The SWP never claimed 18000 members.
No but it has falsely claimed at various points 10,000 then 8,000 and now 6,800 or whatever. It might as well be 18,000 or 180,000 for all that such figures represent. Cliffite was the unfortunate true believer who solemnly informed us all that the SWP had 18,000 members.
Groucho said:
Yes, I think there were more than 100 obviously visible SWP members on the march in question. Yes, I think the visible members selling the paper, on the stalls etc were significantly less than half of the members on the march.
"Significantly less" is meaninglessly vague. Are you saying between a third and a half (which I would find credible) or between a tenth or a twentieth (which only the kind of people who also believe in invisible guardian angels would find credible)?
Groucho said:
BTW there were 1,000s of SWP placards on the march but some of these are carried by non-members
We are both aware that given money and printing and facilities, it only takes a couple of dozen people to hand out huge numbers of placards to non-members. Given that nobody is disputing that the SWP can muster a few bob and a few dozen members, I'm not sure why you are throwing this in.
Groucho said:
In terms of estimating SWP membership levels you need to take into account the level of activity and organisational structure that the party maintains.
I take exactly that into account. The Irish SP is a much smaller organisation than the British SWP or the British SP. Yet we have two reasonably large party offices, a bundle of full time organisers, a paper, a magazine and a larger website than the British SWP. Our small organisation also carries a burden of mass work which I suspect would make members of any British socialist organisation blink - forming the core of the anti-water charges movement in the North, leading many of the most significant strikes and industrial action and so on. Yet we do this with an activist membership in the low hundreds.
To give a much more extreme example, the WRP maintained a huge full time apparatus, a daily newspaper, a network of "training" colleges, bookshops, various offices and endless party front organisations. And when the split came it became apparent that they had perhaps 1,500 members. There would be nothing at all remarkable about an organisation of 2,000 or less activists maintaining the activity levels and apparatus of the current SWP, even assuming that they aren't WRP style crazies. Of the "united front" and front organisations you list, few of these require any really significant investment of time or resources - they are wheeled in and out as they become useful and do not require hundreds of activists devoting their primary attention to them week in and week out and, what's more, they mostly also involve some other punters who can shoulder necessary work.
The Stop the War Coalition was the only exception in that it certainly did need a huge amount of effort when it was at or near its peak (much less now of course) and the stretch of doing that seriously damaged the SWP's own internal functioning. A useful point of comparison would the anti-bin tax campaign in Dublin, which the SP formed the core of, and which at one point was organising dozens of mass direct actions a day for weeks on end, while simultaneously organising the leafleting of hundreds of thousands of homes, postering, mass meetings and so on. This was a more extreme sustained burst of activity than anything the anti-war movement managed in either Britain or Ireland and its core was a much, much smaller organisation.