And there are plenty of conflicting centers of gravity in the Iranian political system. The new Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has his power center in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the SS to the regular Iranian Army’s Wehrmacht. He was elected in opposition to many of the mullahs of the ruling religious establishment, and his main political platform is a vow to take on official corruption—a dagger aimed directly at them.
That being the case, it’s significant that on January 9 a plane crash killed 11 top commanders in the Revolutionary Guard, including the commander of its ground forces. The Iranians have blamed the crash on bad weather and poor material condition of the aircraft as a result of U.S. sanctions. But the aircraft was a French Falcon business jet, and such a VIP aircraft would be expected to have the best of maintenance.
Also, one of President Ahmadinejad’s top security guards in the Revolutionary Guard unit responsible for the personal security of senior Iranian officials was killed on December 14 in an ambush of the presidential motorcade in Sistan and Balochistan province.
I’m not implying we are responsible, mainly because I’m highly skeptical of our competence in this area. But it’s quite possible that there is brewing conflict within the Iranian religious/political establishment.