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How is it looking in your marginal constituency?

Discussion in 'UK politics, current affairs and news' started by bi0boy, Apr 21, 2017 at 3:22 PM.

  1. bi0boy

    bi0boy Power User

    With the national vote looking one-sided atm, how is the campaign going if you're in a marginal?
    Any interesting two-way contests taking place? How does Brexit seem to affecting things?

    I'm in a Lab/Lib marginal that voted 75% for remain. Both sides claiming to be all about remaining so not sure how much traction that will have. I see the Lib challenger retaking it as I don't see the middle class Lab vote holding up with Milliband gone, and Corbyn wouldn't have recruited any voters here that weren't already voting Labour.
     
  2. farmerbarleymow

    farmerbarleymow suspicious sweetcorn

    Unfortunately I don't live in a marginal (21k labour majority), so barring some major upset I imagine the incumbent will be reelected. 60% remain vote here, but at a guess I think turnout may be low as there is also the mayoral election on 4 May so people might have voting fatigue.
     
  3. belboid

    belboid TUC Off Your Knees

    My seat is ultra safe Labour. Next door should be, but it's also number one or two target for the Greens. No doubt we are going to be told to go and waste our time campaigning there, instead of Derby, or Leeds, or any one of the nearby marginal that could actually become a Labour gain. Fuckers
     
  4. SpookyFrank

    SpookyFrank Somewhere under the raincloud

    Safe Labour seat here, so safe that I think the sitting MP is just a Marks and Spencers mannequin with a red tie on it.
     
  5. Teaboy

    Teaboy Tryhard wannabe

    I'm in Twickenham which used to be a pretty safe seat for the lib dems, Vince Cable's seat. It was nicked by the tories at the last election but despite being the darling of the tory party I don't think Tania Mathias has made much impact locally. Her voting to bomb in Syria when she is a qualified doctor who has previously volunteered in war zones went down like a shit sandwich.

    Also with her failing to stop Heathrow expansion and the tories going hard Brexit I would say she is on borrowed time. If Goldsmith couldn't hold his seat (next door constituency) on a much greater majority than she is pretty stuffed.

    Needless to say I have no dog in this race as any joy of seeing a war mongering tory kicked out will be firmly tempered by Vince Cable's smug grin as he heads back to Westminster.
     
    moochedit and bi0boy like this.
  6. Orang Utan

    Orang Utan Sub-Sub-Librarian

    How much of a majority constitutes a marginal?
    My constituency is Lib Dem with a majority of 2000.
    All three major parties have held it in the past 20 years.
     
  7. bi0boy

    bi0boy Power User

    Basically anywhere where you get lots of leaflets and door knocks.
     
    Orang Utan likes this.
  8. Pickman's model

    Pickman's model Every man and every woman is a star

    no, they're not doing that good a job
     
  9. Orang Utan

    Orang Utan Sub-Sub-Librarian

    right, nowt round here, but I live in a block of flats and they can't get in to knock. No leaflets yet either.
     
  10. rubbershoes

    rubbershoes not the only raver in the village

    Tory constituency since 1923 :mad:

    Plenty of rich farmers and pensioners in Devon
     
  11. skyscraper101

    skyscraper101 0891 50 50 50

    I'm moving in 10 days to the swing seat of Richmond Park from my current Tory safe seat area. They only just voted Goldsmith out so I'm expecting it'll be Lib Dem again.

    Le yawn.
     
  12. chilango

    chilango rdgXhc

    Reading East.

    Not marginal really, Labour 97-01. Tory other than that.

    It is the sort of seat Labour need to win though. Was briefly talked of as target seat last election, but never came close.

    Lib Dems were 2nd Party for a bit but have (touch wood) vanished.

    Greens kept their deposit here, and could cash in on the student/liberal vote in the absence of anything else.

    Dull though. Will be an easy hold for the Tories.
     
  13. Mine should be quite interesting (Brighton, Kemptown)
    kirby.jpg
    Kirby is widely regarded as being useless, even by his own party. Labour could easily take it especially if some Greens deflect.

    Hove could be one to watch too -
    Hove.jpg
    Kyle with not the biggest majority and he's been quite vocally anti-Corbyn which hasn't gone done well with Brighton's Momentum supporters.

    Lucas should be safe in Pavillion.
     
  14. Old Spark

    Old Spark Well-Known Member

  15. Old Spark

    Old Spark Well-Known Member

    Kemptown has Tory majority of 690 over Labour with sizeable ukip and green vote in 2015.Prime territory for progressive alliance but wont happen despite Caroline Lucas best efforts.

    Clearly labour should not nominate against Lucas in exchange for them not standing in Kemptown.

    Kirby has just been sacked as Minister for brexit in the City as there were complaints he wasnt up to it.

    He did however persuade Osborne to fund the complete rebuilding of Brighton hospital .

    Kyle may win again as he is strong on anti Brexit and this wont help the tory in prime Remain territory.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017 at 5:10 PM
    Indeliblelink likes this.
  16. danny la rouge

    danny la rouge This is definitely the darkest timeline

  17. Wilf

    Wilf 8% Beach Ready

    I've never lived anywhere other than under a labour mp in 56 years. Could be different this time. It's Blenkinsop's seat, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. A few Middlesbrough wards (some posh bits, some poor) and then a range of villages in Cleveland going out to the coast. It's been Labour since coming into being in 97 with Blenkinsop getting 2000+ majorities more recently - Ashok Kumar getting bigger majorities in another version of the boundaries 19997-2005. Have a feeling Labour's standing in the polls and Blenkinsop's carping about Corbyn will hand it to the tories. Blenkinsop himself isn't standing, giving the party a parting gift of saying it was 'because of corbyn'. :rolleyes:
     
  18. farmerbarleymow

    farmerbarleymow suspicious sweetcorn

    Mine is a 'Labour Ultra Safe Seat' - unsurprisingly.
     
  19. 8115

    8115 sitting down is bad for you

    Very close Lib/ Lab here. I think the remain vote will probably swing it for Libs but the sitting Labour MP is very good and has put his face around in all the right places so might have a chance.
     
  20. stethoscope

    stethoscope Well-Known Member

    Hello @8115 - not seen you about these parts for a while, good to see you :)
     
    8115 likes this.
  21. Vintage Paw

    Vintage Paw dead stare and computer glare

    I don't know what ukip are doing round here (Stoke Central) this time (probably going to be the local chair, who was most put out when Nuttall stood), but there were only two thousand some votes in it in Feb. It's not going to have the Nuttalls star factor, though, plus some severe election fatigue. Depends who's motivated enough to come out on the day. I don't know how the turnout will compare to Feb. 'Local' round here is all 4 constituencies - Stokes North, Central and South, and Newcastle. I expect resources will be funnelled wherever each party expects they've got the most chance, and will write off the ones they don't. North will stay Labour, in part thanks to the old MP who quite a lot of people liked. It'd be quite the fucker for a lot of people if Lab loses Central just a couple of months after having won it.
     
  22. marty21

    marty21 One on one? You're crazy.

    Trades button on the entryphone til midday ?
     
  23. Riklet

    Riklet procrastinación

    Tory seat from 2015 but been Lib Dem for years.

    Voted remain during the referendum so I reckon Libs may win it back. Only 4000 votes in it. ....Just so they can then jump back into bed with the fucking Tories!!!

    Labour and Greens both pretty small, will probably vote for whichever local candidate seems less shit and neoliberal.
     
  24. Orang Utan

    Orang Utan Sub-Sub-Librarian

    Don't think so. Only once had a knock from a chugger and someone else let them in.
     
  25. DotCommunist

    DotCommunist my world is fire and blood

    you'd have to get the tory incumbent out with a crowbar here. By which I mean you would have to beat him to death with a crowbar. You'd be justified in doing so but probably go to jail
     
    gawkrodger and Sue like this.
  26. Plumdaff

    Plumdaff joy in people

    Apparently my seat is "semi marginal", 6,000 majority in 2015. I think it was historically a Lab/Con marginal that has over time become a safer Labour seat, in 2015 looks like Labour lost a fair few votes to Plaid but Tories lost more to UKIP, and Lib Dems had a -12% swing. Although this was a 60% Remain city, I can't see a return of Lib Dem votes, think the threat the the incumbent could be that's there's a swing to Plaid allowing the Tories in. Think (hope) it's unlikely though.
     
  27. Nylock

    Nylock I hate 'these days'...

    23k tory majority here.

    fuck
     
  28. 8115

    8115 sitting down is bad for you

    Hey :) yeah I decided to spend more time with my real life. Need my election news and views though. What's with all the tory posters though?
     
  29. JimW

    JimW 支那暗杀团

    Not as marginal as we used to be and Stroud CLP not picked their candidate yet AFAIK, some talk they might get Dave Drew back in for one last hurrah.
     
  30. JasonFelcham

    JasonFelcham Banned Banned

    oh death where is thy sweet release
     

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