Henley by-election results - Green 3rd, BNP 4th, Labour 5th

[Haller]

Wow, turnout was really low compared with previous votes.

Once again, it looks to me as less of a switch of votes from one party to another and more like the supporters of one party simply staying home.

I think this is right. I doubt if many Labour voters switched.

Conventional wisdom on this kind of by-election - where an MP vacates the seat in pursuit of a better job - is that the electorate don't like it very much. And in that context, the Lib Dems didn't make much impression.

 

[Hocus Eye.]

If I was a Lesbian whale drop in centre "worker", i'd be looking for new career opportunities before the next election.

Hey mate wake up, you're dribbling and mumbling to yourself - time to go home now.

 

[KeyboardJockey]

It's Henley innit? Labour are never going to do well there.

But what is shocking is the bnp doing so well. NL has lost 10k votes since 97. At one point they held their own there not any more. Looks like all the NL voters stayed at home in disgust.

 

[Cobbles]

It is bad certainly, but I think it is far removed from a crisis. In a general election for example I can see their vote increasing dramatically.

Gosh - you mean like doubling to 2,000 votes! - that'd be only 7,000 away from their performance in 1997 - nah, they're finished.

Next thing you know, they'll vote for massive increases in pension funding for ex-MP's so they can have one last wallow in the trough. Are there enough Unions and 3rd rate polytechnics around to provide them all with jobs when they get turfed out of the Commons?

 

[Haller]

But what is shocking is the bnp doing so well. NL has lost 10k votes since 97.

They came fourth. With 3.58% of the vote on a low turnout. And got beaten by the Greens. That's 'doing well' by what standard?

 

[KeyboardJockey]

They came fourth. With 3.58% of the vote on a low turnout. And got beaten by the Greens. That's 'doing well' by what standard?

By comparison to how they were doing five years ago for instance. The real loser out of this one is NL.

 

[editor]

*threads merged

 

[d.a.s.h]

Yes the BNP did not do well in Henley. It is not the sort of 'ethnic frontier' area where they'd be expected to do well either.

 

[Haller]

By comparison to how they were doing five years ago for instance. The real loser out of this one is NL.

Yes, Labour took one hell of a beating. By-elections used to be an exercise in anti-Tory voting, with one of the other main candidates getting squeezed out by tactical voting. Here it didn't look like that - the Lib Dems made virtually no progress, so the former Labour votes didn't go their way. Didn't go anywhere, in fact.

But I can't see the BNP vote as being very significant. Except that they got more votes than Labour. Which says more about Labour than it does the BNP.

 

[KeyboardJockey]

Yes, Labour took one hell of a beating. By-elections used to be an exercise in anti-Tory voting, with one of the other main candidates getting squeezed out by tactical voting. Here it didn't look like that - the Lib Dems made virtually no progress, so the former Labour votes didn't go their way. Didn't go anywhere, in fact.

But I can't see the BNP vote as being very significant. Except that they got more votes than Labour. Which says more about Labour than it does the BNP.

You have a point there. When a governing party is beaten by a small extremist party it reflects worse on NL than on the BNP.

 

[bouncer_the_dog]

Being from round those parts I'm pretty shocked by the BNP result! I didn't realise they were running...

 

[kabbes]

But what is shocking is the bnp doing so well.

They came fourth. With 3.58% of the vote on a low turnout. And got beaten by the Greens. That's 'doing well' by what standard?

By comparison to how they were doing five years ago for instance. The real loser out of this one is NL.

They didn't stand in 2005, 2001 OR 1997. In other words, this is the first time they have stood. So it's hard to get a comparitor, really.

3-4% of the vote is not something to crow about.

 

[JHE]

Neither the Greens (3.8%) nor the BNP (3.6%) did well. It's just a case of the Labour Party doing stupendously badly.

Why? Unimpressive candidate and unpopular government, I suppose.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Looks as though the BNP could have replaced UKIP as the default far right option. If true on a wider scale than just Henley (e.g. their marginalisation of UKIP in yesterday's Blackpool council by-election...12.3% BNP , 1.7% UKIP), then the next European Parliament elections will be 'interesting'; especially as they are help on a PR and not a FPTP basis.

Louis MacNeice

 

[treelover]

Drav said
The future is looking very bleak indeed.

Yes, i think we are going to go more like the U.S with a much higer level of poverty, a massive extension in crime and people in prison as benefits are slashed, etc, last night BBC news gave an indication of what a Cameron Govt may be like, anyone will be able to run a school, no such thing as entitlements to welfare, a largely privatised NHS, and they are only the more visible things,

and all this will happen with a declining world economy, rising food/utility prices and in europe a resurgent far right

surely not the '30's in slow motion' after all?

 

[caroline1973]

collapsing from 14% of the vote to just 3% means that 80% of those voting labour last time deserted them, preferring to vote for just about any other party, including the tories and the BNP, or just to stay home.

extremely ominous. i don't know anyone who seriously thinks labour can win the next election on the current system.

if i was them i would be seriously making plans to put through a bill to bring in proportional representation, as the only way to avoid at least 10 years of tory misrule.

yes it would be completely blatant - but who cares? if you think about it, in what other circumstances would we ever get PR brought in? the current system is completely unfair and means that politicians ignore most of us whilst competing for a few thousand swing voters in daily mail heartlands.

 

[KeyboardJockey]

if i was them i would be seriously making plans to put through a bill to bring in proportional representation, as the only way to avoid at least 10 years of tory misrule.

We also need to take steps to avoid another 10 years of New Labour authoritarian misrule.

Don't get me wrong I don't want thhe Tories back in national govt but something has got to be done.

 

[kabbes]

Proportional representation is long, long, LONG overdue in this country.

 

[JHE]

Back in the early days of Blair and touches of Lib-Labbery there was talk of electoral reform for Westminster, but unfortunately:

(i) The Labour Party didn't want it. In the govt, Prescott & Brown & most others were against it, IIRC. (Robin Cook was a supporter of PR, I think, but that's relatively uncommon in the Labour Party.)

(ii) The electoral reform proposed by Jenkins and considered by Blair was not proper PR (eg, a proper party list system, that I'd support) but some shitty little scam to strengthen parties seen to be of the 'centre'.

 

[poster342002]

Proportional representation is long, long, LONG overdue in this country.

Interesting how if we got PR along with a govt that scraps ID cards, scraps 42 Days, bans council snooping, scraps CCTV everywhere, offers a choice over whether to adopt neo-con ideology etc etc upon takling office, the UK would feel like a country "in transition to democracy" as they say ...

Says a lot about how far down the greasy slope we've fallen.

 

[treelover]

welcome to the sparsely populated P/P boards, Caroline....

 

[Wilf]

Looks as though the BNP could have replaced UKIP as the default far right option. If true on a wider scale than just Henley (e.g. their marginalisation of UKIP in yesterday's Blackpool council by-election...12.3% BNP , 1.7% UKIP), then the next European Parliament elections will be 'interesting'; especially as they are help on a PR and not a FPTP basis.

Louis MacNeice

Yes, good post. This wasn't a good potential seat for Labour - just as it wasn't for the BNP. Its the symbolic thing about being beaten by the fash.

As you say the issue will be whether the BNP start to get the kind of figures UKIP got in previous PR euro elections. Quite possible that they could replace them as the party for the 'angry but respectable' right wing protest vote. Especially given UKIPs dismal performance as MEPs and internal wrangles. [yes, I know they are not respectable - they are still fash - but that's the image they seem to be having some success in projecting]

 

[Matt S]

It's already going to be very very difficult to stop the BNP getting their first MEP next year, even if such a surge doesn't materialise.

Matt

 

[Wilf]

It's already going to be very very difficult to stop the BNP getting their first MEP next year, even if such a surge doesn't materialise.

Matt

Be inteesting to see if the BNP start making all out attacks on ukip

 

[butchersapron]

Be inteesting to see if the BNP start making all out attacks on ukip

They have been, consistently and with some effect for the last 3 or 4 years. They're well aware of the potential of a crossover vote. It looks like the UKIP is struggling anyway.

 

[KeyboardJockey]

Be inteesting to see if the BNP start making all out attacks on ukip

UKIP are imploding due to internal indiscipline and personality failiures on the part of the MEP's themselves.

The BNP do have a few failed personalities on their books but they do have a much better internal party discipline and use it to good effect.

Yup. My prediction is a bnp mep next time as well.

 

[Matt S]

If anyone is interested in knowing more about the situation in the Euros next year, particularly in the North-West, U75's 'pinguppete' is on the ball with it all.

Matt

 

[butchersapron]

BNP have been picking up 10-15% in local polls for the last few years (the average in the may elections was i think 13.9%). The highest % needed to pick up a seat in any region in the euroelection is circa 18%, the lowest around 6%, the otherss all around 11% The BNP picked up an average of 5% last time around, but the now struggling UKIP picked up 16%, a combnined toal well over every single regional threshold. The BNP in 2004 was just starting it's upward climb as well, they today look a lot more electorable, respectable etc and a BNP vote is now well on the way to being normalised. They look in good shape and their direct competitors look like they're crumbling. One MEP is do-able, maybe more.

North west - need 8.5%, scored 6.4% last time
Yorkshire and humber - need 11.5%, 8% last time
west mids - 11.5% and 7.5%

All winnable if enough UKIP voters come across and the rise in a simple pro-BNP of the last few years continues.

 

[treelover]

WILOTL would die for results like that, what can they do?

 

[Louis MacNeice]

WILOTL would die for results like that, what can they do?

WILOTL?

Louis (feeling dense) MacNeice