Given the near-inevitability of a US strike on Iran...

[MikeMcc]

US exerts more pressure on N Korea over some slight or other and halts energy aid, upsetting China, blowing detante out of the water, cranking up pressure on the penninsula

NK starts to publicly develop more Nukes, as this tactic worked in the past & the dear leader is now presiding over a starving nation - news leaks out of street disorder in NK due to apalling conditions.China demands Taiwan be reclaimed as part of the PRC and begins Naval "manouevers" within sight of taiwan shores.USA responsd with talk of econmic sanctions against China.Japan begins to rearm in earnest.

near collapse, the dear leader launches a single tactical nuke strike on Seoul + a 500,000 NK troops overrun the border.US intervenes with massive non nuclear response & with their "puppetD ) South Korea Government forces, holding back the DPRK forces blitzkrieg.

China sends 1M troops and most of its Navy to back up the now struggling NK forces, and annxes taiwan with massive amphibious assault.US warns china not to advance into pennunsula and decides to destroy Pyongyang with small tactial nuke to halt momentum.

things get worse.

All well and 'good' except the Chinese don't have much of an amphibious capability and the Taiwanese would make it very, very costly for them.

 

[Yossarian]

But if i do think further, i'd say your bang on with regard to 911 thinking: most people i meet in life, from all over the world, believe elements of those in power in the US were complicit in the attacks.

And that is not so here on urban!!

Yeah, but a big proportion of those people must have been drinking a lot of Samsong whisky...

 

[MikeMcc]

5 steps to WW3:

1.) US and UK pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan after suffering the same as the Russians did.
2.) The Saudi regime toppling, then eventually Turkey, with the emergence of a new Caliph leading a grouping from North Africa to Pakistan.
3.) Nukes used in a war with India, massive cold war style defences built in Southern Europe.
4.) A big incident in the Med leading to a confrontation between Europe and the Caliphate. Russia and the US joining in on Europe's side and China staying on the side lines.
5.) China attacks Russia when they are overstretched to grab as much of Siberia as possible.

 

[Brainaddict]

I should add that I don't think the US will bomb Iran either. Not in the next six months anyway. This is partly because I think (possibly optimistically) they are finally getting a handle on the idea of 'blowback', and partly because they would get almost zero support for it from other countries and I'm not sure the american electorate is keen on the US going it alone any more.

 

[dylanredefined]

Dr strangelove sumerised set in 1950s cold war .American general orders
bombers to attack russia after going mad.
Pentagon tries to stop them fails tells russian where the bombers are .Unfortunatly one gets through .Triggering a russian doomesday device.
Only chance of survival is in a deep shelter such as a coal mine .Full scale nuclear war is initiated to give the Americian surviors a better chance .
Very funny movie you should watch it.

 

[zoltan]

All well and 'good' except the Chinese don't have much of an amphibious capability and the Taiwanese would make it very, very costly for them.

pah! a minor point in my carefully crafted armageddon scenario

 

[tuesday's child]

I don't think they have enough troops to attack the Isle of Man, let alone Iran, especially if the promised surge in Iraq goes ahead. The US military is stretched thin already, whatever they may say.

 

[nino_savatte]

There's not going to be a strike on Iran.

How odd of you to say this; didn't you post up some dodgy anti-Iranian propaganda in General a couple of weeks ago? You did.

 

[Andy the Don]

1) American air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
2) Iran responds by sending suicide boats to attack shipping in Straits of Hormuz.
3) A number of super tankers are sunken damaged. Flow of oil badly disrupted.
4) Oil prices surge as OPEC members raise price of oil. Western economies badly effected.
5) Further terrorist attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia force state of emergency in Saudi.
6) Meanwhile in Iraq quasi Iranian forces increase attacks on US/UK forces. Basra falls to Iranian agents.
7) Iranian agents attack attack Northern Israeli towns.
8) Israel invades Lebanon.
9) Further American air attacks on Iran.
10) Back to step 2...

 

[Bonfirelight]

1. Kid hacks into NORAD nuclear launch system
2. WOPR begins wargame
3. Tic Tac Toe fails to diffuse situation
4. Thermonuclear war.
5. Australia is 'WTF?!'

 

[Kaka Tim]

1) American air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
2) Iran responds by sending suicide boats to attack shipping in Straits of Hormuz.
3) A number of super tankers are sunken damaged. Flow of oil badly disrupted.
4) Oil prices surge as OPEC members raise price of oil. Western economies badly effected.
5) Further terrorist attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia force state of emergency in Saudi.
6) Meanwhile in Iraq quasi Iranian forces increase attacks on US/UK forces. Basra falls to Iranian agents.
7) Iranian agents attack attack Northern Israeli towns.
8) Israel invades Lebanon.
9) Further American air attacks on Iran.
10) Back to step 2...

Yeah thats the way I could see it panning out.

Swift military escalation between US, Iran and then Israel. Iraq meltdown. Syrai getting dragged in, Saudi going tits up. Global energy crises leading eventaully to western nations using every means at their disposable (like nukes) to secure control of the oil.

The fact that Bush dosn't have the politcal support for a full on war now doesn't mean its not going to happen. When they'res 5 hour cues for petrol, a glboal economic slump and jihadi attacks on western populations are happening on a weekly basis the uber-hawks will clear up in an 'us or them' existential struggle.

 

[likesfish]

china could possibly attack siberia but thats about it an amphib assualt on taiwan would make private ryan look like a teletubbie show
they send forces any where else outside of china there targets lacking carriers
or logistics
the US military may be making a hash of iraq but if the mission is destroy anybody else's conventional war capability they can have that done by supper time

 

[fela fan]

You must pick and choose the people you meet, because none of those I have talked to about it (not that many I admit, it's not a normal topic of converstaion) have though the CT idea to be a load of bull.

No i don't pick and choose! Thing is i live in a town where many tourists and travellers pass through, hence the multi-national make-up of the people i meet. The most likely people to say bollocks to american complicity are british. I'd say for americans it's about half and half.

For nearly every other nationality they all reckon the US had a hand in it...

 

[TAE]

But i wonder why it can be discussed flippantly? Careless talk often leads to unsavoury ends.

Despite the best efforts of Blair & co, the UK is still a free country - so we can be as flippant as we want, especially when it highlights the potential dangers of our (allies') current foreign policies.

 

[Loki]

Anyway, it's moved on. Iran, Syria and the USA are going to have a conference in Iraq next month.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6401895.stm

 

[Kaka Tim]

Anyway, it's moved on. Iran, Syria and the USA are going to have a conference in Iraq next month.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6401895.stm

Hmmm ... a chance for the US to climb down without too much loss of face?

Or a token geture towards diplomacy in order to build the case ('we tried to talk to them but they're still building nukes and arming terrorists')?

Any, sane, logical and rational administration acting on the basis of its own self interest would go for the former option ..... oh dear.

 

[TAE]

The US is willing to attend a regional conference in Iraq next month that will include representatives from Iran and Syria, the White House says.

Security nightmare!

That gives us the simple "someone bombs a regional conference in Iraq and kills representatives from Iran and Syria, and the White House" scenario.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

It's not a ministerial level conference as far as I recall, so nobody famous or important is going to be going. Just functionaries who don't matter too much.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

1. Kid hacks into NORAD nuclear launch system
2. WOPR begins wargame
3. Tic Tac Toe fails to diffuse situation
4. Thermonuclear war.
5. Australia is 'WTF?!'