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Fuel Protests To Return?

catch said:
What needs to happen in the short term is massive increases in local food production, and the replacement of the commuter lifestyle with people living and working locally.
I understand what you are saying and agree in a UK context.

However, the UK is only 1% of the world's population, so the really important "what needs to happen" question really needs to be addressed at the global level.

Maybe an easier way to conceptualise this is to look at China and India which between them have maybe 30 - 40% of the world's population and also have the whole range of rich/poor and urban/rural within them.

If you can come up with a viable and acceptable strategy for these two countries it would probably also answer a lot of other questions - showing a route for both wealthy and poor countries alike.

Having said this, I do accept that a wealthy country like the UK should be aiming to have exemplary energy-efficient and clean technology, and should be aiming to pioneer spatial planning, demand management and 'joined-up' thinking (applying energy analysis to *all* areas of policy). The UK/EU should also require corporations to follow best practise as part of their 'license to operate' in UK/EU markets - both domestic and financial (eg London capital markets/stock exchange - and therefore globally)).
 
catch said:
I'm anti-car to a large extent, but me and my wife own one :rolleyes:
I actually think that putting all the emphasis on personal 'lifestyle' choices is a mistake.

While I do understand that people want to 'do their bit' to save the environment, it is worth pointing out that big business and big government is very happy to offload all the burden (and guilt) onto 'consumers'. They can then make people feel like they can't complain unless they buy the premium priced 'green' products, spend their own time sorting out recycables and carting them to recycling banks, tell them to drive less but keep public transport prices some of the highest in the world and so forth.

While some people find a green lifestyle is empowering because they find they can break away from consumerism and they actually end up saving money - many others will find that they struggle to access 'green' products and find that they are being asked to take on extra burdens that should really be taken on by companies (eg who generate excess packaging) and government (who don't collect all recyclables). They are also being asked to make almost impossible decisions - told to encourage their kids to cycle more yet not given any traffic claming or cycle lanes so it is safe enough to do so, in fact facing increased traffic due to local planning decisions. They may well be told to 'shop locally' only to be faced with the local council approving new out of town supermarkets selling a massive range of goods which put whole ranges of local shops out of business - shops which are often replaced by fast food outlets and restaurants.

By focussing on people as "consumers" (green or otherwise) rather than "citizens" it disempowers them and channels them away from demanding changes in government and in the marketplace. They are expected to 'buy' their way green, and to take on the full burden of living a green lifestyle - despite the fact that as isolated individuals they are at the mercy of well coordinated and massively financed business interests and highly entrenched and unaccountable government bureaucracies which largely exist to service business and themselves (I am speaking here of the organisations and structures themselves regardless of the good intentions of the individuals who work for them - I know that there are many good and well intentioned people who work for local government and the public sector).

I would argue that rather than feel guilty about car owning - and therefore maybe feeling unable to speak out about green transport - people should reject this 'person as consumer' model and adopt instead a 'person as citizen' approach. In this it doesn't matter that you don't cycle everywhere or own a car - the fact is that people as citizens have an absolute right to hold companies and government to account for what they are doing, and demand the large structural changes that will really make a difference.

To use a parallel example: Imagine the UK pre-NHS - It would really be pointless tell people that "they really should try harder to be healthy". Maybe they could make an incremental difference through indivudual actions, lifestyle, diet and hygiene etc - but the big difference comes when you actually set up a National Health Service. Additionally big differences come when you outlaw unsafe work practises, toxic pollution, unsafe housing, dangerous products and all the other ways that the unchecked market would otherwise endager people's health. These changes came through political action, not through making people feel guilty about their own lifestyles.

Yes there is a place for pioneers of a 'green lifestyle' (the room I am sitting in has a solar panel on the roof helping heat the water, which means that this summer there has been no need to switch on the gas boiler) but we really need to avoid disempowering "people as citizens" and avoid buying into the "people as consumers" model that companies would prefer to see.
 
TeeJay said:
I don't think it is actually the scarcity of oil in the ground that has pushed up the prices this year. I think it is increased demand - for example from China - coupled with an insufficent increase in production (ie the volume being pumped out of the ground). There are in fact still vast known reserves in the ground but it does take a few years to put in the required infrastructure (rigs, pipelines, refining capacity etc) to pump it out, and also OPEC and other producers don't simply pump at their maximum possible rates. Another issue is that some countries (eg Indonesia & India) actually subsidise fuel for their domestic markets.

I will see if I can find some links from The Economist that say all this as I am actually posting all this from memory and might have got half of it wrong. ;)

Increased demand = increased scarcity :p

And actually, OPEC countries pump out pretty near to maximum capacity. The thing about oil is, you can stick it in a drum and it's still good to use later.

This doesn't apply to bananas which is why the banana cartel that tried to form on the basis of OPEC failed.
 
the B said:
Err, well, it is working. Oil is becoming more scarce so the price is rising to ration the use of it.

Oil has only gone up in cost , because the refinary at new orlens is knocked out .The price rises are doing little to ration it use, it just means the tax burdon is shifted, because most people using oil, have little choice.

Right something senseable , not knee jerk shit, your an idiot.
 
james_walsh said:
Oil has only gone up in cost , because the refinary at new orlens is knocked out .The price rises are doing little to ration it use, it just means the tax burdon is shifted, because most people using oil, have little choice.

Right something senseable , not knee jerk shit, your an idiot.
I think the problem is a little more complex than that. Global demand for oil goes up at about 1.4% per annum. Production figures demonstrate that several oil producing countries, the US back in the seventies, the UK just recently, have peaked and produce less oil each year. Many of the very largest producers have not shown a drop in production, but have been unable to increase it.

Most prominently, Saudi Arabia have been promising to increase production ever since prices started going up shortly after the invasion of Iraq. So far I haven't seen any credible evidence that they've succeeded in doing so.

It may well be that the current rises do directly result from Katrina, that would make perfect sense. It doesn't mean that the overall trend is the result of Katrina. That would be strange as this trend has been growing for a couple of years now.

It does not necessarily mean we are experiencing a global production peak yet, it may just be that the investment required to expand production has been slow in coming. It is certainly arguable on the basis of fact though.
 
james_walsh said:
Oil has only gone up in cost , because the refinary at new orlens is knocked out .The price rises are doing little to ration it use, it just means the tax burdon is shifted, because most people using oil, have little choice.

Right something senseable , not knee jerk shit, your an idiot.

So the increase in oil price for the last 18 odd months was due Gulf of Mexico production being chopped?

I think someone is the idiot here :p

And prices increases do ration use.

How about if oil cost $30 million a barrel? That would ration use!

What are you, 7?
 
f.y.i:

1999 = $10/barrel
recently = $60/barrel
now (ie post katrina) = $70/barrel

These are all *crude* oil prices, but the current bottleneck is in *refining* capacity, a pre-existing situation, but made worse as the US has just lost eight refineries (c.10% of its capacity). While it does keep strategic stocks of *crude* oil it doesn't keep any of petrol or other refined products. This is currently the biggest problem and is having the biggest impact at the petrol pump. As there is also a global market in petrol this also impacts on petrol prices globally, although not in a straighforward way as most countries have their own refining capacity, and it is more normal to move crude oil around the world, then import and refine it as needed for sale to the domestic market.

The US demand for petrol is fairly inelastic in the short term. One economist - Philip Verleger (IIE) - even suggests that a doubling of petrol prices would only reduce consumption by 5% (although there is a lot of disagreement about this).

source for all this: "Katrina and oil prices" Economist Sep 8th 2005 http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=4377398
(unfortunately its subscription only - sorry :( )
 
james_walsh said:
Arsehole

I don`t say there was no public transport. Just that its shit. You try getting a bus with 2 young kids , that you have to wait for ages for , doesn`t go from within half a mile off your home, and doesn`t really go to wear you want it to go too. Next to no service after 9pm , fuck all service on a sunday. Train to london(25miles) 14pounds. No bus service to my daughters school , about a mile away.

Whats your name two jags! get in the real world. The reason most people have cars, is that they need them, to have ok lives.

Spot on.

Bile needs to be directed at speculators making fortunes out of the oil markets.

Why no price freeze?
 
Bob_the_lost said:
Does anyone remember how high the prices were to spark off the first fuel protest, i'm sure we're pushing or surpassing them now.

*lets urban do his googling for him*

at a tangent I know, but Rupe summed up the neo-cons wet dreams so well.

"Rupert Murdoch praised President Bush's war efforts in the Australian magazine Bulletin: "Bush is acting very morally, very correctly. The greatest thing to come out of this for the world economy, if you could put it that way, would be a $20 barrel of oil. That's bigger than any tax cut in any country.""

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1295/is_6_67/ai_102750164

Fuckwit.

then and now.
 
MC5 said:
Why no price freeze?
How exactly do you go about "feezing" a global commodity market?

The best you an do is subsidise the price the public pay and make up the difference from tax money - which means they collectively end up paying the full price anyway, just via a longer route.

You might be able to freeze prices if you actually have state owned oil wells, but again the public is still the one who is collectively paying (or not getting the revenue at any rate).
 
TeeJay said:
How exactly do you go about "feezing" a global commodity market?

The best you an do is subsidise the price the public pay and make up the difference from tax money - which means they collectively end up paying the full price anyway, just via a longer route.

You might be able to freeze prices if you actually have state owned oil wells, but again the public is still the one who is collectively paying (or not getting the revenue at any rate).

A very small part of the price at the pump, has anything to do with cost. over 80% is tax. Dead easy for the government to freeze the price(within a few pence anyhow). But they rather have the wind fall, for now.
 
Blimey, thats strong isn't it? i met Mark on one or two occasions and i thought he was a really nice guy. Maybe his eco journey around the world means he has seen things we haven't which point to eco-disaster, maybe.....

None of these measures can or will be implemented by environmentalists - they need committed support from the government. It won't be greens in knitted jumpers breaking up the truckers' blockades, it'll be the police, just as Margaret Thatcher used the power of the state to break the miners. Despite the march of globalisation, the state remains a powerful force. It just needs to be put to the right ends. Tough decisions need not always be bad ones.
 
James_Walsh said:
Arsehole

I don`t say there was no public transport. Just that its shit. You try getting a bus with 2 young kids , that you have to wait for ages for , doesn`t go from within half a mile off your home, and doesn`t really go to wear you want it to go too. Next to no service after 9pm , fuck all service on a sunday. Train to london(25miles) 14pounds. No bus service to my daughters school , about a mile away.

MC5 said:


Of course apart from the fact that James_Walsh was talking utter bollocks of course.
 
Isambard said:
Of course apart from the fact that James_Walsh was talking utter bollocks of course.

The transport service he describes is similar to here. Now that's bollocks.
 
Isambard said:
You have no local public transport?
Right!

Tell us here or PM me (I'll not tell it) the first bit of your postcode and I'll put my anorak on and go away for a little search shall I? :D
ok then: IP14


Before you spend too long searching, this gives an idea of how crap the services are:

Currently, 20% of rural parishes have no bus service, and a further 14% have less than a daily provision. Even these figures, however, mask the true provision and accessibility of bus services. Where there is a main road passing through a parish, and the bus route follows that road, then the absence of a bus route to a community situated off the thoroughfare will be hidden. In addition, the bus may not be serving the preferred destination and residents without their own means of transport are therefore forced to shop or work in the larger urban areas rather than having the choice of more local market towns. As a result, they are denied the social cohesion of meeting with friends, and smaller local businesses lose their local customers.
http://www.suffolkacre.org.uk/ruraltransport_intro.php

People are trying various ways to improve services, but more money is needed, and much greater support from both local and central government. This shows what happens when the money isn't there to back efforts up:

"The service was designed to appeal particularly to those living within three or four miles of the route, providing a healthier way to travel for those who would not normally consider cycling all the way to work. It also provided access to jobs for those living in rural areas who do not have a car.

The Buscycle did prove to be a great success, with 15% of passengers having transferred from using their car & 30% saying that they had a car available for their journey but they chose not to use it. Unfortunately in increasing the timetable & extending the service through to Diss, Suffolk County Council also decided it was no longer feasible to continue the cycle facility."

So the above worked, mates of mine used it and it was handy as hell apparently, but the council decided to stop funding it. Bastards.
 
Isambard said:
Of course apart from the fact that James_Walsh was talking utter bollocks of course.

yeah, your a cunt. Your just another authoritarian idiot. all you manages to do, is justify the government taxing the workers more. Your nothing but a licksptital.As every with your sort, its the poor that get the blame. Next your be telling us, that we should be grateful that where not starving like people in the third world.
 
catch said:
What needs to happen in the short term is massive increases in local food production...
Things like this seem quite positive:

[East Anglian Food Link]EAFL works towards a more sustainable and localised food system, across the East of England, building links between members of food communities and across issues of sustainability in food.

Food is not simply a consumer issue, but involves communities of participants in the food supply chain, from farmers to consumers. Food cuts across many issues, from economics, society and the environment to health, education and culture.

http://www.eafl.org.uk/

And on a more direct, potentially self-organised, level:

[The aim is] To establish, in a series of phases and stages, an area which will be used as a prototype and training centre to promote labour-friendly, self-sufficient, environmentally-sustainable, bioregional autonomous spaces to meet the basics needs of the immediate community, to sell surplus foodstuffs and craftwork on-site and promote bioregional eco-activity.

http://www.tlio.org.uk/ripple.html
 
Originally Posted by james_walsh
Oil has only gone up in cost , because the refinary at new orlens is knocked out .The price rises are doing little to ration it use, it just means the tax burdon is shifted, because most people using oil, have little choice.

Right something senseable , not knee jerk shit, your an idiot.
the B said:
So the increase in oil price for the last 18 odd months was due Gulf of Mexico production being chopped?

I think someone is the idiot here :p

And prices increases do ration use.

How about if oil cost $30 million a barrel? That would ration use!

What are you, 7?
Why the need to exaggerate and misrepresent what he's saying?

Prices might ration use in the ridiculous example you offer, but that's not what has actually been happening. In practical terms, despite constantly rising fuel prices over the last decade, vehicle use has increased massively - to 30 million on the road this year.

As it is current high prices are causing big problems, and certainly don't help rural isolation (an issue for many, especially among the elderly population here in my area) - the poorest already have the least mobility and this is not helped by high fuel prices.

There's also the problem that increased petrol costs leave rural people poorer in other areas instead. People (unwilling to submit to the isolating effects of a dormitory village) still use their cars - they go without other things instead though - a few pints less down the pub, or the kid not getting a new pair of football boots, or no more sky TV... or no more local food from the farm shop, but Tesco's cos it's cheaper).
 
Is the price elasticity of demand (the responsiveness to the quantity of a good demanded to a change in the price of a good) for oil perfectly inelastic (does not change no matter what the change in price)?

No.

You can bang on about rural isolation all you like though. Fact of the matter is, some services, some things about rural life will be more expensive and artifically pushing down the price of a scarce good that is expensive in terms of it social effect is not a long term solution in the slightest.
 
the B said:
Is the price elasticity of demand (the responsiveness to the quantity of a good demanded to a change in the price of a good) for oil perfectly inelastic (does not change no matter what the change in price)?

No.
Well that's pretty bloody obvious, which was why I questionned you attributing the 'no matter what' (!), the 'All one thing or the other' view to me. Nothing is as absolute as you're trying to suggest.

If you want to (can only?) continue to think and talk in the abstract then that's up to you. It doesn't paint much of a picture of what is actually going on though; doesn't explain that the price of oil and the amounts of it that people purchase is dependant on a host of influences, not just price (as you're implying).

You can bang on about rural isolation all you like though. Fact of the matter is, some services, some things about rural life will be more expensive and artifically pushing down the price of a scarce good that is expensive in terms of it social effect is not a long term solution in the slightest.
Cheers. Nice to know you couldn't give a fuck. Don't live in London do you?
 
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