping that they will be stupid enough to cancel A50 and try to pin it on May.

 

[brogdale]

At this point I honestly just don't fucking know. I have the feeling that the May doesn't either.

I'm kind of hoping that they will be stupid enough to cancel A50 and try to pin it on May.

I think she does...and has done all along; take it to Brex-eve and then Parliament has the choice between her 'last turkey in the shop' deal or putting off Xmas for years/ever(?)

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm kind of hoping that they will be stupid enough to cancel A50 and try to pin it on May.

i can't see what else the endgame is

if mps vote for the deal they will be excoriated for years to come
if they don't vote for the deal they will be excoriated for years to come
but if they vote to revoke article 50 there will be precious few people who want to go through another three years of bollocks like the last three.

 

[8ball]

At this point I honestly just don't fucking know. I have the feeling that the May doesn't either.

I'm kind of hoping that they will be stupid enough to cancel A50 and try to pin it on May.

Both parties are just desperately trying to avoid splits and everyone else in the country can get to fuck.

 

[MickiQ]

She's not in the business of totally destroying the Tory party.

She is doing a good job of it though whether she means to or not

 

[MickiQ]

I still think no deal crash out is most likely (I really want to be wrong) but I have so little faith in this collection of self-serving 'shit for brains' that I see us just sliding into it.

 

[Ranbay]

I still think no deal crash out is most likely (I really want to be wrong) but I have so little faith in this collection of self-serving 'shit for brains' that I see us just sliding into it.

I kinda want a no deal crash out so i can tell people, fucking told you so you daft cunts.

 

[Ranbay]

Also I think the increase in the cost of living drop in standards, lack of medicine and food would be insignificant compared to the feeling I would get telling people they were cunts.

 

[SpineyNorman]

I reckon the most likely outcome is some variant of May's deal, with platitudes about workers rights thrown in. Helped across the line by the labour right.

I haven't really got a clue though.

 

[SpineyNorman]

And, to piss on Pickman's model's parade , before he pops up & points out the results are not public.

publick

 

[SpineyNorman]

I don't agree. She can fail to get her deal, rescind/extend A50 because the consequences to the nation are too severe, and then resign, at least limiting the damage to her political tombstone. She just can't survive doing it.

Of course, this is only one episode, it doesn't kill Brexit.

Since her every move now appears to be calculated to limit damage to the conservative party to the exclusion of pretty much everything else I can't see it. Theoretically possible but politically unlikely.

If I'm wrong it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong about Brexit so I can't completely dismiss (I'm always right about everything else though )

 

[Teaboy]

I reckon the most likely outcome is some variant of May's deal, with platitudes about workers rights thrown in. Helped across the line by the labour right.

I haven't really got a clue though.

Yeah, I've been thinking this for some time. Push the vote back to the very last possible moment whilst sending out ministers to threaten a no deal scenario one day and then a no Brexit scenario the next (see today's papers). Get enough MP's from both sides of the debates spooked about differing scenarios and creep her deal across the line. Its grim, but this is an interesting point:

If Remain had won there'd have still had to be some rethink of the UK's relationship with the EU. However that might have turned out would have been uncannily similar to however this process may pan out, when all the dust settles. It's like those 'choose-the next-chapter' books that all end the same way.

 

[mauvais]

Since her every move now appears to be calculated to limit damage to the conservative party to the exclusion of pretty much everything else I can't see it. Theoretically possible but politically unlikely.

If I'm wrong it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong about Brexit so I can't completely dismiss (I'm always right about everything else though )

The outcome of no-deal would be even more damaging to the party than the internal struggle, would it not? It'd be the stick to beat them with for all time.