roryer said:
Well you start by pointing out that the argument has gone off topic then produce a series of documents that prove nothing other than using traffic calming leads to increasing and decreasing speeds rather than driving at a constant speed and is going to increase tail-pipe emissions. This we know!
I'm glad we have that out of the way.
You seem to have ignored the part of my post where I mentioned TRL findings that driving at a constant 20 mph is going to increase emissions by up to 40% compared to a constant 30 mph.
Moreover, speed limiters are rather dumb devices. As the name suggests, the place a maximum on the speed of a vehicle. If, for the purposes of your argument, that's set a 55 mph, then they're not really going to have any effect at 30, 20 or 15 mph, are they?
In fact all urban driving have very high per km emissions, and the highest emissions are in the first two miles while the engine is not warm, so tackling these trips and converting to cycling will have the greatest impact. These short journeys represent over 50% of all car trips.
50% of all journeys are short journeys? Presumably the vast majority in urban areas subject to a 30 mph limit?
[does some maths]
Reduce from 30 mph to a 20 mph limit. Let's be generous and assume no additional traffic calming to enforce this and use the lower level of increase.
With no change in behaviour, a 40% increase in emissions of 50% of journeys = 20% increase in overall emissions.
Using TfL data, to get back to where you started, for urban journeys, you'll have to induce a modal transfer of
- 29% shift of journeys to zero emissions modes of transport (everyone gets on their bicycles or walks) or doesn't travel at all.
or
- 40% to light rail, such as the London Underground (very efficient at 55g CO2/passenger km). Planning and implementation of schemes like these is measured in decades. BTW. I was talking to LT's architects dept about Crossrail when I did my degree dissertation on public transport design in 1988. We might just have it in place by the time the Olympics roll into London in 2012.
or
- 70% of journeys to bus, which emits 17% less CO2 than the average car (this allowing for bus CO2 emissions to remain the same as passenger loadings rise, even though their actual efficiency drops because of the lower speed limits)
OK, so these are some very rough figures, but for every 1% increase in emissions as a result of the measures, you'd have to persuade 0.75% of journeys to move to zero-emissions transport, 1% to move to light rail, or nearly 2% to bus, just to keep things where they were when you started with a zero reduction in CO2.
Does this seem likely or even feasible?