IS BREXIT ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN? I dont think Brexit is going to happen. The forces who don't want it to happen are too great. Opposed are the majority of the british political establishment, the Civil Service, the education and arts institutions, the City of London, large corporate interests, the TUC, the US, the EU, international finance, Scotland, Northern Ireland and half the population - and that proportion is likely to grow as the cluster fuck unfolds. For Brexit - UKIP, some of the right wing press plus Tory Euro Sceptics - whose leading lights suddenly seem distinctly half arsed about the prospect. Plus whatever pressure the democratic mandate of a 52-48% referendum result can bring to bear. As well as the political and popular resistance to brexit – not forgetting the parliamentary blocs than could be thrown in the way - there is the herculean task of unpicking the legal ties of the UK from the EU, the massive disruption to the economy and people’s lives plus the prospect of Scotland going independent and the mess it will make of Northern Ireland. Where is the political will and influence that is going to push all this through? How much popular support is there going to be for this move as it become clear that it is not going to free up loads of cash, it wont reduce immigration and it will likely have negative effects on things like pensions, house prices, unemployment, regional funding in places like wales and cornwall, the cost of imports, holidays – plus the likely hood of recession. I don’t see it happening. There will be climbdowns and fudges and lots of jiggery pokery until there’s just enough argument for a second referendum and we will be back where we where – apart from seeing the near complete meltdown of the british political establishment and possible splitting or even destruction of both of the main parties.