Here's how Israel would destroy Iran's nuclear program

[frogwoman]

I doubt it would make Israel any friends either tbh.

 

[weltweit]

Thing is, as I understand it the Americans have developed some kind of bunker buster bomb which they planned to use (or did use) on the caves where they thought Bin Laden was hiding out.

Such weapons could perhaps be used against hardenned Iranian nuclear facilities, if the Americans supply them to Israel and give their consent to their use.

As to making friends frogwoman, don't you think Israel has given up on that, they only seem to care to keep the USA on their side, they don't seem to be that bothered about anyone else.

 

[cursed]

Thing is, as I understand it the Americans have developed some kind of bunker buster bomb which they planned to use (or did use) on the caves where they thought Bin Laden was hiding out.

Such weapons could perhaps be used against hardenned Iranian nuclear facilities, if the Americans supply them to Israel and give their consent to their use.

As to making friends frogwoman, don't you think Israel has given up on that, they only seem to care to keep the USA on their side, they don't seem to be that bothered about anyone else.

America made a bunker buster bomb for Osama Bin Laden ?? Have they used it yet in Afghanistan ??

Israel doesn't even care if America consents or not... It is the other way around ,,,

 

[weltweit]

America made a bunker buster bomb for Osama Bin Laden ?? Have they used it yet in Afghanistan ??

Well I am sure there have been plenty of bunker buster bombs in the history of combat but I am pretty sure I read about a special bomb being developed for or specially applied for the caves at Bora Bora.

Israel doesn't even care if America consents or not... It is the other way around ,,,

Indeed.

 

[cursed]

Well I am sure there have been plenty of bunker buster bombs in the history of combat but I am pretty sure I read about a special bomb being developed for or specially applied for the caves at Bora Bora.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/29/osama-bin-laden-senate-report

It is Tora Bora ,, The battle where Donald Rumsfeld let Osama escape in December , 2001 ,,,

Imagine Osama being captured or killed as early as December 2001 then how would Bush and his poodle justify Afghanistan's occupation ??

Capturing Osama or killing him was unfavorable to America's foreign policy,,,So I dismiss reports which says they made special bunker buster bomb for Osama ...

 

[weltweit]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/29/osama-bin-laden-senate-report

It is Tora Bora ,, The battle where Donald Rumsfeld let Osama escape in December , 2001 ,,,

Imagine Osama being captured or killed as early as December 2001 then how would Bush and his poodle justify Afghanistan's occupation ??

Capturing Osama or killing him was unfavorable to America's foreign policy,,,So I dismiss reports which says they made special bunker buster bomb for Osama ...

Oh, ok Tora Bora then..

And now Bush is gone but Bin Laden lives on..

Apparently.

 

[Nylock]

One thing that seems to be missed out in the almost febrile coverage of this story is that Iran isn't going to just let Israeli bombers steam into it's airspace and bomb the shit out of the place. Iran isn't Iraq, it is militarily in a much stronger position than iraq was when their nuclear facilities were bombed. If israeli bombers actually make it to their targets, i doubt if very many (or any at all) will make it back home.

Plus Iran could just mine the shit out of the straights of hormuz like they did back in the 1980's and virtually choke off supplies of persian gulf oil.

 

[Knotted]

Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites

Or maybe not:
Saudis: We will not give Israel air corridor for Iran Strike

Looks like someone was trying to embarrass the Saudi regime with this supposed leak.

 

[CyberRose]

What, against a few Israeli bombers? Yes.

Airstrikes obviously won't destroy nuclear sites but that doesn't mean Israel can't try other methods. I can't imagine, for example, that Israel doesn't have people working on Iran's nuclear sites on their payroll. So there's a 'way in' so to speak

 

[ViolentPanda]

I doubt Israel will do this tbh. If they did they would be pretty fucking stupid.

If they do (and they may, the stupidity is there, embodied in fat Bibi), the consequences may (no pun intended) blow back on them, in that losses of skilled personnel could be high. This isn't a Lebanon they're tackling, it's a country with a decent anti-aircraft defence set-up. While the politicians may be prepared to lose 10-20% (this seems to be the figure deemed "acceptable losses" on combat missions) of the pilots that fly into Iran, any higher than that (which is entirely possible) and the Israeli public may get even more narked at the government than they did over the Lebanon debacle.

 

[ViolentPanda]

What about the option of using diplomacy instead of its military? Of doing the decent thing? I bet the threat of a nuke hanging over their heads would create an amazing policy shift away from shooting and ethnically cleansing anything problematic, the loathesome turds.

Diplomacy is predicated either on solid bilateral communications, or on a neutral arbitrator policing those communications. Given that the US has placed itself (both as an individual state and as a member of "the quartet") in the arbitrator's role, and that the US has many interests in common with Israel, but not with Iran, the required neutrality doesn't exist, and diplomacy, if it can function at all, is severely handicapped.

 

[laptop]

Just an FYI.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1085619.html

Link not working for me - can you supply a couple of keywords to search for?

And a conspiracy theory as to where the article went

 

[ViolentPanda]

Israel *can't* destroy Iran's nuclear capability. They can carry on leaking all these plans to the Western press but it makes no difference.

Agreed. It's impossible, even with the advanced technology, in the form of fighter/bombers and their ordnance, plus sub-launched missiles and even static land-based missiles, for them to be sure that they've cleared the Iranian air defences, let alone that they can destroy enough of Iran's nuclear infrastructure to make a significant medium to long-term impact in any projects, civil or military, that Iran are undertaking. The best they can hope for is short to medium-term delays.

 

[ViolentPanda]

What is your reasoning for this *can't*?

Do you think for example that Iran has distributed its facilities adequately and hardenned them sufficiently?

Action has to be either simultaneous, or over a short time-period of maybe a couple of hours, at around 200 nuclear sites, as well as over a hundred static anti-aircraft defence positions and an unknown number of mobile anti-aircraft defence units. That means committing a large part of Israel's air capability and possibly leaving themselves with a severely diminished capability if their plans go awry.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Thing is, as I understand it the Americans have developed some kind of bunker buster bomb which they planned to use (or did use) on the caves where they thought Bin Laden was hiding out.

Such weapons could perhaps be used against hardenned Iranian nuclear facilities, if the Americans supply them to Israel and give their consent to their use.

As to making friends frogwoman, don't you think Israel has given up on that, they only seem to care to keep the USA on their side, they don't seem to be that bothered about anyone else.

IIRC, such a payload needs to be delivered from a heavy bomber, a slow-moving heavy bomber whose ceiling may or may not be compromised by Iran's air defence capabilities, depending on who you believe on the subject of Iran's armament holdings.
Just had a look on Janes'. Israel don't possess any heavy bombers, just F-15 and F-16 variants, some of which can be tasked for bombing roles. A BLU-82 "Daisy Cutter" (which was used on the Tora-Bora caves) weighs in at 15,000lbs. Payload limit for F-15 variants varies between 15,000-16,000lbs. Payload limit for F-16 variants varies between 15,000lb and 26,000lb (XL variant, which Israel don't use).
The GBU-43/B, which has superceded the BLU-82, weighs in a 22.500lbs. It was designed to be delivered by a C130 Hercules (slow turbo-prop transport/utility plane) out the rear door on a pallet, not from a fighter plane's weapons pods.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Well I am sure there have been plenty of bunker buster bombs in the history of combat but I am pretty sure I read about a special bomb being developed for or specially applied for the caves at Bora Bora.

Developed after Tora Bora because the "daisy cutters" didn't cut the daisies.

 

[nick h.]

I read about a special bomb being developed for or specially applied for the caves at Bora Bora.

If you spent a minute at wiki you could be less vague http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-43/B_Massive_Ordnance_Air_Blast_bomb
It explodes in mid air. Good against caves, but not a bunker buster, so not relevant to this discussion.

No nation in the world has a non-nuclear bomb which could destroy Iran's nuclear plants. They're too deep and the concrete shells around them are too thick. You can't take them out without invading or starting a nuclear war.

So we have a stand-off. Plenty more nations in the middle east want nukes, and they'll inevitably get them, so we'll have a cold war style period of MAD. None of the governments of these new nuclear powers will press the button first - why invite Israel and the US to flatten all your cities and kill most of your citizens? The thing we should fear is a bunch of nationless fanatics taking control of a country's nukes.

That's why the invasion of Iraq was such a bonus to Al-Qaeda. It destabilised the region and created scenarios in which they might grab Pakistan's weapons. Or Iraq's, if there are some still around, perhaps hidden in Syria.

If I was whoever's in charge of Al Qaeda these days I'd wait until Iran has a working weapon then pull off another 9-11 and pin it on Ahmadinejad.

 

[Knotted]

Link not working for me - can you supply a couple of keywords to search for?

Here's the article on Norman Finkelstein's web site:

http://www.normanfinkelstein.com/ev...plating-launching-nuclear-weapons-against-it/

And a conspiracy theory as to where the article went

I think they've rearranged the website. Still I can't find it. Spooky.

 

[laptop]

Here's the article on Norman Finkelstein's web site:

http://www.normanfinkelstein.com/ev...plating-launching-nuclear-weapons-against-it/

Thanks. So it's all based on a paper from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which:

...sprung out from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, and many of principals were also faculty members at the university. For some time CSIS had an office on the Georgetown campus. Several of the principals were "Cold Warriors" and made a little industry out of finding "communist influence" around the world. During the war against Nicaragua, CSIS produced several documents "proving" a communist plot, etc. For many years, CSIS was also seen as a think tank where right-wing "officials-in-waiting" could wait until their next appointment in government.

Georgetown standing, of course, in the same relation to the CIA and State as Magdalen, Oxford to the Cabinet...

I think they've rearranged the website. Still I can't find it. Spooky.

Hmmm indeed... though a search on Ha'aretz for the author Toukan does produce


Study: Israel may attack Iran nuclear sites with ballistic missiles 17.03.09

and

Fighting Iranian fire with fire 01.04.10

(the latter more of the same as cited in the OP).

 

[laptop]

Anyway, the actual payload, as it were, of the article as reproduced on Finkelstein's blog was:

The continual harping on the Iranian threat stems from domestic Israeli politics and a desire to increase investment in the security realm, but the ramifications of this are dangerous when you analyze expected developments in Iran’s ballistics: It is impossible for Israel to ignore Iran’s capacity to hit it, and Jerusalem must shape a policy that will neutralize that threat.

 

[DownwardDog]

The GBU-43/B, which has superceded the BLU-82, weighs in a 22.500lbs. It was designed to be delivered by a C130 Hercules (slow turbo-prop transport/utility plane) out the rear door on a pallet, not from a fighter plane's weapons pods.

The BLU-82/GBU-43 are area denial weapons for use against soft targets. The GBU-28 would be the weapon of choice for hardened targets. Israel has them and they'd be delivered by F-15Is from 69 Sqdn "Hammers" at Hatzerim.

ECM/SEAD challenges on Operation Gerard Butler would be more important than any weaponeering issues in my opinion.

 

[ViolentPanda]

The BLU-82/GBU-43 are area denial weapons for use against soft targets. The GBU-28 would be the weapon of choice for hardened targets. Israel has them and they'd be delivered by F-15Is from 69 Sqdn "Hammers" at Hatzerim.

Yep. I was replying to the point that you could pretty much use the same ordnance as was used at Tora Bora.

ECM/SEAD challenges...

Which, depending on which info source you believe, would range from minimal to daunting.

...on Operation Gerard Butler would be more important than any weaponeering issues in my opinion.

Good op name!

 

[kyser_soze]

You're talking about these babies, right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermobaric_weapon

Thermobaric weapons. There was a Future Weapons feature that included an interview with the female Sino-American weaps scientist & engineer who designed the US one...

 

[DownwardDog]

ECM/SEAD...

Which, depending on which info source you believe, would range from minimal to daunting.

Who knows really? Probably somewhere in the middle...

There's a few points to be borne in mind when considering the challenge.

- Russian wonder weapons (S-300 in this case) invariably turn out to be rubbish. This is especially true in non-Russian hands.

- The Israelis are probably pretty well clued up on the capabilities of the IRIAF. Who do you think kept the Iranian F-4s in the air once the US turned the spare parts tap off?

- Israeli SEAD doctrine has diverged quite significantly from NATO practice using ECM (the new G550 Shavit) and hunter-killer UAVs (Harop, as sold to Turkey, Germany and India) in preference to high speed air launched missiles (HARM, ALARM).

- In my opinion the Israeli government is more worried about trying it and fucking it up than anybody's else reaction to a successful operation so they won't take it on unless they are very confident.

 

[cursed]

Russia has canceled the delivery of S-300 Missile Systems to Iran ,, Will it affect defenses of Iran should Israel try to bomb its nuclear sites ??

Russia cancels S-300 delivery to Iran

 

[ViolentPanda]

Russia has canceled the delivery of S-300 Missile Systems to Iran ,, Will it affect defenses of Iran should Israel try to bomb its nuclear sites ??

Russia cancels S-300 delivery to Iran

IIRC Iran already has a stock of operational S-300 units cobbled together from grey (non-official) sources.
Iran is also in negotiation with China to buy export-ready HQ-9s (the PRC's S-300 equivalent).

 

[yield]

Has this already been posted? More sabre rattling hopefully.
Ex-CIA officer: Israel likely to attack Iran in September
Jerusalem Post 16/07/2011

Robert Baer tells LA KPFK radio that strike on Tehran likely to happen before vote on Palestinian state, that PM wants US to be involved.

Israel will probably attack Iran in September, a former CIA officer who spent 21 years in the Middle East, including in Lebanon and Syria, has told a Los Angeles radio show.

While Robert Baer didn’t reveal the sources behind his prediction, he referred to former Mossad chief Meir Dagan’s warnings of an Israeli attack on Iran as “no bluff.”

 

[likesfish]

The mighty s-300 same system as sold to Cyprus best buddies with Greece a member of NATO so in no way compromised
the IDF have been reduced to using its sledge hammer to crack walnuts as nobody else wants to play conventional warfare with them.
although some iranian scientists are meeting untimely ends so maybe israel is going about it via other means

 

[yield]

Understandably a different emphasis in the aljazeera article about Netanyahu being a nutter even the Israeli hawks don't trust.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Why is it scary. One of the conclusions it comes to is that Israel may not be able to do anything about Iran's program in which case, assuming the Iranians are working for a bomb there will be a MAD stalemate between Iran and Israel and they will both be as safe as the USA and USSR were in the cold war period.

Is it also possible that everyone needs to back-the-Hell-OFF, and allow things to progress, naturally, the way they did (during the Cold War years)???



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The idea that Tradition should determine the path/Future (of ANY Country) is absurd....and, only enriches/empowers the Conservatives who feel more comfortable maintaining the Status Quo.

Where is it written that everyone-else has some kind of obligation to make Life more-palatable/convenient for Conservatives (social & religious)?

It's time for the younger-population, in the Middle East, to say.....We've had ENOUGH!!

It wouldn't be the first time such a Revolution happened.​