European Parliament elections?

[lang rabbie]

I'd support that - with reservations - given that I'll almost certainly vote Green.

However, for the purposes of the d'Hondt system used to elect MEPs, it's more true to say that only a vote for someone likely to beat or be equal to the BNP will reduce their chances of being elected. I wouldn't say that a vote for No2EU for example will make a jot of difference

And therefore despite being a "proportional" method, the d'Hondt unfortunately still leaves some people forced to vote tactically/negatively.

Last weekend's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, had the Greens and BNP both on 4%

IF the percentage forecast for the Greens remain at or below the level of the BNP throughout the campaign, then wavering independent voters - for whom ensuring that the BNP don't win a seat is most important and who might otherwise vote Green - will need to grit their teeth and vote for one of the "big three" parties.

I'm not sure whether the new look Evening Standard will be commissioning an opinion poll specifically for the London Euro constituency, which might make the choice clearer for Londoners.

 

[butchersapron]

That's a national type poll though - the votes are regional, so it's petty meaningless predicting local outcomes on that basis - esp where small parties with strong regional bases are concerned. This poll was the centre of the BBCs crap report at 10 last night as well.

 

[Bob]

Hmm, no , I don't buy it. All politicians may be bastards, but some are bigger bastards than the others.

I would dispute that.

Most politicians I know, from all political parties, are good people trying to make the world a better place.

They're human which means they're flawed like the rest of us - so it's quite reasonable to be angry with them when they do bad stuff.

Still you're right that there are relative differences - and that should be what determines your vote.

Incidentaly Ajdown - you're one of the biggest whingers on here about things you don't like - don't expect anyone to care about your view if you don't vote.

 

[butchersapron]

I would dispute that.

Most politicians I know, from all political parties, are good people trying to make the world a better place.

They're human which means they're flawed like the rest of us - so it's quite reasonable to be angry with them when they do bad stuff.

Still you're right that there are relative differences - and that should be what determines your vote.

Incidentaly Ajdown - you're one of the biggest whingers on here about things you don't like - don't expect anyone to care about your view if you don't vote.

Rubbish - we still have our rights and so on even if we don't vote.

 

[ajdown]

Rubbish - we still have our rights and so on even if we don't vote.

The right not to vote is actually as important an expression of opinion as casting a vote, really.

It's the job of the candidates to motivate us to vote for them, by not only making the effort to listen to the constituents views, but also for party literature explaining the policies they are standing on.

So far, I've seen nothing.

 

[Bob]

Rubbish - we still have our rights and so on even if we don't vote.

Rights yes.

Right to whinge and have me bother to listen to you, no.

 

[ajdown]

Yesterday I had a nice letter from the Lib Dem candidate through my letterbox. So it seems they're starting, at last.

 

[Black Halo]

If anyone wants some help looking at the issues that the parties are at least campaigning on and seeing who best matches your views on those pan-European issues then Vote Match have a simple set of questions which can at least point you in the correct direction of what party to vote for in your constituency(if you have no idea whatsoever).

I am not affiliated with Vote Match just these elections sneaked (snuck?) up on me too and I found the site quite useful even though I did have half an idea which way I would vote.

EDIT:
Also even the BNP thinks its own members are nut jobs, I mean “oddballs”, http://tr.im/jdAG

 

[Bob]

If anyone wants some help looking at the issues that the parties are at least campaigning on and seeing who best matches your views on those pan-European issues then Vote Match have a simple set of questions which can at least point you in the correct direction of what party to vote for in your constituency(if you have no idea whatsoever).

I am not affiliated with Vote Match just these elections sneaked (snuck?) up on me too and I found the site quite useful even though I did have half an idea which way I would vote.

EDIT:
Also even the BNP thinks its own members are nut jobs, I mean “oddballs”, http://tr.im/jdAG

Quite a good vote match.

I can out best matched to the Lib Dems (since I'm a Lib Dem member that's reassuring), then Labour, Greens and last Conservatives.

 

[Jean-Luc]

I don't think that PR can be blamed for letting in the BNP.

I don't know whether "blame" is the right word, but it's one of its results. The Liberals and Greens who compaigned for, and got, PR can't complain if it benefits another minority party too. And if enough Londoners vote for the BNP on what grounds can they be denied representation?

 

[Winot]

I don't know whether "blame" is the right word, but it's one of its results. The Liberals and Greens who compaigned for, and got, PR can't complain if it benefits another minority party too. And if enough Londoners vote for the BNP on what grounds can they be denied representation?

I agree. We need to fight the BNP on the substance of their arguments, and not be afraid to call those who then vote for them racists.

 

[ajdown]

... or accept that democracy means you don't always get your way, and if a party whose policies you happen to disagree with happen to get a seat, tough.

 

[se5]

I agree. We need to fight the BNP on the substance of their arguments, and not be afraid to call those who then vote for them racists.

Yes - this is why I think that the whole 'no platform for the BNP' calls are wrong and give the party an 'allure' as a place for protest votes. They need to be questioned as much as the next party over what they would do if elected - how would they deal with particular problems, how would they reconcile their duty to represent all the constituencts with their racism etc etc.

And their record in the places where they have been elected needs to be scrutinised - the impressions Ive got is that on the whole they have proved to be incompetent, breaking rules and failing in the basic duties of being a councillor etc.

 

[_float_]

I am re-posting this from another thread (re. advice on tactical voting) because it is directly relevant to this one:

2004 European election results (London region)

Con. 26.8% = 3 seats
Lab. 24.8% = 3 seats
LD. 15.3% = 1 seat
UKIP 12.3% = 1 seat
Green 8.4% = 1 seat
Respect 4.8%
BNP 4.0%
Christ.Ppl 2.4%
Eng.Dem. 0.9%
PPBG/Prior 0.3%

Note: In the 2009 elections the number of MEPs is being reduced from 9 to 8.

2009 European elections / London Region (with my predictions/change in vote):

Con. (26 / -1) = 3 seats
Lab. (23 / -2) = 2 seats
L.D. (14 / -1) = 2 seats
UKIP (12 / =) = 1 seat
Green (9 / +1)
NO2EU (5 / +5)
BNP (5 / +1)
Christian (2 / =)
Eng.Dem. (1 / =)
Jury Team (1 / +1)
Libertas (1 / +1)
Soc.Lab. (0 / =)
Soc.GB. (0 / =)
Yes2Europe (0 / =)
Ind/Patrick (0 / =)
Ind/Alcantara (0 / =)
Ind/Cheung (0 / =)
Ind/Jananayagam (0 / =)
Ind/Rahman (0 / =)
Ind/Saad (0 / =)

The good news is that with the number of MEPs being reduced to 8 the BNP have almost no chance of being elected IMO. The less good news (depending on your political perspective) is that the Green Party will probably lose their seat.

My advice therefore is to vote for whichever of the following is closest to your taste:

Con. / Lab. / L.D. / UKIP / Green

...since the fight for seats will be between these parties.

Editd to add: I might re-do my predictions and run them through the d'Hondt method just to double-check this.

 

[gaijingirl]

Who is Libertas?

I did that Vote Match thing - very interesting. I came up Lib Dem as well, followed by Green, then Libertas - who is Libertas - please tell me it's not some BNP/UKIP clone?

To be completely honest, I really didn't know what to answer for lots of the questions, my knowledge of how the EU works is nowhere near deep enough to answer some of the questions given which assume quite an indepth understanding of some issues. I note though that there is links to a website called Debatewise.com which gives all the pros and cons of each issue, so if I have a moment I might find out the arguments for/against import restrictions in the EU etc etc....

 

[Bob]

Libertas are a UKIP style anti. Eu party who've had some success in Ireland. So nutty but not outright facists.

 

[_float_]

NB. It will appear on the ballot as "Pro-Democracy: Libertas.eu"

It was formed by Declan Ganley, an Irish businessman, in the after-math of the the 2008 referendum in Ireland on Lisbon Treaty (ie new EU constitution), where his lobby group successfully advocated a "no" vote.

It has member parties in Estonia, Germany, Ireland, Holland, Poland, Sweden and the UK, plus 'affiliates'/partners in Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain.

The following is from their website: http://libertas.eu/

I can't see why Bob is calling them "nutty" unless it is simply that he disagrees with their euro-scepticism? They are not my cup of tea but I feel that politics and democracy is best served when people have a clear choice and proper information in front of them...

"not outright facists" - Bob, I am guessing you meant to say "fascists"? Are you saying that they are generally right wing, and if so do you have any evidence? Because it is possible to be Euro-sceptic and on the left or in the centre on all sorts of issues. Maybe you have further information that you can share about libertas?

 

[Bob]

Float maybe I'm being unfair to them.

Their policies that you've posted up are all, pretty much, Lib Dem policies, and a lot of them would be supported by the other mainstream parties.

It's more their tone that concerns me. IME UKIP supporters are very right wing, basically polite middle class versions of the BNP. I admit that I've got no proof this is true of Libertas, but the populist anti EU tone worriez me whether it comes from left or right.

It also unrealistic to say you're going to cut loads of waste unless you specify where (probably CAP) and how (ie how do you get a majority of the EU Parliament behind it?). And what on earth do they have to say about major eu issues like cliimate change, the eorpean arrest warrant and trade negotiations?

 

[se5]

The BBC's Mark Mardell has written about them - http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2009/03/libertas.html. As I understand it their vision is that largely of right wing parties across Europe - a smaller trade based EU rather than the expansionist European state with social protection etc, 'ever closer union' as envisaged in the treaty, that was the previous vision for Europe expounded by the European Commission.

 

[butchersapron]

Doesn't matter, they'll get sweet FA votes anyway.

 

[_float_]

Sure, but it was in response to gaijingirl wondering why it had been listed 3 in her 'Vote Match'.

Presumably LibDem, Green and Libertas share policies (ie reform of EU) but LibDem/Green at least have clear differences with BNP/UKIP (ie immigration, full withdrawal from the EU plus a range of right-wing policies). Libertas on the other hand seems a bit vague.

 

[Jean-Luc]

A big hoarding poster has appeared in Brixton and nearny saying VOTE CHRISTIAN. WE CAN BEAT THE BNP. OTHER PARTIES CAN'T. I don't think this is true. The Christian Party will not get more votes than the BNP and in fact any votes cast for it (since it is not a party with a chance of being allocated a seat)will increase the BNP's chances. But it's a variation on Respect's VOTE MUSLIM TO BEAT THE BNP. Incidentally, the Christian Party got more votes in the 2008 London elections than Respect.

 

[ajdown]

I've seen 3 of those posters around London - one under the railway bridge, one down towards Camberwell, and one up by Westminster Bridge under the lines out of Waterloo.

Can't say the content particularly inspires me to vote for them.. so far not one party has told me what they're going to do to improve things, just what everyone else is doing wrong.

 

[lang rabbie]

Gee, Toto, I don't think we're in Brixton Hill anymore

if anyone gets any leaflets though the door and uploads them here: http://www.thestraightchoice.org/ I'll buy them beer

I don't think it is really the case that the nearest UKIP and Jury team leaflets to me were delivered to Coffeyville, Kansas* - as suggested by the mapping on these pages:

Say No to European Union - Vote UKIP
Vote for Jury Team

* Coffeyville, KS is Amazon's main distribution centre in the USA- is it hard coded as point zero in some free mapping software

 

[netbob]

I don't think it is really the case that the nearest UKIP and Jury team leaflets to me were delivered to Coffeyville, Kansas* - as suggested by the mapping on these pages:

Say No to European Union - Vote UKIP
Vote for Jury Team

* Coffeyville, KS is Amazon's main distribution centre in the USA- is it hard coded as point zero in some free mapping software

cocks. it's down to me having to borrow postcodes from a popular mapping website (rather than pay the post office 10k, which goes wrong occasionally). Ive deleted them and made a note to start recording the postcode to I can fix things later when this happens.

 

[lang rabbie]

The Lambeth result for what is worth...

Labour......15,990 27.76%
Lib Dems ..11,340 19.69%
Con..........10,537 18.29%
Green.......10,394 18.05%
UKIP..........3,111 5.40%
Christian.....2,154 3.74%
BNP...........1,174 2.04%
Soc Lab.......653 1.13%
Oth Indeps...493 0.86%
Eng Dem......488 0.85%
No2EU.........478 0.83%
Libertas.......281 0.49%
Jury Team....194 0.34%
Soc Party.....158 0.27%
Yes 2 Europe.155 0.27%

Turnout 30.15%

Source:

 

[brix]

The Lambeth result for what is worth...


Source:

The BNP got over a thousand votes in Lambeth. That's really upsetting

 

[_float_]

And here's how the Lambeth results look compared to the last Euro elections in 2004:
source (page 34)

Year......................2004.......................2009.............change:

Lab.....................20,225...32.1%.............15,990...27.8%.....-4,235
LibDem..................12,358...19.6%.............11,340...19.7%.....-1,018
Con.....................10,378...16.5%.............10,537...18.3%.......+159
Green....................8,802...14.0%.............10,394...18.1%.....+1,592
UKIP.....................4,647....7.4%..............3,111....5.4%.....-1,536
BNP......................1,051....1.7%..............1,174....2.0%.......+123
All others...............5,614....8.9%..............5,054....8.7%.......-560

Total (turnout).........63,075..(32.9%)............57,600..(30.2%)....-5,475

Technically the Lib Dems and Conservatives have done better (in % terms), but if you look at the raw number of votes everyone is down or static except for the Green Party.

Labour lost over 4000 votes
Lib Dems lost over 1000 votes
UKIP lost over 1500 votes and the Conservatives and BNP failed to pick these up
"Other parties" were down slightly (of which 2004: Respect c.3000; 2009: Christian c.2000)

So of the 7,000 odd voters who walked away from Lab/LibDem/UKIP/'other' 5,500 didn't vote and 1,500 went Green
(It's a shame I can't easily include comparative figures for numbers of spoilt ballots)

 

[London_Calling]

Most signnificant thing I can see on a reduced turnout is that some Labour supporters either stayed at home or went Green, a few may even have voted Etonian.

Interesting but perhaps misleading that UKIP went down by the same that the Greens went up - Greens went up 4% on a reduced turnout.

 

[_float_]

That's why it is worth looking at the raw numbers: you can see in Lambeth for example that while the Conservatives percentage is up c.2% their actual support base hasn't increased. The LibDems percentage increased a fraction but in reality they actually *lost* voters.