Henley by-election results - Green 3rd, BNP 4th, Labour 5th

[JHE]

WILOTL?

What is left of the left

 

[caroline1973]

We also need to take steps to avoid another 10 years of New Labour authoritarian misrule.

Don't get me wrong I don't want thhe Tories back in national govt but something has got to be done.

Well I'm inclined to agree with you on both points Keyboard Jockey. And I think PR, which would inevitably bring the lib dems into a coalition, would be the best way to avoid either scenario.

i'm not a huge fan of the lib dems in many respects (i don't like their attitude to trade unions in particular) but i think their knee-jerk liberalism would be a healthy counter-balance to the authoritarian tendencies within both of the big parties.

now i've mentioned trade unions, i'm wondering - when are the trade unions going to wake up and drop their long standing opposition to PR? because i have a feeling that is part of what killed it in the past. surely it's time for a hasty re-think. otherwise all the unions are doing is protecting their influence in a party that is heading for a decade or more in the wilderness, which is worse than useless.

 

[caroline1973]

welcome to the sparsely populated P/P boards, Caroline....

thanks treelover! have been a long time lurker... time to come out of the shadows perhaps.

 

[nino_savatte]

In 1997 they got almost half as many votes as Michael Heseltine.

In this by election they got a tenth - that's not doing badly, that's meltdown.

If I was a Lesbian whale drop in centre "worker", i'd be looking for new career opportunities before the next election.

That was 1997 and it was a General Election. Traditionally, Henley has never been good for the Labour Party. It is a Tory stronghold and if the Tories were to lose Henley (which is never going to happen) it will be a day to savour.

 

[nino_savatte]

But what is shocking is the bnp doing so well. NL has lost 10k votes since 97. At one point they held their own there not any more. Looks like all the NL voters stayed at home in disgust.

Why are you so surprised? This is Henley we're talking about, not Liverpool Sefton.

 

[frogwoman]

I don't think Henley have ever had anyone except a Tory in that seat. It is well known for being a, erm, "bastion of conservatism" like where I'm from

What's interesting is that the CONSERVATIVE vote has also dropped since 1997.

 

[butchersapron]

Hesseltine's seat for years. Labour came within spitting distance in the immediate post-war elections but never close after that.

 

[shagnasty]

Its henley it doesn't matter only the wealthy live there wrong in even the richest of areas are pockets quite large pockets of people who are not wealthy .i live between mill hill and edgware but where i live on a large council estate with a strong tradition of labour voting are the areas that should be turning out for nu labour but their staying at home

 

[pingupete]

Thanks Matt S - typo on my name though!

Went to the Searchlight meeting this week up here. There is a hell of a lot to do but the key thing is turnout. If people are interested in getting stuck in up here, then PM me.

A Griffin win in the NW next year means 5 years of him as a "legitimate" politician, with about £250k a year of public funds going to Griffin and his staff, which they will no doubt use to build up their political base and legitimacy.

Griffin failing to win in the NW next year means major infighting as they all try and topple him and install someone new. Serious infighting should lead to the kind of splits we've seen on the left for many years.

Be in no doubt at all, despite their money, UKIP are struggling and will not get the kind of share of the vote that will enable them to hold their seat. That means as little as 7.5% in the region will elect Griffin.

 

[audiotech]

Shudders at the thought of suffering Griffin for five years and also to think that some people on here actually believe and argue that anti-fascism is somehow 'counter productive'.

pingupete's post points to the absurdity of that belief.

 

[geoff64]

i don't think anyone is arguing that anti-fascism per se is counterproductive, only a/f as it is currently constituted may be counterprod. and that positive class politics as opposed to simply being anti- fascist may be a way forward to address the successes of the BNP ...

 

[audiotech]

i don't think anyone is arguing that anti-fascism per se is counterproductive, only a/f as it is currently constituted may be counterprod. and that positive class politics as opposed to simply being anti- fascist may be a way forward to address the successes of the BNP ...

Not another 'maybe'?

Read pingupete's post again and understand the urgency of anti-fascism, like now. 'Positive' class politics is all about unity,not some meaningless purist debate, or in some cases outright abuse.

 

[geoff64]

Not another 'maybe'?

Read pingupete's post again and understand the urgency of anti-fascism, like now. 'Positive' class politics is all about unity,not some meaningless purist debate, or in some cases outright abuse.

'maybe! because i don't actually fucking know, but i think it's worth a try and its something i'm arguing for.

1/ why do you think what i'm arguing is a 'purist debate' - it clearly isn't. It's actually far from purist - it's actually about persuading serious a/f to get their hands dirty.

2/ where's the abuse?!

jesus, every time i post s'thing about this subject you can rely on MC5 to jump down my throat. Fuck knows why. We don't agree, but ...

 

[The Black Hand]

BNP have been picking up 10-15% in local polls for the last few years (the average in the may elections was i think 13.9%). The highest % needed to pick up a seat in any region in the euroelection is circa 18%, the lowest around 6%, the otherss all around 11% The BNP picked up an average of 5% last time around, but the now struggling UKIP picked up 16%, a combnined toal well over every single regional threshold. The BNP in 2004 was just starting it's upward climb as well, they today look a lot more electorable, respectable etc and a BNP vote is now well on the way to being normalised. They look in good shape and their direct competitors look like they're crumbling. One MEP is do-able, maybe more.

North west - need 8.5%, scored 6.4% last time
Yorkshire and humber - need 11.5%, 8% last time
west mids - 11.5% and 7.5%

All winnable if enough UKIP voters come across and the rise in a simple pro-BNP of the last few years continues.

However there is still the weight of British tradition which could be and hopefully is a gulf too far for many UKIP followers to jump. That tradition is in an avoidance of out and out support for a filthy fascist party such as the BNP. Time will tell.

Will it shake you 'independent' goons out of your complacency if it happens though? Will you bite the bullet and actually do political work with other people given the increasing seriousness of the situation.

How serious does it have to get before you do actually do some serious thinking? That is a question I would like to know the answer to as you currently are affecting nothing with your ultra leftism.

 

[Darios]

Will you bite the bullet and actually do political work with other people given the increasing seriousness of the situation.

What are you proposing?

How serious does it have to get before you do actually do some serious thinking?

Going by the sentiments expressed on this thread the primary concern appears to be the gradually increasing electoral success of the BNP et al.

From what I've seen first hand in Sheffield you should actually be far more concerned with the changing opinions on the ground rather than electoral behaviour - these opinions are going to explode into something really ugly, possibly race-tainted vigilantism, much sooner than the BNP starts routinely picking up MPs, MEPs etc.

I have no faith in your own ability to perceive this problem given the absolute bollocks you wrote about the copper in Sheffield being accused of racist conduct outside of the Niche nightclub (which was nothing of the sort, but being ACAB you weren't even willing to look into the details). What's more, on a personal level, I feel powerless to stop it because every left wing group or "solution" I've ever seen seems to involve preaching at these people and completely dismissing their valid concerns.

 

[JimPage]

It's Henley innit? Labour are never going to do well there.

Disagree - look at the results in 1997/2001/2005 posted above- votes ranging from 14% to 20%

While in principle, never a winnable seat for Labour - this should be an absymal one for BNP. And pretyy mch all of the media over last two years have been focussing on "BNP beat Labour"

If I read ther runes on this election correctly, the BNP made inroads into the small numbver of working class estates in the constituency- its only the middle class areas which gave Labour as high a vote as they did.

 

[JimPage]

They have been, consistently and with some effect for the last 3 or 4 years. They're well aware of the potential of a crossover vote. It looks like the UKIP is struggling anyway.

And English Democrats being beaten by OMRLP in second by election in row. If there is any movement on far right- expect it to be more ED to BNP than UKIP to BNP first

 

[nino_savatte]

Disagree - look at the results in 1997/2001/2005 posted above- votes ranging from 14% to 20%

While in principle, never a winnable seat for Labour - this should be an absymal one for BNP. And pretyy mch all of the media over last two years have been focussing on "BNP beat Labour"

If I read ther runes on this election correctly, the BNP made inroads into the small numbver of working class estates in the constituency- its only the middle class areas which gave Labour as high a vote as they did.

Labour's chances of actually winning the seat range from nil to 1:1,000,000. That was my point.

 

[The Black Hand]

o rly.

 

[nino_savatte]

Eh?

 

[The Black Hand]

BNP have been picking up 10-15% in local polls for the last few years (the average in the may elections was i think 13.9%). The highest % needed to pick up a seat in any region in the euroelection is circa 18%, the lowest around 6%, the otherss all around 11% The BNP picked up an average of 5% last time around, but the now struggling UKIP picked up 16%, a combnined toal well over every single regional threshold. The BNP in 2004 was just starting it's upward climb as well, they today look a lot more electorable, respectable etc and a BNP vote is now well on the way to being normalised. They look in good shape and their direct competitors look like they're crumbling. One MEP is do-able, maybe more.

North west - need 8.5%, scored 6.4% last time
Yorkshire and humber - need 11.5%, 8% last time
west mids - 11.5% and 7.5%

All winnable if enough UKIP voters come across and the rise in a simple pro-BNP of the last few years continues.

This post is evidence of crass ultra leftism being used as what passes for theory and evidence. It is neither. There is no consideration of alternative possibilities, evidence or interpretation - for example perhaps some people voted BNP in 2004 cos it was a protest vote and would not do so again? In the absence of evidence it is pure speculatation.

What is potentially more serious is the lack of understanding of what theory is, for example by the use of the 'argument winning' sounding phrase 'normalisation'. In truth, it is a huge category affected by all sorts of things (variables), and it is a concept which would have to be unpacked and defined because it can mean any number of things.

Also, what to me seems important is to unpack the process of 'normalisation'. For example, does the journey from abnormal to 'normalisation' occur with a simple skip and a jump? I think not.

Rather there are hurdles along the way, and sub categories which make up the entire process of normalisation - the stages at which the process has to go through, and this will be different for different communities.

Until I see that, you do not have Marxist theory.

 

[The Black Hand]

Eh?

Whoops - I was replying to a different post...

 

[nino_savatte]

Whoops - I was replying to a different post...

Right, as you were then.

 

[The Black Hand]

What are you proposing?

Going by the sentiments expressed on this thread the primary concern appears to be the gradually increasing electoral success of the BNP et al.

From what I've seen first hand in Sheffield you should actually be far more concerned with the changing opinions on the ground rather than electoral behaviour - these opinions are going to explode into something really ugly, possibly race-tainted vigilantism, much sooner than the BNP starts routinely picking up MPs, MEPs etc.

I have no faith in your own ability to perceive this problem given the absolute bollocks you wrote about the copper in Sheffield being accused of racist conduct outside of the Niche nightclub (which was nothing of the sort, but being ACAB you weren't even willing to look into the details). What's more, on a personal level, I feel powerless to stop it because every left wing group or "solution" I've ever seen seems to involve preaching at these people and completely dismissing their valid concerns.

O rly?

 

[The Black Hand]

This post is evidence of crass ultra leftism being used as what passes for theory and evidence. It is neither. There is no consideration of alternative possibilities, evidence or interpretation - for example perhaps some people voted BNP in 2004 cos it was a protest vote and would not do so again? In the absence of evidence it is pure speculatation.

What is potentially more serious is the lack of understanding of what theory is, for example by the use of the 'argument winning' sounding phrase 'normalisation'. In truth, it is a huge category affected by all sorts of things (variables), and it is a concept which would have to be unpacked and defined because it can mean any number of things.

Also, what to me seems important is to unpack the process of 'normalisation'. For example, does the journey from abnormal to 'normalisation' occur with a simple skip and a jump? I think not.

Rather there are hurdles along the way, and sub categories which make up the entire process of normalisation - the stages at which the process has to go through, and this will be different for different communities.

Until I see that, you do not have Marxist theory.

Just to help your failing eyesight - Missed this did you Butch

 

[gorski]

You think he cares? Hehe...

 

[butchersapron]

For once my little chetnik you're correct. I could not care less.

 

[gorski]

Oh, Bitch, you hurt me so bad....

And no, I am "correct" in these things most of the time, unlike you...

 

[The Black Hand]

For once my little chetnik you're correct. I could not care less.

Perhaps you should - you have black holes in your politics with these gaping misses. Any thinking Marxist can spot them - but of course the in crowd do not know what Marxism is.

 

[The Black Hand]

You eyesight is getting worse butch.