Gordon Brown - dead man walking?

[shagnasty]

I wonder if now that it seems like nu labour is self destructing will the lib dems swing slightly left trying to fill the gap in labours core vote.how history repeats itself the brown affair seems like deja-vu major all over again

 

[JHE]

Except that mild-mannered Major did put on his special underpants, resign the Tory Party leadership and challenge his disloyal colleagues to 'put up or shut up'. I don't think big bruiser Brown's going to do that.

I'd be fun if he did, though.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Stop being coy JHE, you think he's going for it.

He's two years too soon.

Where oh where is the modern day kinnock

If he doesn't go now labour will be wiped out at the next election.

 

[Haller]

Except that mild-mannered Major did put on his special underpants, resign the Tory Party leadership and challenge his disloyal colleagues to 'put up or shut up'.

Before he did that, Major had led the Tories to the largest vote ever recorded for a party in a British general election.

Without wishing to be too controversial, I don't think Brown is going to achieve that.

 

[Haller]

I wonder if now that it seems like nu labour is self destructing will the lib dems swing slightly left trying to fill the gap in labours core vote.

The Lib Dems are moving rightwards. I think their calculation is that Brown will go for the Labour core vote as the only chance of salvaging something from the wreckage, and the real fight will be on the centre ground where Cameron and Clegg will fight to gain the Blairite end of the New Labour coalition.

 

[butchersapron]

There is no sign whatsoever of Brown moving 'leftward'. Even if there were, shoring up labour's tradtional core vote will not win them the next election. It'dll merely stop total wipeout.

 

[SpookyFrank]

There is no sign whatsoever of Brown moving 'leftward'. Even if there were, shoring up labour's tradtional core vote will not win them the next election. It'dll merely stop total wipeout.

Stopping total wipeout has to be some kind of aim though surely? Carry on with business as usual and Labour might be facing the same disaster that befell the tories in '97, but with a change of leader and a genuine shift towards something vaguely resembling socialist principles, defence of public services and the welfare state etc they might just retain some credibility after their defeat to Cameron. At least that's what I hope would happen, it's entirely possible the British public has genuinely lost all taste for the concept of not fucking everybody over for money...

 

[butchersapron]

Stopping total wipeout has to be some kind of aim though surely? Carry on with business as usual and Labour might be facing the same disaster that befell the tories in '97, but with a change of leader and a genuine shift towards something vaguely resembling socialist principles, defence of public services and the welfare state etc they might just retain some credibility after their defeat to Cameron. At least that's what I hope would happen, it's entirely possible the British public has genuinely lost all taste for the concept of not fucking everybody over for money...

I'm sure the more hard headed of their strategists would be thinking along those lines (i.e step 1 stop wipeout). The current leadership doesn't though.

I thionk the other stuff about a proper leftward shift is just not going to happen. The one thing that shpuld be clear to all by now, no matter what happens in terms of party leaders, is that real policy will not change. It will stay within the same broad channels as all the other parties.

 

[Haller]

There is no sign whatsoever of Brown moving 'leftward'. Even if there were, shoring up labour's tradtional core vote will not win them the next election. It'dll merely stop total wipeout.

You're right - no sign at all of him doing so. But I suspect it's the Lib Dems calculation that it's the only sensible course for him.

Or maybe I'm projecting my own perspective on to them, cos I can't see what else he can do to avoid total humiliation at the 2010 election other than to try to reclaim Labour voters alienated by Blair. He's certainly not going to get the middle-class support that Blair courted.

Well, there is one other option and that's to give the impression of competence. But that depends on things getting better in the economy (unlikely) and to hope that Cameron fucks up big-time (slightly more likely, but not by much). It probably also requires a cabinet of much higher quality than he currently has.

 

[JHE]

I wonder if now that it seems like nu labour is self destructing will the lib dems swing slightly left trying to fill the gap in labours core vote.

Rather bizarrely, it is the Tories who, having decided that there is such a thing as society, are trying to present themselves are the party more concerned with the 'broken society' and the injustice of inequality. Yesterday Gove was complaining about inequality in the school system: Tories attack school poverty gap. It's extraordinary that the Tories should present themselves as the more egalitarian of the major parties. That's some measure of some of the Nulab failures over the last decade.

 

[Das Uberdog]

Interesting take from Jenni Russell in y/days Graun.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/04/conservatives.davidcameron

 

[Paulie Tandoori]

There is no sign whatsoever of Brown moving 'leftward'. Even if there were, shoring up labour's tradtional core vote will not win them the next election. It'dll merely stop total wipeout.

There's never been much sign of Labour going leftwards anyway, when they've had a chance of power. Johnson/whoever versus Miliband/Purnell. Who would you fancy? At least you'd know who the enemy was with one lot of them...Cruddas comes from my home town oddly enough, Mebyon Kernow innit.

 

[nino_savatte]

Rather bizarrely, it is the Tories who, having decided that there is such a thing as society, are trying to present themselves are the party more concerned with the 'broken society' and the injustice of inequality. Yesterday Gove was complaining about inequality in the school system: Tories attack school poverty gap. It's extraordinary that the Tories should present themselves as the more egalitarian of the major parties. That's some measure of some of the Nulab failures over the last decade.

Given the Tories track record, this is nothing but a load of empty words. If they ever get into power, you can guarantee that they will change their tune in line with something more familiar: kill the poor.

 

[audiotech]

Given the Tories track record, this is nothing but a load of empty words. If they ever get into power, you can guarantee that they will change their tune in line with something more familiar: kill the poor.

Particularly the "underserving".