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Extreme Weather Watch

Perhaps more interesting, for us, is where it could end up in about 10 days' time… (for the start of the bank holiday weekend).
GEFS Ensemble (12z13Aug2024), AL05 Ernesto forecast tracks. ECMWF Ensemble (12z13Aug2024), AL05 Ernesto forecast tracks.
ECENS Ensemble (12z13Aug2024), AL05 Ernesto forecast tracks.
Note: prior to arrival it could promote another warming episode.
 
Though that's just one estimate. The ensembles provide a better idea of spread: still all to play for, N, S, direct hit or could just stall out to the W of us.​

Separately, Canadian wildfire smoke has arrived (hence the slightly hazy appearance at altitude and some temperatures in E/SE parts a degree or two down on forecasts of 24-48+ hours ago):
Those are some excellent graphics. Well done . Thank you
 
When will we feel this? Baton down the hatches?
Could rock up in our neck of the woods around Thursday/Friday. Outcome could be anywhere from a warming episode, through a NW/SE unsettled/sunny split, to 'meh', to an unseasonal battering with high winds - all depends on the final track (which still has significant spread right now). However, operational models do currently seem to be leaning towards unseasonal surprise.
ERNESTO | 2024-08-18 00Z | ECMWF Ensemble Tracks. GEFS Ensemble, init: 2024081806, AL05 Ernesto tracks. Wind gusts, km/h, GFS, 12z22Aug2024 (init 12z18Aug2024).
 
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The increased rain over the Sahara desert has led to the growth of visible vegetation in certain areas. Satellite images of Tanout, Niger acquired on September 8, 2024, show a visible increase in green patches compared to images from September 14, 2023.

The unusual rains are linked to the northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is bringing in above-average rainfall with some regions expecting to see 500% of typical monthly rainfall.
The ECMWF extended precipitation anomaly for early September also showed a large portion of the Sahara Desert under significant rainfall anomalies, forecasting 2024 to be the wettest year for the Sahara Desert since 1994.

The ITCZ shift, along with the record-positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has altered weather patterns across the Atlantic and Africa. This shift has led to increased rainfall in regions such as the Sahel and the Sahara Desert.
 
Tropical Storm Helene is expected to become Hurricane Helene after passing over record-breakingly warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico - forecasts show a possible direct hit on the Tallahassee mansion of climate change-denying Florida governor Ron DeSantis


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Though the strongest winds (and storm surges) tend to be in the leading right-hand quadrant (and associated eyewall). So offset to the right of the track in the direction of travel (for a hurricane in the northern hemisphere).

The latest ECMWF ensemble run clusters the tracks towards the west, with landfall projected around Apalachee Bay, SSE of Tallahassee.
 
interesting website
current lead story - amazing to me how this doesnt get reported in GB

Widespread floods in West and Central Africa, caused by extraordinary torrential rains since July 2024, killed at least 1 000 people and affected 4 million. The floods destroyed 300 000 homes and displaced 500 000 people. The catastrophic humanitarian situation, aggravated by the northward passage of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), has resulted in widespread damage to homes, schools, medical facilities, swaths of farmland, and heightening the risk of water-borne diseases, food insecurity, and malnutrition.
 
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