if we have a cold winter this wnter, then probably around January / February if there's a big storm that stops the LNG tankers from docking for a few days that could be lights out / heating off / heavy industries on short time working. More likely that the wholesale price of gas would go through the roof though before supply is miraculously restored. Apparently last winter we came pretty close to having no reserves of gas on the network, but some of the LNG facilities were holding back stores until the price went through the roof and they could then make a fortune simply by turning the taps on. We've lost a huge amount of coal generating plant in the last 2-3 years, including something like 5GW since last winter, and this winter we've lost at least 2/3 of our gas storage capacity at a time when we're far more reliant on gas for electricity generation to get us through the winter than ever before. I'll put serious money on the government attempting to blame renewables for any black outs if they happen, rather than their policy decisions particularly around gas storage.