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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


  • Total voters
    354

Pickman's model

every man and every woman is a star
not really, Good Results on the stock market don't have much actual impact at all on the lives of ordinary people, whilst you (well some people probably not you) could argue that the huge amount of money tied up in Pension Funds makes us all stakeholders, it's so remote from the lives of most people that the effect is minimal.
Bad Results on the other hand do mean doom and gloom because companies react negatively to it often with cutbacks.
So whilst we want Good Results and they are overall a goodish thing it's more because we really don't want bad results.
Good results are predicated either on companies exploiting people really well or fat pig gamblers gambling
 

Pickman's model

every man and every woman is a star
And vice versa.

I'm not sure that describing it as "Windrush mk II" is particularly enlightening or helpful though
yeh, uk nationals in europe will be treated the same way as eu citizens here, so much misery all round. and i wouldn't describe it as windrush mark 2, not least because in windrush mark i the government admitted it'd been wrong (even if it hasn't done much to make it right)
 

Flavour

hang the bankers
i think we'll see a disparity in the treatment of uk nationals according to which euro country it is. those that benefit from tourism and british pensioners spending their money there probably won't want to make life too hard for them (looking primarily at Spain) while others for whom the british can't be said to add much to the economy but perhaps just fuck around without paying many taxes might go harder (Germany - thinking mainly of Berlin)
 

Idris2002

Taffy, you're a genius!
I've been meaning to ask - I keep seeing stuff claiming that shadowy people in the global financial markets would benefit from a no-deal, crashout Brexit, and that this is still therefore on the cards, regardless of what Boris says or does.

Is there any truth at all to that one? I write as someone for whom this sort of thing is above his pay grade.
 

Pickman's model

every man and every woman is a star
I've been meaning to ask - I keep seeing stuff claiming that shadowy people in the global financial markets would benefit from a no-deal, crashout Brexit, and that this is still therefore on the cards, regardless of what Boris says or does.

Is there any truth at all to that one? I write as someone for whom this sort of thing is above his pay grade.
people in the global financial markets win whether or not there's a no-deal, crashout brexit.
 

two sheds

Least noticed poster 2007
Well, yes, quite, but there was talk of a bigger than normal pay day for the stripy shirted shits in the even of a no-deal crash landing.
Not sure myself, but the larger the swings in currency, share values, hedge funds etc the more profit is there to be made. Particularly if you've got the fast software (and inside knowledge) to take advantage.
 

kabbes

"A top 400 poster"
I've been meaning to ask - I keep seeing stuff claiming that shadowy people in the global financial markets would benefit from a no-deal, crashout Brexit, and that this is still therefore on the cards, regardless of what Boris says or does.

Is there any truth at all to that one? I write as someone for whom this sort of thing is above his pay grade.
Some will profit. A lot more will lose, though — and much of these losers is serious capital. If I was betting on an outcome based on where the heavyweight interests lie, it would have been on staying in the EU. I think all this shows that these powerbrokers don’t quite have the power they thought they did.
 

two sheds

Least noticed poster 2007
Some will profit. A lot more will lose, though — and much of these losers is serious capital. If I was betting on an outcome based on where the heavyweight interests lie, it would have been on staying in the EU. I think all this shows that these powerbrokers don’t quite have the power they thought they did.
Won't the losers include the more conservative investors like Pension Funds, so the rest of us?
 

kabbes

"A top 400 poster"
Won't the losers include the more conservative investors like Pension Funds, so the rest of us?
Probably. I was talking about businesses rather than investors, but even so—probably.

It’s so hard to predict, though, because markets are so driven by sentiment and by comparative advantage (after all, the money always has to be somewhere). A collapse in GBP, for example, is a problem if you’re a local UK importer. But if you’re UK oil company, your profit in GBP has just increased. And the pension company is also better off if it has invested in USD companies. So where is your pension invested — local UK importer, UK multinational or US?

And when Johnson got in, the rebound from relief at avoiding Corbyn was so great that it seemed to overwhelm the Brexit worries sentiment overrules all in the short term.

In the long run, the pension scheme is invested in mostly UK but also worldwide capital interests, ie industry. So in the long run, in sure it will be just fine. Capital still rules the world.
 

SpackleFrog

Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Over 50% of us in the poll on this thread thought Brexit would never happen - anyone still feel that way?
Good question.

I have to say my assumption was that we would end up staying in the single market and this would be sold as Brexit - so yeah didn't think it would happen in a meaningful way.

I suppose I didn't expect the sheer veracity of the campaign to ignore/overturn/cancel the referendum, which I think made a sort of pseudo Brexit/staying in the single market impossible.

May/Johnson's deal still allows for EU/ECJ intervention in to the UK economy, and given that we don't yet know what the terms of trade access with the EU would be, we don't knwo how wide ranging they would be.

It's definitely a fudge and not a dramatic departure from the EU - at least at this stage. But I think that will just anger people more eventually and means that a) Brexit will continue as an issue and b) further divergence will follow.
 

SpackleFrog

Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Not quite sure what this is by the way but it's a thing:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">We’re in the first meeting of the EU-UK Friendship group, chaired by <a href="Terry Reintke (@TerryReintke) on Twitter">@TerryReintke</a>, talking about how we can maintain our links with our friends &amp; colleagues in EU Parliament. This will be a cross-party group, to promote values of democracy &amp; human rights 🇪🇺🇬🇧💚 <a href="#Erasmus hashtag on Twitter">#Erasmus</a> <a href="News about #Brexit on Twitter">#Brexit</a> <a href="Gina Dowding MEP on Twitter">pic.twitter.com/IwFrJ4HkIt</a></p>&mdash; Gina Dowding MEP (@GinaDowdingMEP) <a href="">January 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Poot

Everyone's a superhero, everyone's a Captain Kirk
Definitely going for the older crowd, seeing as we haven't used "bobs" in nearly 50 years.
Imagine if you had tendered for the repair and maintenance of Big Ben. You'd given your carefully constructed estimated timescales (four years in total) and your price. You'd hired a team of experts to carry out research and carefully restore it, and then suddenly that fuckwit comes crashing in and says he wants it for a fortnight Friday.

:rolleyes:
 

Poot

Everyone's a superhero, everyone's a Captain Kirk
Lets face it this scenario is fairly unlikely - whoever got it probably just whacked in the lowest bid and worked out the details after.
I think you're failing to understand that this is Westminster and there's glory (and cash) to be had. It'll be someone's artisanal brother-in-law doing the experting at great expense. Probably.
 

Pickman's model

every man and every woman is a star
My only hope for this next few years is that after years of warnings about the shoddy state of the building, parliament legit falls down while the bastards are in session.
while from beneath their feet the odorous thames bubbles up and drowns the villains in their seats
 
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