How does this thing end?

[Bahnhof Strasse]

As has been said, might as well book flights if youre dead set on Xmas travel. Why not, something to look forward to. But gotta face the fact that even if the UK is lots better in December, lots of the world is going to be absolutely fucked still. And European countries may not be allowing 'needless' holiday travel. And travel insurance won't cover any Corona stuff from now on I guess.

Was looking at six days in New York, Virgin has a very special deal in business class, incredibly special in fact. But it is non-refundable and if we can’t go then I am not sure when we would be able to. But, meh, just feeling a bit sorry for myself right now as it is dawning that summer holiday won’t be happening and that could well have been the last time BB1 wants to go away with us. But as Frau Bahn has just pointed out, she’s not gonna get in to backpacking, far too used to flying at the front and five star hotels, having a travel agent dad won’t help her out when she’s on her own...

 

[Saul Goodman]

We're all going to die... eventually.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

We just have to hunker down and keep ourselves safe for however long it lasts. It might force companies to properly embrace remote working which would be a good result for those type of roles - they'd no longer be able to say they couldn't cope because they're just going to have to for the next few months.

 

[maomao]

I have a colleague who is determined to go to Thailand on her honeymoon in September. I wouldn't be surprised if she had to cancel the wedding in the first place.

 

[Badgers]

I wouldn't book anything for this year that isn't fully refundable.

COVID-20?

 

[maomao]

Eighteen months to two years for normality I reckon. And that will be with the economy in a worse position than the 1930s. They'll have to change the name of the great depression to the 'quite bad depression'.

 

[savoloysam]

Peaks and troughs as you've described, with history telling that deaths would have been far lower if people had been willing to isolate earlier, or the Government had mandated it, and indeed if we'd all been willing to tolerate a lengthy period of lockdown

I don't want to spread doom but I read that one of the worse things about the "Spanish" Flu epidemic (They are pretty sure it didn't orginate in Spain BTW) was that it mutated, twice! By the time the second and third waves came alot of the nurses and doctors that would normally be there to treat patients were lost in the first or second wave. This is a good example of why this thing needs to be taken seriously.

 

[Big Bertha]

Badly

 

[tony.c]

I don't want to spread doom but I read that one of the worse things about the "Spanish" Flu epidemic (They are pretty sure it didn't orginate in Spain BTW) was that it mutated, twice! By the time the second and third waves came alot of the nurses and doctors that would normally be there to treat patients were lost in the first or second wave. This is a good example of why this thing needs to be taken seriously.

I just watched 'The Flu That Killed 50 Million' which was on BBC last Tuesday. The 1918 'Spanish Flu' probably originated in America. The first person diagnosed, Patient Zero, was an Army cook in a Kansas Army training depot. It was carried by infected soldiers from there on troop ships taking soldiers to the battlefields of WW1, and spread from there by soldiers returning to their home countries.

The doctor talking about it said it ended eventually because it was too virulent. No point in killing your host if you want to multiply, so it eventually mutated to a milder version.
So that's how Covid-19 might end, if a vaccine hasn't been developed first.

 

[Epona]

I just watched 'The Flu That Killed 50 Million' which was on BBC last Tuesday. The 1918 'Spanish Flu' probably originated in America. The first person diagnosed, Patient Zero, was an Army cook in a Kansas Army training depot. It was carried by infected soldiers from there on troop ships taking soldiers to the battlefields of WW1, and spread from there by soldiers returning to their home countries.

The doctor talking about it said it ended eventually because it was too virulent. No point in killing your host if you want to multiply, so it eventually mutated to a milder version.
So that's how Corvid-19 might end, if a vaccine hasn't been developed first.

It is often the way - that milder strains become more prevalent simply because people are able to wander around and spread it, and the more severe strain renders people bedridden and kills the host - if contracting a milder strain confers immunity against the more severe strain then great, however that is an unknown at this point with COVID-19

 

[elbows]

The medias narratives about mutations etc in flu is sometimes a bit too much of an oversimplification. This article isnt bad for getting into more of the nitty gritty with the 1918 pandemic. Its still similar to what people have said in this thread, but sometimes the extra detail matters.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(18)30272-8/fulltext

Certainly other coronaviruses are with us seasonally and make up some proportion of the causes of the 'common cold' (maybe 25%-35% of colds). I think we first discovered a coronavirus in the 1960s and I'm not sure we know anything about their prior history in humans - some estimates can probably be gathered by studying the genomes, but I dont know if any work has been done to try to postulate whether they first appeared as pandemics which were bad enough for humans to notice and make reference to in their writings.

 

[Serge Forward]

I'm hoping it ends up with Johnson and pals meeting the same fate as Mussolini.

 

[A380]

Not with a bang but with a whimper.

It ends with a depression like the 30s. But perhaps with work and wages being more evenly shared . 4 day weeks for all, with wages to match. I suspect it may well be the nail I. The coffin for nei-liberalism. But no idea what will take its place. The environments a winner though. Might have brought as a few more years.

 

[elbows]

I'm hoping it ends up with Johnson and pals meeting the same fate as Mussolini.

Boris's Brepidemic - bringing new meaning to the phrase 'booster shot'.

 

[discokermit]

I'm hoping it ends up with Johnson and pals meeting the same fate as Mussolini.

or his own great grandfather, which was very similar, Ali Kemal - Wikipedia

 

[Epona]

The medias narratives about mutations etc in flu is sometimes a bit too much of an oversimplification. This article isnt bad for getting into more of the nitty gritty with the 1918 pandemic. Its still similar to what people have said in this thread, but sometimes the extra detail matters.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(18)30272-8/fulltext

Certainly other coronaviruses are with us seasonally and make up some proportion of the causes of the 'common cold' (maybe 25%-35% of colds). I think we first discovered a coronavirus in the 1960s and I'm not sure we know anything about their prior history in humans - some estimates can probably be gathered by studying the genomes, but I dont know if any work has been done to try to postulate whether they first appeared as pandemics which were bad enough for humans to notice and make reference to in their writings.

Aye well paleoepidemiology is a field of study and there is a lot of academic interest (both from historical/social and medical/epidemiological perspectives) - what is missing a lot of the time is genetic or even any organic material so tends to involve a lot of conjecture based on historical descriptions - it is a fascinating subject IMO. Probably doesn't help us a great deal right now though.

Most common viruses we have seem to originate from domestication of or prolonged close contact with animals- measles (possibly bovine in origin) can still be deadly after all this time in the human population, flu (originating from multiple species, I've had swine flu myself) can be deadly in huge numbers globally (although lets be clear it takes a lot for viruses to pass between species and then become transmissible, it's not like it happens all the time thank fuck) - but we have some vaccination protocols for some of them that can save lives - not just the lives of the people vaccinated, but the population as a whole - a disease cannot spread readily if most of the population has been vaccinated - so the same arguments about staying indoors to protect the vulnerable now are the same arguments for giving the MMR jab to kids, it is not about you, it protects society as a whole.

A vaccine is really what we lack for coronavirus right now, and it's not certain we will end up with a very effective vaccine as many coronaviruses (including ones that cause some cases of the common cold in humans as well as diseases in equines, bovines, felines, and various avian species) do not generate a strong immune response in the host - and may not result in any lengthy period of immunity if at all. So I am not sure I want to pin my hopes on a vaccine and think as soon as we have that all will be ok - it is more complex than that.

(Have worked in epidemiology in animal health including mapping, tracing, and quarantine. It can be a bit more complicated with humans than with livestock although trust me there is always some fuckwit that insists on taking their pet pot-bellied pig for a walk during a swine fever outbreak)

 

[DaveCinzano]

This will end in tears, mark my words

It's already getting noticeably tense on Gogglebox

 

[tim]

I don't want to spread doom but I read that one of the worse things about the "Spanish" Flu epidemic (They are pretty sure it didn't orginate in Spain BTW) was that it mutated, twice! By the time the second and third waves came alot of the nurses and doctors that would normally be there to treat patients were lost in the first or second wave. This is a good example of why this thing needs to be taken seriously.

Possibly but we are in 2020 not 1918 which means we have a much healthier population and much more sophisticated infrastructure and treatments. We know what we are dealing with a century ago, they didn't.

 

[elbows]

The reason this virus needs to be taken seriously is the damage it already does in its current form. In that sense the mutation stuff is something of a red herring, although it would be unwise for me to push this point too far. But worry about the virus we already have, it is highly transmissable and can bring all healthcare systems to their knees.

Sophisticated infrastructure and treatments are advantages that are fragile, and that will be one of the problems in this pandemic. A lot of progress, that becomes taken for granted, can actually evaporate. Not the knowledge, that wont be lost, but the means by which to harness it in ways that make the big differences to survival. Not just survival of Covid-19, but all the other health service things that people rely on to live longer. Without the right equipment and the right drugs, the sophisticated modern approach can easily become impotent.

 

[Epona]

The reason this virus needs to be taken seriously is the damage it already does in its current form. In that sense the mutation stuff is something of a red herring, although it would be unwise for me to push this point too far. But worry about the virus we already have, it is highly transmissable and can bring all healthcare systems to their knees.

Sophisticated infrastructure and treatments are advantages that are fragile, and that will be one of the problems in this pandemic. A lot of progress, that becomes taken for granted, can actually evaporate. Not the knowledge, that wont be lost, but the means by which to harness it in ways that make the big differences to survival. Not just survival of Covid-19, but all the other health service things that people rely on to live longer. Without the right equipment and the right drugs, the sophisticated modern approach can easily become impotent.

Well there is talk already of there being at least 2 strains of COVID-19 (as reported by New Scientist, 5th March) and it is something that is being investigated so I don't think it's a red herring to discuss that. What that may mean in the long-term is yet to be seen.

 

[Miss-Shelf]

I'm hoping one of the outcomes of this is that international flights for holidays and work don't continue*

People are still going to need to get to family and some goods will need to be flown but aviation needs to be seriously curtailed

eta: * I mean for combating effects of the climate emergency not for the virus although virus suppression might ground flights into next year

 

[Epona]

I'm hoping one of the outcomes of this is that international flights for holidays and work don't continue

People are still going to need to get to family and some goods will need to be flown but aviation needs to be seriously curtailed

I'd like to see a greater acceptance for people working from home, and flexible working. It's been proven now that businesses are ok with that when it suits them keeping doing business during a crisis, so hopefully in future the ability for more workers to be able to do that if they wish will become the norm.

I asked Nate if he could request to work from home - bring a couple of barrels here and pour pints for me on a Friday night I don't think the nightclub he works for at the weekends (outside of a pandemic) will go for that unfortunately

 

[elbows]

Well there is talk already of there being at least 2 strains of COVID-19 (as reported by New Scientist, 5th March) and it is something that is being investigated so I don't think it's a red herring to discuss that. What that may mean in the long-term is yet to be seen.

I am not a fan of the '2 strains' crap that was widely reported but based on a paper that went down really quite badly with many who work in the field.

COVID-19 Frequently Asked Questions

last updated March 6, 2020 As a team, we’re fielding a lot of questions about COVID-19 and how individuals and families should be preparing…

nextstrain.org

Is one strain of the COVID-19 virus more severe?
There is not evidence that any strain of the COVID-19 virus, SARS-CoV-2, is more severe. A recent paper has claimed that SARS-CoV-2 has split into two strains, “L” and “S”, with the “L” strain causing a more severe version of COVID-19. This theory was used to try to explain the higher case fatality ratio that has been seen in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak as compared to other parts of China. Nextstrain team member, Richard Neher, PhD, summed up why this theory is inaccurate in this twitter thread. In short, this difference in case fatality rates is likely a statistical artifact due to the way that “genomes are sampled extremely heterogeneously in time and space. Rapidly growing local outbreaks get sampled intensively and result in overrepresentation of some variants.”

A more detailed discussion of why there is not evidence for this claim was written by posted on Virological by Oscar A. MacLean et al., at the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research.

I am interested in strains and genome stuff. Thats why I even heard anything about that paper being refuted at all. And nextstrain do some quite nice graphical tools for looking at the variations between samples that have had their sequences shared publicly.

 

[Epona]

I am not a fan of the '2 strains' crap that was widely reported but based on a paper that went down really quite badly with many who work in the field.

COVID-19 Frequently Asked Questions

last updated March 6, 2020 As a team, we’re fielding a lot of questions about COVID-19 and how individuals and families should be preparing…

nextstrain.org

I am interested in strains and genome stuff. Thats why I even heard anything about that paper being refuted at all. And nextstrain do some quite nice graphical tools for looking at the variations between samples that have had their sequences shared publicly.

Thanks for the link!

 

[tim]

I'm hoping one of the outcomes of this is that international flights for holidays and work don't continue*

People are still going to need to get to family and some goods will need to be flown but aviation needs to be seriously curtailed

eta: * I mean for combating effects of the climate emergency not for the virus although virus suppression might ground flights into next year

They willl continue, thank God! My current and I assume future jobs depend on people flying to the UK to study and I enjoy my holidays. Two weeks at Minehead every Summer doesn't appeal. That doesn't mean not developing and using sustainable aviation fuel.

 

[Marty1]

Was looking at six days in New York, Virgin has a very special deal in business class, incredibly special in fact. But it is non-refundable and if we can’t go then I am not sure when we would be able to. But, meh, just feeling a bit sorry for myself right now as it is dawning that summer holiday won’t be happening and that could well have been the last time BB1 wants to go away with us. But as Frau Bahn has just pointed out, she’s not gonna get in to backpacking, far too used to flying at the front and five star hotels, having a travel agent dad won’t help her out when she’s on her own...

The beginning of the end begins (possibly) in weeks according to Trump.

Trump wants to reopen US businesses in weeks 'not months' even as deaths rise – as it happened

Democrats voted to oppose motion on the coronavirus stimulus bill, while Dr Anthony Fauci and others warn against scaling back social distancing

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Thanks for the link!

No problem. I like going to the main nextstrain tool and looking around the tree. Its not even like I need to understand most of it, I just like looking at the complexity of the picture. In part because I am tuned to be mistrustful of overly simplified stories, and the whole 'it mutated into a worse strain' or variations on that theme are what people have been primed for, journalists are always ready to tell that sort of story. But so much of the reality is so much more mundane, and interesting in other, less dramatic ways, such as tracking the spread. I'm not saying that mutations in a direction that has new consequences for humanity are impossible, but I dont go looking for those stories, if they ever happen then the signs should loom rather large.

Plus I'm less interested in the context of the current pandemic because, unlike say H5N1 bird flu, this coronavirus is already rather good at transmitting between humans, so we arent waiting for a scary potential mutation that could make that happen later.

Which reminds me, when they go on about 2nd 1918 flu wave being more deadly, its often unclear to me whether everyone interprets that the same way. I think some people think that must mean the virus had mutated in a manner that made it more potentially deadly to every infected person. But the language used in some reports makes me think its more likely to be a question of transmissibility, the virus may only be perceived as deadlier in that wave because its acquired the ability to infect far more people.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

We’re all locked away, creeping out for food, work some times, the odd bit of exercise and so on. For how long? This thing isn’t just going to go away. A vaccine won’t be widely available for at least a year. So what happens now? Do we stay like this indefinitely? If the virus dips and we’re all allowed back in the pub, it will just rise again, so back to locked away and so on.

Where is the end to this?

It doesn't. This is the new normal.

I'm going to have to give up a lifelong nose-picking habit

Who's going to ever know though. Do as thou witl shall be the whole of the law.

That is the plan isn't it, to enforce periodic lockdowns then relax them on and off - the aim is not to prevent everyone from getting it, it's to prevent everyone from getting it at once and overwhelming the NHS. And longterm to build up some herd immunity as those least at risk catch it.

Chance would be a fine thing. For sure this virus will become part of the background soup. How we cope with that will be interesting.

Introduce Chinese style mandatory location and contact tracing and ruthlessly shut down local outbreaks allowing some movement.

Conspiracy lunacists say that was the intention all along. If this/other similar viruses are to be the new terrorism then such measures may become more sensible. Nothing we knew for sure before will be so certain after this. Stuff we hated before might be more serviceable now. Let's hope and pray we can bend this shit to our needs more kindly.

That does seem to be the case. The endgame is a vaccine, its just how its managed until that occurs, if it occurs and how many die.

Any vaccine that works will only have limited impact. Some will refuse (for all sorts of reasons) some will be shut out (for all sorts of reasons) etc and so on. But more significantly, the next shit storm we face will be the impossibility of a bacterial infection without workable antibiotics.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

I'm hoping someone will identify a pharmaceutical intervention that at least takes the edge of in some cases.

Interstitial pneumonia is mechanical. By the time it gets to that point it's too late for pharmaceutical intervention

 

[SheilaNaGig]

We're so fucked.