Indyref 2

Discussion in 'Scotland/Alba' started by weepiper, Mar 13, 2017.

  1. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    you're wrong about the referendum argument. It has been that Brexit has made a material difference and therefore another referendum is needed.

    It has not been stated by Sturgeon or the SNP that the aim of the referendum would be to get back into the EU. Their statements have been very careful on this matter, something the UK media has missed.
     
  2. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    Think the question now is how to get out of the UK.
     
  3. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    Sure. But that seems to me a solvable problem. How to join the EU post-brexit seems to me like a potentially unsolvable problem.
     
  4. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    As an independent country? Why?

    Anyway, for me, EFTA would be the sensible option.
     
  5. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    I can see a few potential stumbling blocks, ranging from operating with sterling to the formulation of defence policy. But this would be the main one:

    David Davis has been very clear that he wants to maintain the common travel area with Ireland. But when pressed, he has no answers as to how to do this if the UK withdraws from the common market. Same problem would exist with an EU Scotland, but with bells on. How do you impose tariffs and restrictions on movement without border controls?
     
  6. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    What do you mean "operating with sterling" as a stumbling block to joining the EU? Who is operating with sterling? Why does that cause a stumbling block for Scotland joining the EU?

    That's not a problem for joining the EU, that's a problem for an EU country with a land border on an non EU country (and vice versa).

    But as I've already said, neither Sturgeon nor the SNP has said this referendum is about joining the EU. It's about independence. We don't yet know what the SNP's stance will be on EU membership.

    The situation is not the same as 2014. Indeed, that's why a referendum is needed.

    And one of the things that's different is that I'm not going to be making someone else's arguments for them. I think Scotland should join EFTA.

    Looking at Norway, it has a land border with two EU countries. It also has a land border with a non EU country. The two EU countries it has a border with are, like it, Schengen countries. I'd support Scotland being in Schengen and outside the EU.

    What the rUK does is a different matter. They'd then potentially have two land borders to deal with (though for how long is another question, and relies on an eventual "border poll" about Northern Ireland, and rests on population demographics there). This is an issue that didn't exist in 2014 and will, you are right, need to be resolved.

    I think an independence referendum needs to be before the UK has exited but once the deal is known. The deal will need contingent plans for Scotland's referendum result. The debate should be interesting.
     
  7. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    It wouldn't just be the rUK with the land border to deal with. It would be Scotland's problem too. The comparison with Norway only really serves to highlight what the problem is if the rUK does not go for a Norway-style relationship with the EU. Scotland in Schengen but outside the EU would cause similar problems. Not only might relations with the rUK dictate non-EU membership, it might also dictate non-Schengen and a host of other things.

    I accept that this is not your argument, but it comes back to the thing it always came back to for me in the first referendum - how independent from England would an independent Scotland be? If anything brexit just makes that question even more difficult.
     
  8. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    Didn't say it would.

    I don't agree.

    I think one of the problems last time was that the SNP tried to sell a "no change" change package. I hope and trust they will rethink that. I think Brexit has made that selling a proper change package easier.
     
  9. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    On this point I think we will continue to disagree. Any kind of hard brexit would leave Scotland with the choice between open borders with England and open borders with the EU. If that happens, I think it will be a hard sell.
     
  10. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    Well, you first said this border issue was a barrier to joining the EU. I don't think it is.

    It is an issue that needs to be resolved. I think it can be.

    And I think that the very existence of Brexit means there's no need to go softly on the things the SNP went softly on last time. Especially currency.
     
  11. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    I'm still saying that, if there is any kind of 'hard' brexit.
     
  12. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    A barrier to Scotland joining the EU? How?
     
  13. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    Because it would require a customs border between Scotland and England.
     
  14. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    No it wouldn't. But even if it did, how is that a barrier to joining?
     
  15. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

  16. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    That's a crucial 'albeit', though.

    I can offer a clear reason: If Scotland and rUK do not have a similar Common Travel Area.
     
  17. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    Why wouldn't they?
     
  18. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    They wouldn't if, for instance, Scotland were part of an EU that still had free movement of people, and England (I'm just going to say 'England', it's easier) were not.

    This would exert political pressure both ways of course - an independent Scotland in the EU (or EFTA for that matter) might exert a restraint on a hard-brexiting England. England's bigger than Scotland, though.
     
  19. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    Well, that'd be a matter for the rUK if they didn't want a common travel area. But if they didn't perhaps a hard border would be a good idea until they regained their senses anyway.

    I'm not convinced a border with an independent Scotland would be the only pressure on rUK's immigration and customs arrangements anyway. I don't think they'll get what they want.
     
  20. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    Well yes, to both these points. I'm not convinced the UK will leave the common market even. Long way to go.

    But I can see these issues playing hard in a referendum. There is bound to be dismal scaremongering from the unionist side, as there was last time. In this case, the prospect of passport controls/border checks may loom large, and such threats would have more foundation than they had pre-brexit.
     
  21. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    IMG_1427.jpg

    I think Unionist scaremongering will play less well from people who can't even get 4 days into the Section 50 period without grandees threatening a naval war with Spain, and Downing Street not knowing how to shut them down.
     
  22. littlebabyjesus

    littlebabyjesus one of Maxwell's demons

    We'll all be applying to join a greater Scotland. Maybe, given that smart borders don't have to be physical, that could be the future for nations. They could have territories scattered all over the place.
     
    danny la rouge likes this.
  23. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    IMG_1432.jpg

    It looks like Labour wants to save Scotland the trouble of an independence referendum. It'd certainly be all-round easier this way, and that way Westminster can work out exactly what it is it wants from a border.
     
  24. DexterTCN

    DexterTCN Well-Known Member

  25. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    IMG_1439.jpg

    This is the kind of moron who is a liability to the pro-independence movement. And the account is followed by thousands, so it's easy to see why some people worry about the undercurrents. To be frank, it worries me too.
     
  26. JTG

    JTG Angry about not being able to be an astronaut.

    Just had a look at that account. Sounds like a complete loon
     
    danny la rouge likes this.
  27. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    Probably being thick/tired but I don't get the oven door thing?
     
  28. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

    A Holocaust reference. Why is another question.
     
  29. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge arbiter of taste and expert in all things right

  30. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    Christ. I did wonder for a moment if it could be that but then I dismissed the idea "nobody could be that stupid/that much of a wanker" I said to myself.

    Ta for the second post. Jesus there's some loons about.
     
    danny la rouge likes this.

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