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Indyref 2

steeplejack

Reluctant Hardliner
Lots of bien pensants on twitter saying this won't stand, can't go on for ever, etc etc.

I don't see how. Little will move this year and they're already ruling out any change even if SNP clean up (as seems quite likely) in Holyrood elections next year.

New tactics are needed. Marching from A to B and the quaint thing that used to be called democracy isn't really cutting it I'm afraid. The Tories hold all th cards and they really don't care about this stuff. Lots of sages saying that Jack, Jonson are greating recruiting sargeants for independence. What however is the point of an independence army forbidden from taking any action to make any progress towards it's goals?

High time the SNP realised that they are not dealing with Cameron anymore, but a ruthless gang of criminals and sociopaths who stopped at nothing to get to where they are and will contemplate everything to stay there.
 

steeplejack

Reluctant Hardliner
Sadly I suspect the rhetoric emerging from the SNP leadership about "Plan B" has little substance. I really hope time and money isn't wasted on a futile legal challenge which seems 99.9% certain to circle the plughole of failure.

I like Angus Breandan MacNeil's plan for the 48 SNPers to call by elections and run in a one-issue grant-a-referendum by-elections. If the majority of those are won and a referendum still not granted (dur...) then the next stage will be abstentionism.

The SNP leadership now has to face up to the choice of such abstentionism or sullen acquiesence, or a plan C which no one can yet foresee. Their answer to that choice will set the frame for Scottish politics in the next few years. There are few / no good options. Personally, and with the toxic Salmond trial looming, I am not sure the SNP leadership have the shoes for the big puddle of shit they find themselves in.

The other question of course is whether the pro-Yes grassroots, well beyond the SNP, are willing to do anything beyond marching from A to B and dance in the rain. The need for an answer to this will come sooner than will be comfortable for many.
 

Azrael

circling Airstrip One
Sadly I suspect the rhetoric emerging from the SNP leadership about "Plan B" has little substance. I really hope time and money isn't wasted on a futile legal challenge which seems 99.9% certain to circle the plughole of failure.

I like Angus Breandan MacNeil's plan for the 48 SNPers to call by elections and run in a one-issue grant-a-referendum by-elections. If the majority of those are won and a referendum still not granted (dur...) then the next stage will be abstentionism.

The SNP leadership now has to face up to the choice of such abstentionism or sullen acquiesence, or a plan C which no one can yet foresee. Their answer to that choice will set the frame for Scottish politics in the next few years. There are few / no good options. Personally, and with the toxic Salmond trial looming, I am not sure the SNP leadership have the shoes for the big puddle of shit they find themselves in.

The other question of course is whether the pro-Yes grassroots, well beyond the SNP, are willing to do anything beyond marching from A to B and dance in the rain. The need for an answer to this will come sooner than will be comfortable for many.
Either run 48 by-elections and use a majority of seats as a mandate to end the union (the old threshold), or if a majority of the popular vote's now considered essential, use a Holyrood election as a proxy referendum.

Stacking up toothless "mandates" for an Indyref2 that never comes will see the SNP rapidly replaced with another pro-indy party, especially in the semi-proportional Holyrood system.
 

steeplejack

Reluctant Hardliner
Stacking up toothless "mandates" for an Indyref2 that never comes will see the SNP rapidly replaced with another pro-indy party, especially in the semi-proportional Holyrood system.
Nah, can't see that happening. Flawed as they are, the SNP are the only game in town.

They do need to come up with something and in short order. A legal challenge or the like will look like flannel and prevarication as everyone knows they might as well burn the money in a dumpster fire as give it to an Edinburgh advocate to take on the doomed case.

Something new and radical that we haven't heard before is needed.
 

Poi E

Well-Known Member
The British Army has never been weaker, compromised of malnourished and mentally ill recruits. The police forces are the same. London is in the grip of late stage imperial decline as a country riddled with the stench of exploitation, hypocrisy and a hideous history starts to dig its own grave.

Just lower the butcher's apron while Johnson deals with the arse falling out of his trade deals. That Indian elephant in the room looks mighty pissed off. Like Hindu nationalists been stirring it.
 
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Celyn

Well-Known Member
The British Army has never been weaker, compromised of malnourished and mentally ill recruits. The police forces are the same. London is in the grip of late stage imperial decline as a country riddled with the stench of exploitation, hypocrisy and a hideous history starts to dig its own grave.

Just lower the butcher's apron while Johnson deals with the arse falling out of his trade deals. That Indian elephant in the room looks mighty pissed off. Like Hindu nationalists been stirring it.
Look, nice and clever and wise person though you might be, Poi E, I cannot quite agree with this analysis. For a start, nothing is about the British Army, we hope.

As for the army being "compromised of malnourished and mentally ill recruits ", I don't think that is true. I certainly would hope not.
 

Celyn

Well-Known Member
The British Army has never been weaker, compromised of malnourished and mentally ill recruits. The police forces are the same. London is in the grip of late stage imperial decline as a country riddled with the stench of exploitation, hypocrisy and a hideous history starts to dig its own grave.

Just lower the butcher's apron while Johnson deals with the arse falling out of his trade deals. That Indian elephant in the room looks mighty pissed off. Like Hindu nationalists been stirring it.
But I can now try again, but this time more easily quoting the complete post.

I think I wonder a bit about what you mean. Really. What do you have in mind here? Genuine question.

Do you mean that all of us in favour of Scottish independence ought to take up arms? I do hope not. I really do.

Also, is it not possibly a bit untruthful to state that the British Army is full of "malnourished and mentally ill" recruits?
 

Celyn

Well-Known Member
It'll be interesting to see what Sturgeon and the SNP propose to do now. They need more than "oh yes we will".
Needs a few more from whatever "side" to decide "oh, best to go independent". See what way the sand is running, get on board. :)

Some will, Labour and Tory. Remember, they might turn to preferring one for their own happiness, because after independence, the same political parties and likely more will be existing, campaigning, lots of them.
 

Azrael

circling Airstrip One
Nah, can't see that happening. Flawed as they are, the SNP are the only game in town.

They do need to come up with something and in short order. A legal challenge or the like will look like flannel and prevarication as everyone knows they might as well burn the money in a dumpster fire as give it to an Edinburgh advocate to take on the doomed case.

Something new and radical that we haven't heard before is needed.
Have Wee Ginger Dug pen the reply? ;)

Don't expect anything to happen until Bute House outlines their response. Nor do I expect Patrick Harvie and pals to hoist the banner, let alone SLab to have a decades-overdue Damascene moment of clarity. If there's to be an alternative, it'd involve an open split between the SNP's fundamentalist and gradualist wings, with the SNP radicals linking up with groups in the wider Yes movement. So long as there's credible hope for the SNP as-is to offer a way forward, I don't expect to see any such schism.

Be a long few weeks!
 

Poi E

Well-Known Member
Look, nice and clever and wise person though you might be, Poi E, I cannot quite agree with this analysis. For a start, nothing is about the British Army, we hope.

As for the army being "compromised of malnourished and mentally ill recruits ", I don't think that is true. I certainly would hope not.
The BA is fucked. Two lost wars its last outing. Having such a tough time recruiting its taking in anyone. Racism rife. It's a micro-cosm of Britain.


Everything is about the power the British state can wield, soft or hard. But if I was to place bets this will be more a Slovenia and less of a Croatia.

Former colonies are well aware of the crises engulfing the homeland of the world's greatest project of theft, racial exploitation and stratification. Rhodes Must Fall was the start. Britain is loathed with a passion by a new breed of nationalists in India, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand etc.

Scotland should get the fuck out and start apologising.
 
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steeplejack

Reluctant Hardliner
Lots of borderline deranged chatter on Lisa Nandy on twitter on the last couple of days. No doubt her initial comments on Catalonia in the Andrew Neill interview were poor, ill-judged and widely open to misinterpretation (her having to issue a clarifying blog shows the damage done).

The broader issue is that both her and Phillips' clumsy intervention on the issue of a second Scottish referendum show yet again the utter blindspot the English left have on issues north of the border. Both appear to have equated Scottish nationalism with reactionary-populist nationalisms characterising European alt-right governments and English exceptionalist nationalism. It's a very basic error leaving them in the position of clapping like seals in response to Johnson's hardline stance. These optics, beginning in Labour's craven involvement in Bitter Together in 2014, are exactly the ones leading to the party's seemingly terminal electoral tailspin.

It also shows the deep problems Labour have in rebuilding any kind of workable profile in Scotland. The shooting down of Richard Leonard's attempt to open up a debate on the party's constitutional position was the latest in a long series of dying sonar characterising the beached whale of Scottish Labour. It's a new low for Leonard's consummately disastrous leadership, but then again you can sympathise a little with him. Him trying to lead Labour back to power with what's left of the party is akin to the manger of Stenhousemuir trying to win a two-legged European tie against Barcelona.

If you want to bash the Jocks and keep them in their box then why vote Nandy or Phillips when you can vote for Boris Johnson? If you want soft Kinnock-style social democracy and "sensible" government then why vote Scottish Labour when you can get the same from the SNP? Labour simply haven't woken up to the fact that the Scotland they used to take for granted no longer exists. The current protracted, grotesque puppet show of their UK leadership campaign- electing the visionary leadership that will lose again in the next Westminster election- merely confirms their utter irrelevance.

Labour backing a second referendum and supporting in principle the right for Scots to determine their own future is the only step they can take away from a trajectory leading them to oblivion. The few intelligent voices in their grassroots activist base have grasped this. It seems a long time before a tribalist, knee-jerk and cretinous leadership will come around to this point of view- and by then it will be far too late.
 

Azrael

circling Airstrip One
Yup. As you say, SLab's simply become redundant, straddling a widening divide until it tumbles down the chasm to its own oblivion. The only hope it has is to ditch the more-yoon-than-thou performance and take (at least) a neutral position on the constitution, combined with giving substance to the "sovereign will" it supposedly supports.

The SNP would be vulnerable to a social democratic challenger they couldn't neutralise with the Westminster card. SLab shows no sign whatsoever of being it.
 
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