Discussion in 'world politics, current affairs and news' started by Falcon, Mar 26, 2008.
Not a nice day for equities. US markets really tanking.
I see the bond market has gone into an inverted yield curve too.
Bad shit going down.
Buy tinned toms and dried pasta, AK47s and toilet roll.
(There is another recession coming)
Tanking to a position 25% up on their low point in December?
Buy a ticket to Biarritz
Hmm... That's a very arbitrary comparison point!
If you ignore that month, then we are bobbling around a low point that is below 2017.
If you want to talking about things tanking, you have to compare it to what tanking really means. It doesn’t mean 5% off its record high.
The FTSE 100 is currently knocking on the door of 7100 after posting the ath of 7700 just a few weeks ago. 3 weeks for the UK's key index to lose over 8% - this is against a backdrop of sterling assets being unprecedentedly cheap. If you are still tracking the 100 or 250 then you either have inside knowledge, the faith of Job or are just waiting and hoping.
It’s an 8% drop from peak though, not trend. 7132 as we stand looks... ok-ish. Not great, not a collapse or anything.
The FTSE 100 is really odd at the moment though because it is largely companies who trade heavily outside the U.K. and so their value is propped up by a weak pound, as you say, but also hit by US trade wars and so on. The 250 is a better sign of the U.K. itself and that has been suppressed for a while because of Brexit.
Both of these indices are pretty stable over the year though, or the last 12 months. They peaked last August and troughed last December but if you smooth that high and low it’s all fairly steady. Frankly, things going up and down across a 10% range doesn’t mean much.
On a related note. An old semi-db pension I have has sent out a really confusing and convoluted pamphlet about changes they are making. Basically they know they don't have enough money in the pot to meet their obligations a decade or two down the line, so they are automatically moving everyone from a default of a mix of equities, bonds and cash to a default "growth" option that is clearly far more risky. Of course they don't say that in a sentence, but spread across 10 pages of charts, graphs, detailed jargon blurb and glossy photos of happy (but surprisingly young) retired people polishing surfboards.
The problem with this approach is that it's only invalidated once the indexes have dropped over 10% - and then it's too late.
That APPL is still looking good. $1,400 now (accounting for the 7:1 split that happened in 2014).
FOREX-Dollar nudged off 3-week high, U.S. yields capped before Jackson Hole By Reuters
Since that “the markets are tanking” post of a week ago, they’re up by about 2.5% in the U.K. and 3.5% in the US, thus recovering the amount they lost that day. Basically, the FTSE has been pissing about at around this level (between 6700 and 7700, centring on 7200) ever since the beginning of 2017, most certainly stymied as a result of Brexit uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US is up about 30% in that time, in spite of the inevitable occasional downward jump along the way. But that’s just the prices — total return includes the dividend yields, which add 3% p.a. In the U.K. and 2% in the US.
I think this thread has a lot of reporting of the downward jumps but little follow-up to note these weren’t the start of a lasting trend. Anybody reading it would think returns over the last few years has been heavily negative. Meanwhile capital continues to concentrate wealth via corporate friendly policies, allowing companies to entrench their dominance over labour. Global corporations make bigger and bigger profits, with stock prices to match this. There may be downward blips as a result of systemic failures but it’s hard to see the long term trend being interrupted for too long each time.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Central Banks Can’t Save the World Economy: Jackson Hole Update
Central banks have trapped us on the conveyor belt to Communism - but disaster can be averted
It isn't the Central Banks though that don't fully get it. Had an automated text from LLoyds last Sunday telling me if I put money in that day would reduce my overdraft payment....But along with other high street banks, while they keep access to their ATM's open all weekend (in an increasingly cashless society) they automated paying in machines are locked away from access outside hours.
Saw the difference between command economies and capitalist ones in a compare and contrast between Philippines and Cuba - in a command economy stuff only happens when attention is paid to it. Capitalism allows for stuff to happen beyond to scope of the control freaks (all be it possibly within the black economy). Vulture capitalism, and the drive towards the cashless society may well have driven us towards communism. But its not going to get there (I think).
The Lloyds Bank in question has 4 ATM''s that are capable of being topped up during that weekend, That to me, indicates a demand for cash for purchases as likely as not stuck up peoples noses or down pubs on drinks that won't show on mortgage appraisals, yet the volumes of cash transacted in same said during week are so low that they no longer feel the need to protect their cashiers with the same sort of glass that currently prevents me from putting cash in out of hours. And I do need to pay cash in...(for reasons that are reasonable, and legal I might add,) -as do other people carrying out off book work for one reason or another.
Just to show how these short terms ups and downs shouldn't be overreacted to, here is the FTSE 100 now:
Although it is a tiny bit down on its average price over the last 6 months, it's nonetheless there or thereabouts. Note that investing on 15 August, however -- the day of the post I'm replying to -- would have seen you with a 3.8% return if you cashed out today.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 has regained everything it lost in its early August drop:
An investment on 15 August would have yielded a 7.4% if divested today.
No inside knowledge or the faith of Job. Just market volatility doing its thing. Fundamentally, these top 350 UK companies are still making plenty of money and announcing plenty of dividends. Markets always go through ups and downs but an 8% drop over a few weeks is not particularly significant in the grand scheme of things any more than is an 8% gain over a similar time period.
Big banks score win as U.S. regulator proposes easing post-crisis derivatives rules
September 17, 2019
Why is the Federal Reserve pouring money into the financial system? https :// www.ft.com/ content/345da16e-d967-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
An interesting thing happened this week. The overnight lending rate (the rates banks charge each other to lend each other cash) spiked on Monday and Tuesday. It seemed a lot of banks decided they didn't have enough cash on hand.
There’s a cash shortage on Wall Street — and it’s forcing the Fed to stem a surge in repo rates
'The men who plundered Europe': bankers on trial for siphoning €60bn
The CumEx-Files – How Europe's taxpayers have been swindled of €55 billion. A cross-border investigation | CORRECTIV
And how much return if you cashed out today?
0.8%, actually, for the FTSE 100.
That’s the market, eh? Ups and downs. Like I said before, I don’t think you can treat short term +\-5% as anything more than a blip.
a good day to bury shit:
Libor rigging inquiry shut down
everyone involved in this is as guilty as fuck. i have no sympathy for the traders, they knew exactly what they were doing but the senior directors had made it very clear about low balling and the impact to the reputation of the banks on the markets. a bullshit and bluster race to the bottom for all the big boys
No realistic prospect of conviction because the people involved are too well-connected is it?
Separate names with a comma.