chegrimandi
associated with adultery
think Big Tone and crew have a vested interest in keeping the true figures hidden. Call me a cynic.
Hour Silence for the 40,000 dead in Iraq
- Thread starter chegrimandi
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butchersapron
Bring back hanging
no, TeeJay, the c+p posted earlier on the thread was utter toss.
The report was published in, and subsequently rigorously defended by, the Lancet, which as you know is a premier peer-reviewed scientific journal. Now, clearly the statistical methods employed were entirely apt and properly chosen from withi the canon available, otherwise it wouldn't have got throguh the review process, and certainly wouldn't have been defended.
Do you know anything about sampling methods, or about predictions nmade on sample sizes? Can you point me to articles (preferably by people who know what they are talking about) that scientifically take this study apart and show the confidence boundaries that limit the size of the prediction?
The report was published in, and subsequently rigorously defended by, the Lancet, which as you know is a premier peer-reviewed scientific journal. Now, clearly the statistical methods employed were entirely apt and properly chosen from withi the canon available, otherwise it wouldn't have got throguh the review process, and certainly wouldn't have been defended.
Do you know anything about sampling methods, or about predictions nmade on sample sizes? Can you point me to articles (preferably by people who know what they are talking about) that scientifically take this study apart and show the confidence boundaries that limit the size of the prediction?
chegrimandi
associated with adultery
jæd said:
just looking here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/remembrance/
looks quite World War-centric to me.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
chegrimandi said:
Not really, but then, I've never really liked Japanese cars that much.
OK - the Lancet figures give roughly 60% of their figure as being due to violence and 40% due to increases in accidents, disease, infant mortality etc.
The Lancet figure implies that 60,000 people have been killed by violence, including insurgents, while the aggregated press reports (eg Iraq Body Count) give a figure of c. 15,000 for the same period, counting only civilians. Both of these figures include people killed by insurgents as well as the US/UK and Iraqi government military forces.
I am willing to accept that the Iraq Body Count is probably undercounting but any way you look at the figures the claim that US/UK forces killed 100,000 isn't supported by the Lancet figures, even if you think they are reliable and meaningful.
The Lancet figure implies that 60,000 people have been killed by violence, including insurgents, while the aggregated press reports (eg Iraq Body Count) give a figure of c. 15,000 for the same period, counting only civilians. Both of these figures include people killed by insurgents as well as the US/UK and Iraqi government military forces.
I am willing to accept that the Iraq Body Count is probably undercounting but any way you look at the figures the claim that US/UK forces killed 100,000 isn't supported by the Lancet figures, even if you think they are reliable and meaningful.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The actual report is here and incudes amongst it's findings "Making conservative assumptions,we think that about 100 000 excess deaths,or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths"
contra your earlier definitive claim about what the report actually contained - an odd thing to be doing without actually seeing it.
contra your earlier definitive claim about what the report actually contained - an odd thing to be doing without actually seeing it.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Who made that claim then teejay - i haven't seen anyone on this thread do that.TeeJay said:
chegrimandi
associated with adultery
I think its interesting that people get so grief stricken over the london bombings yet n'er a whisper relatively speaking from the mainstream about those murdered and maimed in Iraq .
what does that say about us?
its all ok as long as its not in our back yard. Imagine if a thousand people had been killed in london. What would we be doing now? Would we be going to war?
what does that say about us?
its all ok as long as its not in our back yard. Imagine if a thousand people had been killed in london. What would we be doing now? Would we be going to war?
I have only done statisics up to A level unfortunately.kropotkin said:
The fact that it is a prediction with confidence limits isn't the same as making a claim of fact - that these 100,000 are recorded deaths.
The results are sensitive to all sorts of factors and all decent scientists will look at their results and compare them with other evidence to see how well they fit. The fact that the survey's estimates of pre-war mortality rates don't fit in with all the previous estimates should ring alarm bells for a start. Since the final figure is an "excess" figure, if they got the 'base rate' wrong then this renders the 'excess' or increase very unreliable. The sampling and interview techniques used are only one part of the story. The safest thing to say is that - using this technique - the number could be between 8,000 and 200,000. At this point a rational person will look at other evidence: 8,000 looks far to low seeing as Iraq Body Count is probably undercounting and has reported twice that figure. I'd expect 200,000 people wouldn't just 'disappear'. You may decide to put all your faith in statisticians and surveys going to 30-odd neighbourhoods then extrapolating across the whole of Iraq but given the shortcomings of the survey and the conditions it was operating under you have to take a 'reality check' whenever you produce any results, and compare them with other findings and facts.
In any case, the overall 100,000 estimate was only 60% 'violent deaths' and included insurgents and people killed by all sides.
It is only rational to look at the whole range of estimates and evidence available if you are interested in the truth. If on the other hand you just want to churn out cheap rhetoric then the 100,000 figure can be repeated again and again until noone questions what it actually means any more.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Who has denied this or has tried to pin all deaths on the US/UK, or even tried to limit the deaths to only 'violent deaths'? No one on this thread as far as i can see. You're building up something of a strawman there.TeeJay said:
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
chegrimandi said:
It says that we, in the West, are constantly bombarded with images of death and suffering from all over the world, and if we took the time out to honour all the dead then we would be in a constant state of paralysis. Life sucks, but I'm going to enjoy my moment in the sun. Sorry.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
No on this fucking thread they haven't. If you want to discuss claims made on other threads, then you know where to go - and don't try and force those claims onto posters on here who haven't even gone near making such statements.TeeJay said:
chegrimandi
associated with adultery
goldenecitrone said:
oh no how terrible for us. that must really upset us and put us out.
it says we give far more of a fuck about 'a few of our own' than thousands of others and it says we are happy to have bollocks spoken to us by our government and by our media and lap it up like the servile controlled imbeciles we are.
Enjoy the sun.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
chegrimandi said:
Speak for yourself.
TeeJay, your previous post was customarily long, but contained the following information pertinant to our discussion
1/ Iraq Body Count shows that aggregating the media reports leads to a much lower figure
2/ There are questions about the 'base-rate' figure
3/ You don't want the prediction to be true.
That is it.
1/ Iraq Body Count shows that aggregating the media reports leads to a much lower figure
2/ There are questions about the 'base-rate' figure
3/ You don't want the prediction to be true.
That is it.
chegrimandi
associated with adultery
goldenecitrone said:
what you say is what you are
it's an incredibly sick attitude. The people here who are in denial about the 100,000 figure (which I am sure is an underestimation in itself - it doesn't take Fallujah or a number of other incidents into account IIRC plus the few months that has lapsed since this research was done) and would rather quote 20,000 or whatever - how arrogant to talk about even this figure as if this is 'acceptable' (because that is how it is coming across). I just can’t begin to express how disturbing I find this attitude to be. Western arrogance at its worst.chegrimandi said:
chegrimandi
associated with adultery
X-77 said:it's an incredibly sick attitude. The people here who are in denial about the 100,000 figure (which I am sure is an underestimation in itself - it doesn't take Fallujah or a number of other incidents into account IIRC plus the few months that has lapsed since this research was done) and would rather quote 20,000 or whatever - how arrogant to talk about even this figure as if this is 'acceptable' (because that is how it is coming across). I just can’t begin to express how disturbing I find this attitude to be. Western arrogance at its worst.
steady on! we get bombarded with these awful pictures on telly - puts me right off me eastenders I can tell you!
how dare they die in such an horrific manner!
angry of I'm alright jack xx
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
chegrimandi said:what you say is what you are
I'm a long-haired lover from Liverpool. Oh fuck!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Well, a few people on here have an interest in minimising the figure of civillian deaths as they actually supported the war and all these nasty deaths don't really help them to try and argue that they were right to do so.X-77 said:it's an incredibly sick attitude. The people here who are in denial about the 100,000 figure (which I am sure is an underestimation in itself - it doesn't take Fallujah or a number of other incidents into account IIRC plus the few months that has lapsed since this research was done) and would rather quote 20,000 or whatever - how arrogant to talk about even this figure as if this is 'acceptable' (because that is how it is coming across). I just can’t begin to express how disturbing I find this attitude to be. Western arrogance at its worst.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
chegrimandi said:steady on! we get bombarded with these awful pictures on telly - puts me right off me eastenders I can tell you!
how dare they die in such an horrific manner!
angry of I'm alright jack xx
I just can't seem to enjoy myself anymore, what with all this pain and suffering going on around me
I feel so guilty and emotional that the world is so bad and yet outside the sun is shining and I'm just about to go out for a lovely beer.
Maybe I'll stick some forks in my legs while I drink
Sanctimonious of London. x
chegrimandi
associated with adultery
goldenecitrone said:
aww don't feel Bad! You done your bit! god is great.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
chegrimandi said:
That's true. These landmines don't make themselves you know. Now for some liquid refreshment.
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