Gambling for a living
- Thread starter gabi
- Start date
A zero sum game (such as poker) is your best bet.
Apart from a small rake to the house, your pitting yourself against other players.
I don't believe that other types really work out in the long run as the odds will slightly favour the bookies / casinos. For example, hitting your number on a Roulette wheel will pay out at 35:1, but the odds of you hitting it are 37:1.
The math doesn't make it worth while.
A Dashing Blade
Takes horses to water but can't make donkeys drink
What about laying on the exchanges?
From my brief look into it. I even bought a PDF of Ebay explaining it.
The theory didn't quite match what I saw. You had to risk too much of your capital, for my liking, to offer the punters decent odds. I didn't look into it in great depth though.
If you're talking about trading futures then it'll take you around two years trading full-time with a £25k initial stake + living money to learn how to do that successfully imo.
If you're still alive at the end of that period you should be making £50-150k pa
fractionMan
Custom Title
cool. I might try that 
this was my october and november from last year. December was an extra +4.5k (jan was -3.5k fwiw, then I gave up)
you've quit?
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Note the big loss in January (not graphed) - a bad streak like that takes a lot to get over.you've quit?
Having said that, I don't think he should quit either. He's winning $25/hour over a small sample - and probably $30+/hour over the whole series including the final big loss.
The graph covers NL50 through to NL400 with a fairly steady gradient across all levels (assuming that FM moved up limits with his bankroll in the standard logical fashion, which he did if he reads 2+2). So absolute profits don't appear to have gone up with $400 on the line compared to $50 (obviously, I don't know what proportion of hands were at the different limits). You expect winrate to go down as you move up but absolute profit should increase (or it's not worth moving up). The trick is to find the limit you can make the biggest hourly rate with.
NL400 is a whole different game from NL200, let alone 50 or 100. There are professionals making a living at NL100 (a good winrate would be $16/hour single tabling NL100 - playing 2-3 tables is fairly easy), so you don't need to play high stakes to make a living.
There's not enough data to know, but the relative lack of variance in that chart, especially early on (at lower limits) suggests that he is an excellent TAG who hasn't adjusted to the LAGgier game needed at higher limits.
I think he should go back to NL100 and feast on the fishies.
fractionMan
Custom Title
ymu has summed it up pretty well. I'm pretty taggy. Although I do like to lag it up now and again - you should see some more recent graphs, they're quite a bit more swingy In the end though, a decent TAG game makes the money at 200 and below, and with less stress too.
nl400 can be hard, but the real problem (for me at least) is that the swings are so much bigger. Being able to take a $2000 knock in a couple of days wasn't my cup of tea really. The psychological aspect, esp as related to money is much tougher than the game itself imo. If you let the results orientated thinking cloud your judgment then you're on a swift downward spiral, which is what it felt like was happening to me.
I really needed a break for other reasons too. Poker was starting to take over my life. I read poker forums, played poker, talked about poker and thought about poker whenever I was awake. I realised that wasn't what I wanted to do with my life and I'm happy with my decision to quit, for a while anyway.
I've started playing a few hands of nl200 the last week or so and I'm doing ok. nl200 gives me the best hourly rate of return - there's still enough fish around and when you stack them it's worth twice as much, although obviously I'd like to make enough to pay for a holiday once a year
I think I can keep it as a hobby rather than a obsession/money making venture now I've had time to appreciate a poker free life. As soon as it starts occupying my thoughts too much I'll quit again. Hopefully this won't happen.
In the end though, a decent TAG game makes the money at 200 and below, and with less stress too. nl400 can be hard, but the real problem (for me at least) is that the swings are so much bigger. Being able to take a $2000 knock in a couple of days wasn't my cup of tea really. The psychological aspect, esp as related to money is much tougher than the game itself imo. If you let the results orientated thinking cloud your judgment then you're on a swift downward spiral, which is what it felt like was happening to me.
I really needed a break for other reasons too. Poker was starting to take over my life. I read poker forums, played poker, talked about poker and thought about poker whenever I was awake. I realised that wasn't what I wanted to do with my life and I'm happy with my decision to quit, for a while anyway.
I've started playing a few hands of nl200 the last week or so and I'm doing ok. nl200 gives me the best hourly rate of return - there's still enough fish around and when you stack them it's worth twice as much, although obviously I'd like to make enough to pay for a holiday once a year
I think I can keep it as a hobby rather than a obsession/money making venture now I've had time to appreciate a poker free life. As soon as it starts occupying my thoughts too much I'll quit again. Hopefully this won't happen.
ymu
Niall Ferguson's deep-cover sock-puppet
Oh yeah. Cash can be gutting like that. Sounds like you got a little out of the comfort zone with the stakes too - always a killer.
I switched to single table tournaments for exactly this reason - you can only get stacked once per tournament and if you make the money you get 2-5 times your stake back. Cash and STTs are about as profitable as each other for a given bankroll, but I find it a lot easier to keep my emotions in check with STTs.
They're also great for TAGs who like to LAG it up once in a while (that's me too!). There is only one correct strategy for STTs - early on, ultra-TAG bordering on weak tight, and then once you're shortstacked you're pushing like a maniac. The 2+2 STT forum is brilliant - there aren't yet any good strategy books on STTs so if you go there you're well ahead of the opposition. If you like to study, you'll rule at STTs. The fish like them more than cash too.
hammerntongues
Well-Known Member
<Checks to see did inhaler post his bets before boasting of his win>
NOPE!
he never does , we have been through this all before , like most gamblers he is a deluded soul or is on a wind up , either way whenever he spouts on about his gambling prowess it is best to ignore him.
hammerntongues
Well-Known Member
I liked that film, especially Edward G. Robinson's classic line; "You pay to watch. Lessons is extra".
Out of interest, what were the plot flaws though?
sorry not really a plot flaw exactly but a stretching of belief , the odds for those two hands to appear at the same time are approx 50,000,000 to 1 according to the experts . Having said that we all know that if it is physically possible for something to happen in any game of chance , eventually it will.
I love the ending where he loses the coin against the wall with the shoeshine boy " you just aint ready for me yet Cincinnati " .
hammerntongues
Well-Known Member
find flaws in the existing system to exploit may be possible but using Betfair you take on the role of the book so is this gambling or are you laying ?
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