Discussion in 'football' started by Lazy Llama, Jul 12, 2017.
Gets dick all in the double game week, but bags a brace in the Cup.
Kane's trolling FF managers
I have no objections to him finding form again before the next gameweek
Kane's season so far:
So with my amazing powers of spotting patterns, I predict a score no bigger than 6 for his next outing
He's still the highest scoring forward in the game, with only three midfielders with a higher tally.
Not the be-all and end-all, but counts for summat.
Sure, it's not to be sniffed at, and I'm not trying to talk anyone out of having him...I think it's great that everyone else thinks they need the most expensive player in the game. It might come back to haunt me, but I reckon not having him will make a big difference for me - as long as I get the rest of my team right with the extra cash!
It's easier, and probably more guaranteed, to spend the extra money on Kane. Yes you probably could get more points by using the extra money elsewhere. But it relies on you choosing the right players, ie more than one, and switching them at the right time.
The chances of doing this are quite low. It's much simpler, and therefore less of a gamble / more rewarding to stick with one player who will score a lot over the season, ie 'Arry.
I'm waiting to see if a few relatively mild (hopefully) injuries clear up. Under some possible scenarios I will need to replace a forward, and even with plenty of money I'm not finding the options too exciting.
I wonder how much of an impact Coutinho's depature will have on Salah and co. I'm reluctant to go 'gun ho' with the transfers until the window closes.
Another thing, Doe's anyone follow the Scouts tips on players to get in ? I don't because they come across as very bad gamblers with little or no evidence that a player will do the bizz. It's all if' ,buts and maybe's based on previous stats.
Here's an example...
Dunk can also be a factor in the opposition penalty area.
Together with central defensive partner Shane Duffy (£4.6m), the pair have recorded 30 attempts from corner kicks.
And yet Chris Hughton’s side are one of only two teams, along with Burnley, not to have scored direct from a corner.
But with two big chances (defined as an opportunity that the receiving player is expected to score) from his last four appearances, Dunk’s first Premier League goal appears imminent.
Depends if you take xG to be a meaningful stat.
I'm unsure, tbh.
Top players outperform xG as it's an average rating - as in the average player would score a goal from that position. So when Kane was shit in August but he was (and still is) having more shots than anyone else and hitting the post etc, I saw loads of people reference his xG as the reason why they were keeping him. "He has to revert to mean" was a common phrase. No one would entertain the fact that he was shit...he was just "unlucky". I didn't watch any of Tottenham's games in August so I don't know either way. Just saying, that people seemingly believe in xG now, over all else.
And I know I've criticised Kane a bit recently, so please don't take this as another one of those posts, it's just an example. You could say the same about a team. Maybe Southampton have an xG of 40 for the reason but only have 25 goals (made up figures here). You could say they're under-performing and will revert to mean soon. But I don't know why you can't just say they're shit? If an average player would've put away 40 goals and a player/team/whatever didn't match them, then they're shit, not unlucky. They're below average by the definition of xG.
xG/xA etc, should bee seen for what they are, I reckon - a measure of performance in the previous game(s), not an objective measure of a player's worth or quality that can be used to make predictions.
Also, Salah will be fine without Coutinho. It's Firminho I'm worried about.
Cout was out in:
GW1-4. Salah got 11, 1, 11, 1.
GW10-11. Salah got 4, 15.
GW14. Salah got 13.
Conclusion: Salah scores when he wants.
Looking at Firminho:
GW1-4: 12, 2, 12, 2
GW10-11: 8, 2
So, not too shabby the first bout of absence, but definitely lacking the others. Especially when Liverpool won 2-0 and 3-0 and he was playing up front and only scored one goal out of 5.
The other was a 0-0
I was wondering if Mane will start firing again. I am also aware of Firminho but will stick with him due to there upcoming fixtures. He seems to score heavy against the weaker teams away from Anfield. Also as stated the strikers are hardly pulling up trees, so not much to choose from. That's my theory anyway
I'm keeping him for now, too. Have a few more important transfers to make over the next few weeks, and he's in form, fit and cheap - no reason to get rid yet. But I'm keeping an eye on him...
Another example of the scout plucking at straws in tipping Jordan Ibe ( Bournemouth) to produce. They have Arsenal . West ham and Chelsea upcoming. He has only scored 5 or more once this season and has a poor return against teams down the bottom.
They're just randoms, not experts. It's like fucking 'Lawro' on the BBC - haven't got a fucking clue. Get whooped every week in the predictions competition by rappers and room makeover TV presenters.
Just ignore them
I pay little attention to his predictions, but I have enjoyed them tracking his cumulative success against the celebs and the general public. Hard data that the man has no fucking clue in predicting scores
I read a lot of them, mostly to see some of what might be influencing some other peoples choices, and to make sure I havent missed anything tasty, and on odd occasion they have interesting stats.
However, I ignore them rather a lot. Especially when they have set themselves a mission that is hard to achieve, such as recently recommending a whole bunch of forwards for people to use their wildcard on. I also suspect they have to liven things up a little bit at times - most of the players who are performing at the moment are obvious, which doesnt make for interesting articles so they feel the need to venture out on a limb. In too many of their recent articles they've had to overlook recent form to find some recommendations and I dont buy those tips. Form usually trumps all else for me, including fixtures most of the time but I do find it hard to resist doing just a bit too much fixture-based tinkering.
Take this week - I've got Vardy as well as Mahrez, and they are against Chelsea. Vardy isnt showing as injured anymore, but I still dont really feel like having two Leicester players this week. But I am really still not inspired by my choice of forwards, especially as Salah is temporarily out of my team and really expensive options like Aguero will leave me a bit short of cash to bring Salah back in when I deem the moment is right. If I go for Firmino then I have enough money left for Salah when required, most other options involve me bringing in a forward for possibly one week only. And as I already used my free transfer this is going to cost me 4 points, increasing the chance that it will be a waste if I go for a 'one week only' choice of forward. But I dont really want Firmino right now either. Bah, I usually enjoy my transfers quite a lot but this week I'm not enjoying the dilemma at all. Most of what I saw from cup games this week just put me off a bunch of other options, only certain news tomorrow is left that could possibly help my dilemma.
I'm even more clueless than usual as to who to captain this week as well. Kane isnt supposed to be my 'if in doubt, choose him' option at the moment but I'm lacking Salah and imagination so might just have to go that way by default.
I saw a pretty in depth study on whether form (or any other metric) could be used to predict success in FF. The conclusion was that form and fixtures were the only thing that had anything like a correlation. So an inform player against a shit team, is a very good bet. No shit sherlock. But even against an average team, it counts for nothing. And neither did anything else they tested for.
You took Salah out?!
I have never followed there advice. As i said they are gamblers, the same sort of fuckers that work for bookies giving out shit tips.
Only because he was injured and I was confident that I was accurately predicting he would not play at all that week, and most people would try to play him anyway, and it was the mini double gameweek and I was using my wildcard. It was actually quite a cunning plan that worked, but it was partially undermined by the fact that as part of the same plan I got rid of Firmino but replaced him with Vardy who ended up not playing either. And so far Salah failed to drop even 0.1 in price so I lost out to the max on the financial side of things too. But since I already went through this, I decided to let the implications of this plan play out for one more week by not getting Salah back straight away.
Yeah, taking him out because he was injured - fair enough. But the financial side is what shocked me. I imagine you got him in at a much lower price than what he is now, so even taking him out for one week isn't worth it when you take into account the cost hit. I'd have stuck with him for another week or two I reckon! Would be difficult to justify more than that, though, as he'd probably drop a few 0.1s.
A big part of why I did it was that I was greedy for Tottenham midfielders that week, and in general midfield slots are coveted so far this season. And I'm also playing in a small league where there were limited differentials with the 3 people I was fighting with, I wanted to do something different.
Yes I lost lots of money. I bought and sold Salah a number of times earlier in the season, and the last time I bought him he was worth 9.1, I sold him for 9.6 and he was, and still is, worth 10.1. Because I was making a bunch of other moves that week with my wildcard, I think I lost 1 or 1.1 million off my overall team value in total, but I have already recovered to where I was. And this isnt too devastating for me because I'm usually at the somewhat higher end of team values by virtue of keeping an eye on that side of things and being quite transfer-happy. I've actually got notably far less money at this point in the season than I had the previous two years, but this is partly because some of the price change rules seem to have evolved this year, partly the luck of how players turned out, partly me restraining my transfers at some points this season. Anyway my team+bank is still worth about 106 million right now so I'm not complaining.
I'd like to report back on the fantasy 'draft' mode that they tried offering this year.
I really quite liked the concept and most of the implementation. It's not possible to really judge how fun it is because there were problems getting enough people to play with. Got there in the end in ways I wont bore on about but then come draft day a fair proportion of people didnt turn up to make their picks and had teams that were picked for them based on a list of preferences they may or may not have put any effort into creating before draft day. And then, to top it off, I've seen very little evidence that hardly anyone who did turn up and paid attention in the early weeks actually stuck with it. And this makes a big difference to how I play the season in the 2 leagues I am in, because players compete to transfer in available players throughout the season and with nobody else bothering there is nobody to challenge my transfer requests. So I can keep shifting around fairly large chunks of my teams to include players that have shown recent form but werent chosen by many at the start of the season.
My own personal conclusion: I would love to play it again next year but its hard to get the intended experience out of it when so many others didnt play it properly for very long. I can understand the various reasons why people didnt though, plus time is a resource I have in ample supply at this moment in my life for a start.
I love the idea of a draft league, but I think it's one or the other. It's hard enough sorting your 'main' team out without draft taking up time as well.
If it went draft only, I'd be all for it. Of course they can't do that because how would you judge the overall winner.
Sadly, I feel this mode might not last long.
Taken a real punt/waste of a transfer by swapping Rooney out for Everton new boy Cenk Tosun, simply because I like his attitude* in the two videos I've just watched of him
So basically Rooney is guaranteed to score today!
*He looks to be an excellent finisher, dodgy passer, hard worker, falls over easier than he should for quite a big lad, deceptively quick - very much a Poundland Kane, or that's what I'm hoping anyway
Thats one of my few remaining uses for my 'draft' teams - if there is a player I'm tempted to gamble on, I can stick them in one of my draft teams to see how they get on there, without having to waste points etc in the main fantasy games. One of my draft teams is so iffy because I didnt manage to pick any of the real quality forwards in the initial draft, that I present have both Rooney and Tosun in that team! I've got so little choice of forwards for that team that I even tried sticking Ibrahimovic in there for a month or so but that obviously failed to yield results.
Since I had no sensible clue what to do with my forward transfer, I ended up doing a 'for one week only, fixture based' transfer. Lukaku.
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