grand national tips thread

[marty21]

I put a fiver on the nose Parson's legacy -

and £2.50 e/w on state of play - which got me back £11.25

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

the missus got second place (as usual, she always tips one of the top 4), £10 total stake, £25 return, few free beers for us that evening which was nice.

 

[The Octagon]

If you use a bookie and convert all the odds on offer in a race to percentages (for example 4/1 = 25% chance), the toal percentage would be in the region of 115-117%. Obviously there is only 100%, the extra 15-17% in the bookies built in profit. Hence, over time, you can't beat the bookies unless you have a very good angle.

Look up 'overround' on Google for a better explanation.

Thanks,

So just to be clear, if I had bet, say, a grand on every horse in the race (39 runners by my count), therefore spending £39,000, what would my return have been?

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Thanks,

So just to be clear, if I had bet, say, a grand on every horse in the race (39 runners by my count), therefore spending £39,000, what would my return have been?

A grand to win? - You would have won £100,000

 

[London_Calling]

You would have done it differently. You'd have bet different amounts on each horse to return the same amount.

 

[kabbes]

Potentially stupid question (and after the horse has bolted, so to speak), but what is the downside to betting the same amount on every horse in the National (to finish in the top 4)?

I know it would have paid off in this race particularly, with the winner being 100-1, but as far as I can see whichever 4 horses came in first would result in you making your money back at least (just, if it was the lowest priced horses).

Am I missing something?

To expand on L_C's point, the lowest priced horses were all less than 10-1, weren't they? So at best, if the four lowest priced horses won (assuming I remember how each way works), you'd get 3/4 × 10-1 + 1/2 × 10-1 = £12.50 + your original £4 back for each £1 bet. I.e. £16.50. Meanwhile, you'd have bet a lot more than £16.50, because there were more than 17 runners.

 

[The Octagon]

A grand to win? - You would have won £100,000

What about if I'd bet on each horse to finish in the top four?

You would have done it differently. You'd have bet different amounts on each horse to return the same amount.

Ah right.

It's all rhetorical, I wish I had that sort of dosh to spare

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

Thanks,

So just to be clear, if I had bet, say, a grand on every horse in the race (39 runners by my count), therefore spending £39,000, what would my return have been?

40 bets at £10 per bet = £800 (e/w bets are double the stake)

1st: Mon Mome (100/1) = £1,010, plus £260
2nd: Comply Or Die (14/1) = £45
3rd: My Will (8/1) = £30
4th: State of Play (14/1) = £45

Total winnings = £1,390. Net profit = £590.

Given the fact that this is the first 100/1 shot to win for ~30 years, I would be very surprised at such a beneficial result occuring again in the near future tbh.

 

[kabbes]

Thanks,

So just to be clear, if I had bet, say, a grand on every horse in the race (39 runners by my count), therefore spending £39,000, what would my return have been?

I think that betting each way nets you half odds for a winner and quarter odds for 2nd to 4th (someone correct me if not).

So in this race you'd get £50,000 for the winner and then (without bothering to look it up and assuming that 2nd to 4th were in the order of 10-1 to 20-1) something like another £10,000 for 2nd to 4th. So £60,000 + original stakes -- a nice little £25,000 profit.

That's just because a total outsider happened to win on this occassion though.

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

E/w bets usually pay out the winning odds as well as the e/w odds afaik. So in the eg above, Mon mome pays out £1010 on the £10 stake at 100-1 and £260 on the £10 stake at 25-1.

 

[kabbes]

... but I missed out the doubling of the stake, didn't I? Or, I suppose, you could look at it that for a given stake, it pays out half the odds for a win and 1/8 the odds for a 2nd to 4th?

 

[The Octagon]

Interesting (but not easily repeatable then)

Gracias.

 

[Mr Retro]

I think that betting each way nets you half odds for a winner and quarter odds for 2nd to 4th (someone correct me if not).

You only get 1/4 the odds for first too.

In an each way bet you actually have 2 different bets. A bet that the horse will win and a seperate bet that the horse will be placed.

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

I know someone who put on £5 each way on Mon Mome. Think she gets £625 back.

I had Black Apalachi, Silver Birch, Comply or Die and Offshore Account.

First two were doing really well until the 22nd fence

 

[London_Calling]

A £30 bet brings home £65,000 pot:

A man who put a total bet of £30 on three of the top horses in the Grand National has won £65,000.

Jason Darmody, from Swindon, selected three horses to finish in the top four of the race.

Bookmakers William Hill said the win, which had an 11,848-to-one chance of coming in, was the biggest the company was aware of for this year's National.