Harry's 7/4 for the chop

[Augie March]

I don't think so.

I read somewhere that these surprise drop in betting odds are part of an elaborate (and costly) betting scam. For example, a large amount of money will be placed on a certain event taking place e.g. a manager getting the sack be it Harry or Rafa. Then the odds for the event starts to drop, creating at rumour that maybe someone in the know, knows something. The media picks up on it and then everyone wants a piece of the action and places a bet themselves. The odds drop further and the rumour that neither had any substance in the first place, suddenly looks like it could actually happen.

Except it doesn't. And the original people behind it in the first place know it won't. They meanwhile have placed even more amounts of cash on something opposite to happen to the rumour e.g. Harry or Rafa not getting the sack. These odds have now gone up whilst everyone is assuming they will go. Then they rake in the extra dough and go about the scam again on a different, fictional event to happen and so on.

At least I think that's how it goes anyway.

 

[STFC]

Maybe there was a bit more to this?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2009/oct/04/harry-redknapp-milan-mandaric-crouch

Is it usual for managers to take a cut of onward transfer fees? I would have thought it's a conflict of interest.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

Is it usual for managers to take a cut of onward transfer fees? I would have thought it's a conflict of interest.

Apparently it's not unusual. The Board would normally have final say over transfers anyway, and the cut is *supposedly* an incentive to a manager to develop a player and not agree to sell him until he's a worth a few bob. Mike Newell apparently got 10% of transfer profits when he was at Luton.

 

[STFC]

Thanks. I'd never heard of any such arrangement before.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I don't think so.

I read somewhere that these surprise drop in betting odds are part of an elaborate (and costly) betting scam. For example, a large amount of money will be placed on a certain event taking place e.g. a manager getting the sack be it Harry or Rafa. Then the odds for the event starts to drop, creating at rumour that maybe someone in the know, knows something. The media picks up on it and then everyone wants a piece of the action and places a bet themselves. The odds drop further and the rumour that neither had any substance in the first place, suddenly looks like it could actually happen.

Except it doesn't. And the original people behind it in the first place know it won't. They meanwhile have placed even more amounts of cash on something opposite to happen to the rumour e.g. Harry or Rafa not getting the sack. These odds have now gone up whilst everyone is assuming they will go. Then they rake in the extra dough and go about the scam again on a different, fictional event to happen and so on.

At least I think that's how it goes anyway.

Well whether it's a deliberate scam or not the market in 'next manager to be sacked' is likely to be especially vulnerable to that. I'd imagine that on a day-to-day basis the bookies take next to no money on it - who sits down and decides to bet on that out of the blue? So when there's a rumour about one manager the odds are going to come right in very quickly as all the money in the market is on the same bet.

If it is a scam the bookies must take more from people jumping on the bandwagon and chucking their money away than they lose to whoever has done it or they'd stop running the market.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

In fact, if you were a bookie looking to make a few quid you could do worse than suddenly shorten the odds on a manager getting the sack and post a rumour or two on the internet. Not that they'd do that of course.

 

[RaverDrew]

I don't think so.

I read somewhere that these surprise drop in betting odds are part of an elaborate (and costly) betting scam. For example, a large amount of money will be placed on a certain event taking place e.g. a manager getting the sack be it Harry or Rafa. Then the odds for the event starts to drop, creating at rumour that maybe someone in the know, knows something. The media picks up on it and then everyone wants a piece of the action and places a bet themselves. The odds drop further and the rumour that neither had any substance in the first place, suddenly looks like it could actually happen.

Except it doesn't. And the original people behind it in the first place know it won't. They meanwhile have placed even more amounts of cash on something opposite to happen to the rumour e.g. Harry or Rafa not getting the sack. These odds have now gone up whilst everyone is assuming they will go. Then they rake in the extra dough and go about the scam again on a different, fictional event to happen and so on.

At least I think that's how it goes anyway.

Yep it's very easy to do. Can be done with an initial bet as small as £1000. The weight of money forces the odds to move creating a knock on effect
with the price tumbling. The bet can then be layed-off for profit at any time.

 

[linerider]

Yep it's very easy to do. Can be done with an initial bet as small as £1000. The weight of money forces the odds to move creating a knock on effect
with the price tumbling. The bet can then be layed-off for profit at any time.

True,but this is Bugpuss we're talking about.

 

[RaverDrew]

like he'd do a thing like that