Pickman's model
sunset spires and twilight woods
a prof, eh? well, that's that then.Yup, you got it JHE. The Professor of Government at Essex University agrees with you on this too...
Embarrassing if BNP beat left in Glasgow
- Thread starter sonny61
- Start date
The Black Hand
Unclean
Up from 3.2% to 4.9% given the huge amount of free publicity is zero really. If another tiny party had that amount of coverage their vote % would rocket imho.
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
So, improving their yield of votes by over 50% in an area that is historically inimical to that sort of politics is "zero really" when they're having to work against over 30 years of negative press about their politics?
What the fuck are you sniffing, up there in your ivory tower, attica? It seems to have made you blind.
JHE
.
Their vote in 2005 was 920. In this by-election it was 1013, an increase of 93 votes, or just over 10%.
Sure their %age increased. Sure they got more votes while other parties got fewer. Nevertheless, they got less than 5%, and so lost their deposit, despite so many people who would vote for Lab or SNP staying at home.
There are places where the BNP gets a much higher proportion of the votes. All those places are in England.
Something I missed earlier: When looking up the 2005 result, I noticed that the Scargill Labour Party did surprisingly well in 2005, getting 4,036 votes, 14.2%. This time they were down to 47 votes, 0.2%. I wonder what happened there.
Edit: It's just occurred to me. In 2005, there was no Labour candidate, but the SLP has a name which is similar. In this election, people who wanted to vote for a candidate identified as Labour did just that, voting for the winner. It's a bit depressing.
Pickman's model
sunset spires and twilight woods
JHE
.
Arthur is now the only member left.
The Black Hand
Unclean
Violent Panda, this would seem to be the answer to your point, 93 votes IS nothing. I do not even have to to the statistical number crunching and logarithms because I am so confident as to the outcome, I say that it is definately statistically insignificant. That is a scientific fact btw
(if unproven by said number crunching at this stage).The BNP are fighting a large scottish left socialist tradition up there. JHE's observation about what happened to the SLP is actually more important imho, that cannot be put down to the BNP.
The Black Hand
Unclean
Two things, firstly, consider the decrease in voter turnout from from 2005 45.8% to 33% in 2009- hence the maginal increase in their vote is noteworthy.
Secondly, as major parties , excepting the SNP, didnt fight the speaker in 2005- their vote was artifically increased - so I believe a BNP vote as high as 3.2% was an over estimate in their level of support in 2005
I think the Scottish left is in the same sense of denial that they could do well up here, as the english left were in 2002. " Stoke/Newcastle/Barnsley/Dewsbury/Barking" are solid working class towns with a history of support for the labour and trades union movement. They will never gain ground here" etc etc
The simple fact is that the half a dozen active members of Glasgow BNP, have beaten the left for the first time in a major election- and no hearkening back to the poll tax campaigns and Red Clydesdale will help
The only thing which will reverse this in the short term will be a non- agression pact among socialists in advance of the 2010 General Election- which is even less likely than english comrades getting their act together
Secondly, as major parties , excepting the SNP, didnt fight the speaker in 2005- their vote was artifically increased - so I believe a BNP vote as high as 3.2% was an over estimate in their level of support in 2005
I think the Scottish left is in the same sense of denial that they could do well up here, as the english left were in 2002. " Stoke/Newcastle/Barnsley/Dewsbury/Barking" are solid working class towns with a history of support for the labour and trades union movement. They will never gain ground here" etc etc
The simple fact is that the half a dozen active members of Glasgow BNP, have beaten the left for the first time in a major election- and no hearkening back to the poll tax campaigns and Red Clydesdale will help
The only thing which will reverse this in the short term will be a non- agression pact among socialists in advance of the 2010 General Election- which is even less likely than english comrades getting their act together
ViolentPanda
Hardly getting over it.
Stop using impressive sounding words to try and make yourself sound clever. You don't need "logarithms" to calculate statistics, although you might indirectly utilise algorithms if you use a statistical analysis software program.
...I say that it is definately statistically insignificant. That is a scientific fact btw
The BNP are fighting a large scottish left socialist tradition up there. JHE's observation about what happened to the SLP is actually more important imho, that cannot be put down to the BNP.
I blame myself for actually giving credibility to what you posted, to whit: "Up from 3.2% to 4.9%...".
Because guess what, an increase of 1.7% from your 3.2% (which gives us the total of 4.9% which you quoted) would indeed have been an improvement in votes of over 50%.
The Black Hand
Unclean
Those stats I used I took from the Daily Mail Nov 14th 2009 page 6. I too took them to be true, serves me right for trusting right wing newspapers. But even I did expect them to be right, especially from the professor of government who wrote the article... Too think they get paid for that...
I still say that, given so much free advertising any other small party would have increased their vote at a faster rate than the BNP. Yes, 2 increasing to 3 is an increase of 50%, it is still completely meaningless...
From www.alba.org.uk the palce for Scottish Political Anoraks. Make of this what you will....
BNP votes in Glasgow
1983 GE Shettleston 0.3%
1997 GE Shettleston 0.7%
1999 European Election Scotland Wide 0.4%- (0.7% in Springburn)
2003 Scottish Parliament List - Glasgow 1.1%
2004 European Elections -Scotland Wide 1.6% - (2.7% in Springburn)
2005 GE- Glasgow Central 2.5%, Glasgow NE 3.2%
2007 Scottish Parliament List- Glasgow 1.9%
2009 European Election -Glasgow 3.2%
BNP votes in Glasgow
1983 GE Shettleston 0.3%
1997 GE Shettleston 0.7%
1999 European Election Scotland Wide 0.4%- (0.7% in Springburn)
2003 Scottish Parliament List - Glasgow 1.1%
2004 European Elections -Scotland Wide 1.6% - (2.7% in Springburn)
2005 GE- Glasgow Central 2.5%, Glasgow NE 3.2%
2007 Scottish Parliament List- Glasgow 1.9%
2009 European Election -Glasgow 3.2%
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Oh, the irony!
The Black Hand
Unclean
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