Germany: Elections 2017

Discussion in 'world politics, current affairs and news' started by Idris2002, Aug 16, 2017.

  1. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    I don't the comparison really stands on any level: (1) The political system is different in the UK to Germany meaning coalitions are less common/accepted here, (2) I think it's highly unlikely that Labour would even try to form a coalition with three other parties, they'd be far more likely to try a govern as a minority government (as they said they would after 2017 if they had the chance), (3) besides both being scum I don't think the LDs are equivalent to the FDP, nor DL to the SNP.

    EDIT: If the FDP and Greens couldn't come to a agreement under a CDU-led coalition, why would they be able to under a SDP one? And how could DL form a coalition with the FDP when red-red-green coalitions have been hard to form and/or unstable?
     
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  2. Slo-mo

    Slo-mo Banned Banned

    Thanks. That makes it a bit clearer!

    I wasn't trying to make a direct comparison between SNP and DL btw. Just picking three parties out of thin air really.
     
  3. otzenpunk

    otzenpunk Well-Known Member

    Yes, kind of. The FDP is a radical free market party and campaigns heavily for privatization, small government and tax reductions for rich people, which is their main focus predominating classic liberal topics like civil rights. Die Linke on the other hand is a straight socialist party. There's just no base at all in terms of economic policy for these two parties to work together in any form.

    Apart from that, the relation between Die Linke and the Greens and SPD isn't without problems as well. This is partly based on historical reasons. While Die Linke is successor of the former Eastern German state party SED, both the western Greens and the SPD back in the days joined with parts of the civil rights movement of the disintegrating GDR. Then this former SED, renamed as PDS after the German reunion, joined with a movement of SPD renegades under the leadership of former SPD and later Die Linke chaiman Oskar Lafontaine, after Gerhard Schröder forced the SPD to a strict Blairist course, and they formed Die Linke. So there's a lot of personal hostilities ongoing especially between left-wing SPD members and those "traitors" who left them out in the rain.

    Also, Die Linke embraces some radical Anti-NATO, anti-western and communist activists, which is a reason for SPD and Greens to state, that they won't find common ground with Die Linke on foreign policy. At least, this was the main official reason why the SPD joined into the last "grand coalition" with the CDU, although they would have had a majority of seats together with Greens and Die Linke at the time.
     
  4. Slo-mo

    Slo-mo Banned Banned

    Thank you for that very clear explanation. Really does explain things better.
     
  5. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    SDP youth wing vote on grand coalition today.
    Because nothing says social democracy like pimping yourselves out to form a neo-liberal coalition.
     
    sealion likes this.
  6. mather

    mather Well-Known Member

    Like all the European social democratic parties, the SPD is on the way out as a serious political force and looks set to join the French 'Socialist' Party and PASOK in political irrelevancy. Hopefully the German Greens are also heading in the same direction.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
    Idris2002 likes this.
  7. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    Schultz get's over the line with 56%
     
  8. pocketscience

    pocketscience Well-Known Member

    Schulz really has put the final nail in the SPD coffin.
    They only got 20.5% in the last election so this probably leaves the rightwing AfD as the 2nd party in Germany now.
    Will be interesting to see where the 44% who defied the party line go now. Die Linke? form a new Momentum like party?
     
  9. Idris2002

    Idris2002 incels to the gulag

    For a lot of people, Die Linke will always be tainted by their roots in the GDR.

    So geht's die Sozialistische gang. . .
     
  10. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    What's really mad is that they are so chained to neo-liberalism that they can't even break with it to save themselves.
     
    gawkrodger, sealion and mather like this.
  11. mather

    mather Well-Known Member

    Which is why they deserve to lose support and become politically irrelevant, good riddance to them.
     
    sealion likes this.
  12. mather

    mather Well-Known Member

    Less so as time passes. The GDR is history whereas the crap neo-liberal politics of the SPD affect people and their job/living standards in the here and now and that is what is driving people away from the SPD. If Die Linke fails to benefit from this then it would be down to other factors related to todays politics rather than old history.
     
    NoXion likes this.
  13. pocketscience

    pocketscience Well-Known Member

    Its a double whammy for the AfD.
    Schulz has show himself to be so politically incompetent since taking over the SPD that a lot of observers are questioning how the fuck he managed to hold down his job in the Eu so long and advance to be president of the European Parliament.
    Hardy a ringing endorsement for the quality of representatives in Brussels.
    More fuel for euroscepticism in germany
     
    Idris2002 and mather like this.
  14. pocketscience

    pocketscience Well-Known Member

    I'm not so sure tbf. I wouldn't underestimate the distrust of Die Linke in the west just because of their associations with the DDR.
    They really struggle to get seats in western Länder outside of Lafountaines Saarbrücken (with the exception of one in Bremen I think).
    The swing of their vote is something like 20% in the East vs about 5% in the West.
     
  15. pocketscience

    pocketscience Well-Known Member

  16. pocketscience

    pocketscience Well-Known Member

    German politics are in total disarray.
    Within a week of handing the leaders post to his deputy so he could take up the foreign minister position, Schulz has now given up an that too - after the incumbent Sigmar Gabriel gave him a public bollocking for constantly going back on his word. So now he's left empty handed and completely out of the picture.
    I can't see him ever being able to show his face after the political ineptitude he's shown over the last couple of months. But then again, there's always Brussels I suppose.
    Opinion polls are showing that SPD voters want the grand coalition but I haven't seen any specific to the members who will actually be doing the voting.
    oh, and Merkel's also coming under fire from her own party for being associated with this shambles.
    If the SPD members vote against the grand coalition, I assume it's back to a general election.
     
  17. Mordi

    Mordi Amoral adventurist

    Any idea what the likely outcome would be in an another election? Does the AfD vote look stable?
     
  18. pocketscience

    pocketscience Well-Known Member

    The opinion polls (whatever they're worth now days) aren't showing any major changes for any party, from the results of the last election. So yes, they're at the very least stable.
    It will be interesting to see the outcome of the complete capitulation of Schultz within his own party over the last week.
    There could be a slight swing back to SPD or it could push more voters to AfD.
    The main polls are published on Sundays so there should be some clearer indicators by next weekend.
     
    Mordi likes this.
  19. butchersapron

    butchersapron blood on the walls

    Germany's far-right AfD overtakes Social Democrats in poll

    A poll published on behalf of German tabloid Bild has found that 16 percent of voters would choose the right-wing, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD), half-a-percent more than those who would vote for the Social Democrats (SPD).

    The figures released by the INSA polling institute show the SPD in free fall. Germany's oldest political party has seen its polling figures plummet even further since it garnered just 20.5 percent of the vote in September's federal election, its worst result in the post-war era.
     
  20. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    And SDP still thinking about going into coalition, madness.
     
  21. otzenpunk

    otzenpunk Well-Known Member

    While I certainly wouldn't suggest this poll is completely fake, the founder and CEO of this INSA institute is known to have good relations to the AfD, and his polling institute regularly shows the AfD at least one percent better than every other institute does. Should at least be taken with a grain of salt.
     
    Thimble Queen and pocketscience like this.
  22. pocketscience

    pocketscience Well-Known Member

    tbf there were similar warnings about INSA when their results showed the AFD overtaking the FDP to become the 3rd party before the elections last year..
    Not saying there are political interests behind Emnid or Forsa but judging by the trajectories in previous polls and the way the SDP are going about things, I find the results in this INSA poll comprehensible.
     
    mather likes this.
  23. otzenpunk

    otzenpunk Well-Known Member

    Well, every major polling institute saw the AfD higher than the FDP before the last federal elections. And that INSA did it first, doesn't mean that would also have been the case at this point in time. And if you not only look at the one last federal election, but at state elections as well, there are cases where INSA overestimated the AfD by comparably quite a lot. So yes, these numbers are not totally incomprehensible, certainly within the margin of error, but I personally give a shit on INSA numbers and wait on the upcoming results of Infratest Dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and the other ones, which shouldn't take too long.

    Apart from that, polls are also news, and they do influence people and may become self-fulfilling prophecies. And that may be part of some INSA agenda.
     
    pocketscience likes this.
  24. otzenpunk

    otzenpunk Well-Known Member

    JFTR: Current Infratest Dimap poll: SPD 17%, AfD 14%. SPD even up and AfD down 1% since last week. Of course, nobody's able to know which one does reflect reality better.

    Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl
     
  25. stethoscope

    stethoscope Well-Known Member

    Tomorrow we'll found out whether a coalition deal is going to happen...
    The young activists hoping to derail Germany's coalition deal

     
  26. stethoscope

    stethoscope Well-Known Member

  27. redsquirrel

    redsquirrel This Machine Kills Progressives

    Hah, slime hoping a few PR'd "fight" stunts help to distinguish them from the CDU, just like the LDs with the Tories. Hopefully they'll end up the same way as the yellow Tories.
     
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  28. DotCommunist

    DotCommunist my world is fire and blood

    this will accelerate the decline of germanies social democrat party and the likely winner out that in the longer term will be AfD- is that right?
     
  29. Jeremiah18.17

    Jeremiah18.17 Well-Known Member

    Italy is further down the road to where this might potentially lead. We will see in the next day or so just how disastrous and dangerous this trajectory is getting.
     
  30. otzenpunk

    otzenpunk Well-Known Member

    This is going around on Twitter at the moment. Pretty accurate overview over German political parties…

     
    Mordi and pocketscience like this.

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