Expenses scandal: Will help BNP and UKIP?

[nino_savatte]

Farage was interviewed by John Humphreys on the R4 Today programme (after an incredibly biased anti-UKIP introduction from Mark Mardell). The recent accusations laid against the party are discussed. Could I ask that anyone who wishes to comment listens to both introduction and interview. (9 minutes in total.)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8075000/8075012.stm

LOL!!!

And the Daily Telegraph is no friend of UKIP's.

That's because the Telegraph sees UKIP as Tory splitters; heretics, if you will. Odd really, because you lot are very Thatcherite.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Farage was interviewed by John Humphreys on the R4 Today programme (after an incredibly biased anti-UKIP introduction from Mark Mardell). The recent accusations laid against the party are discussed. Could I ask that anyone who wishes to comment listens to both introduction and interview. (9 minutes in total.)

Fucking norra, worra corrupt, oily, racist pig Nigel Falange is. Him and his likle party of brownshirts in blazers should be sent packing to the shithole of history as fast as possible.

 

[ViolentPanda]

...Nigel Falange...

 

[JimPage]

Telegraphy YouGov poll today- signicicantly with a larger than average sampkle of 5,000, most samples are 1,000- 1,200 odd

European voting intention figures,
CON 27%
LAB 17%
UKIP 16%
LDEM 15%
Green 9%
BNP 7%
SNP & PC 4%
Others 6%

And as others have said, that 7% is a national, not regional vote, so, if true, read this as 9-10% in their strongest areas.

Just a bit more on the poll- regional breakdown shows them at 9% in the North, 8% in Midlands and Wales (this probably weighthed towards midlands not Wales

Bookies odds for today
Paddy Power 2-9 on - Win ...... 11-4 No Win
William Hill 2-5 on Win ....... 7-4 no win
Ladbrokes not offering money on win ....... 11-8 no win

BNP vote share at Ladbrokes
Under 8% Evens
Over 8% 11/8

 

[JimPage]

And something which sums up the absurdity of the the stupider end of antifascism,...

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/britainsgottalent/a157730/gordon-brown-praises-diversity.html

"The Labour Party leader spoke about the reality TV winners on GMTV this morning, claiming that their success is a sign that the British public do not support the far-right politics of the BNP."

So thats ok then. A TV poll is evidence that they wont win in 3 days time.....

This is what purports to be antifascism in 2009

 

[audiotech]

This is what purports to be antifascism in 2009

Gordon gettin' down with the yoof innit.

 

[JimPage]

On a purely practical note, keep eyes out for some of the CC election results of Friday to give an indication as to whether BNP have broken through or not. Is some area in the NW (Copeland, Carlisle, Burnley, Pendle ) they are fighting full slates at the CC elections, and by comparing the 2004 votes for the Borough to the CC results, you will get an estimate of how they will do in the Euros. Playradio covering CC elections, as are BBC 5 live

 

[trevhagl]

There's been a lot of inconsistent polls - lots of early ones suggesting that the BNP were benefitting more than UKIP and the Greens, then a load saying the opposite. The results mostly seem to suit the organisation commissioning them and/or the story they're quoted in. This happened before the mayoral elections too - and it turned out that the weight the Evening Standard gave to the suburbs was a more accurate reflection of turnout on the day.

The BNP will probably do well, but it's hard to know how well.

depends how you class as "well" bearing in mind they have huge funds, lots of rich backers who want to see the working class divided.... it would be pretty hard NOT to get SOMETHING you'd think?

 

[frogwoman]

I was asked to do a Yougov poll yesterday which asked me about my views about the BNP and asked me to assess how much I agreed or disagreed with various fash-sounding statements - like that Jews are controlling western civilisation

 

[butchersapron]

New Comres poll with, according to UK poll report, "frankly odd" results - with 30% voting other than the mainstream parties, but with 9% of that 30% not being Green, UKIP or BNP, being "other others" - and with the tories down 15%. This for GE as well, not the euros.

Remarkably, the poll puts the "other parties" on 30 per cent – neck and neck with the Tories. The Tories' rating is 15 points down on the last ComRes survey for this newspaper a month ago, before the controversy erupted. It is at its lowest level in any poll since April 2006, poll since April 2006 when David Cameron was engulfed in a row over his party's policy on grammar schools.

If a general election were held now, Labour would win 22 per cent of the votes and the Liberal Democrats 18 per cent, the poll found. That would leave Mr Cameron 46 seats short of an overall majority. The poll suggests that, while Labour has hit rock bottom, the expenses controversy is now dragging down the Tories too. Although Mr Cameron won praise for his response when the scandal broke, there has since been a stream of revelations about how Tory MPs have milked the system.

Report

 

[frogwoman]

No2EU?

 

[frogwoman]

Btw, i think the coalition's choice of name and emphasis is going to have a really bad negative effect in the election unfortunately. I've spoken to loads of people who just assume they're just another version of UKIP.

 

[Idris2002]

like that Jews are controlling western civilisation

If only you were. If only you were.

 

[frogwoman]

If only you were. If only you were.

well, quite

 

[John Headstrong]

I found a nice poke at UKIP

http://www.wekip.org/

 

[butchersapron]

Final Days poll round up from UK polling report:

ComRes/Green (31/05/09)
CON 24, LAB 22, LDEM 14, UKIP 17, GRN 15, BNP 2

YouGov/Telegraph (29/05/09)
CON 27, LAB 17, LDEM 15, UKIP 16, GRN 9, BNP 7

ICM/Sunday Telegraph
(28/05/09) CON 29, LAB 17, LDEM 20, UKIP 10, GRN 11, BNP 5

Populus/Times (28/05/09)
CON 30, LAB 16, LDEM 12, UKIP 19, GRN 10, BNP 5

That leaves us with the BNP. Here the big issue is interviewer bias, people are almost certainly more unwilling to admit to supporting a party widely seen as extremist and racist when they are talking to a human interviewer. My expectation therefore is that YouGov are likely to get closer to the true level of BNP support. Whether that is enough for them to win a seat is a different matter. On a uniform swing YouGov’s final figures would give them two seats, but it really depends how well they do regionally. They could get seats even on a lower overall percentage if their advance is concentrated in the North West.

That brings us onto the subject of the smaller parties. Firstly we should deal with UKIP, who in European elections at least are up there with the other main parties in terms of support. Populus indeed shows them in second place. Again, the difference is down to the prompting, but my guess is that they’ll be closer to the levels of support YouGov and Populus show than that from ICM.

Prompted or not, the Greens have a similar level of support in ICM, YouGov and Populus’s polls - all have them within 1 point of 10%. The poll they themselves commissioned has that strange 15% support for the Greens, but without seeing what question was asked it’s impossible to know it is the result of unusual prompting.