The problem with oil isn't so much supply as demand. I'm not convinced that the last or current price spikes represent 'peak oil' because, although few seriously dispute that oil's finite and there will be a supply peak at some point, whether we're at or near it now is a matter of debate. But in some ways it doesn't matter much, because what's not in dispute is that demand for oil, especially from fast-developing economies like China and India, is outstripping supply and will continue to do so. That's principally why the underlying price trend is upwards, and there's no reason to think that it won't continue - although in the short run prices might drop again for a while once shelved supply projects are reactivated.
Long term, you're probably correct. But stats show that demand for fuel hasn't risen as quickly as a lot of people predicted, and in the short run, during the current economic crisis, demand has actually fallen, especially (but not only) in wealthy western countries like the US and UK.
About a month or so ago, pump prices started to climb pretty drastically here in the US, so i went online and did some reading to try and find out the reason for this particular short-term increase. I suspected that it might be due to usual rising demand in the US associated with the beginning of the summer driving and holiday season.
But, according to the reports i found, the demand for fuel was still static or even declining. The analysts suggested that the rising price of oil was actually a result of increased speculation by investment companies, hedging prices. They said that these investors were confident in the long-term need for oil, and were investing accordingly, but that in the short term it was actually their speculative investments that were driving prices up.
Prices seem to have peaked here, for the moment at least. A gallon (3.8 litres) of gas here in California (about the most expensive place in the country for fuel) costs about $2.95 to $3.05 right now, and that price has been steady for a few weeks now, after 6-8 weeks of constantly climbing prices.
According to
this page (scroll all the way to the bottom) the spot price for Cushing crude, which was hovering around $70-71 a barrel for most of June, has dropped to $62.88 over the last week. In my experience, the price at the pumps here in the US follows the price of crude reasonably closely, so i'm expecting to see a drop of 10c or more pretty soon.
Obviously, fuel is extremely cheap over here compared to what you lot in the UK have to pay. At the current exchange rate, petrol is costing us just under 50p per litre. And, as i said, California is about the most expensive place in the country; in parts of the south and midwest, it's much cheaper. In Oklahoma, the heart of the country's oil industry, gas is currently selling for under $2.23 per gallon. Here's a
map of pump prices in the US.