Economy at 60-year low says Chancellor

[trevhagl]

Some absolutely barking comments on this thread.

Darling is a complete and utter pillock, totally out of his depth as Chancellor. banking mainly relies on confidence for money to transfer from one institution to another. A comment like this will seriously dent that. On top of his stamp-duty comments it's blindly obvious he's at best inexperienced, at worst completely inept.

Sabbatical: Waht are you whaffling about with comments about Imperialism? Difficult generation for the Labour party, look back a bit further than 1997, they were on the up then, not at it's lowest point when Kinnock couldn't win a punching out of a paper bag competition.

trevhagel: Get over yourself, the fault of the Tories? They've been out of power for 11 fucking years! Labour have had every opportunity to revise the regulation processes over the banks. They even did (admitedly) have the good idea of making the Bank of England responsible for the base interest rates. But failed to cap lending.

Bollocks. The Tories are still in power only they're called New Labour

The cause of the present problem was the abject failure to cap lending as a percentage of income. Being able to gain loans on 5 to 7 times an annual wage were insane. It should have stayed at half that rate. Likewise being able to build massive credit card debt.

Military funding: In the real world we are an island nation, with our present livestyle we are dependent on imports from across the world. This means that we will need to have the capability of defending the routes and sources of those imports. Unfortunately successive government (Tory and Labour) have used the military as a whipping boy for cut backs and we do NOT have the capability to carry out that mission. On top of that, what we do have has been stretched by a distraction in Afghanistan and the illegal activities of Bush and Blair in Iraq.

Bollocks . The Tories are still in power, just under a different name

 

[MikeMcc]

Bollocks . The Tories are still in power, just under a different name

Labour may have given up on the ideals on the movement that started them, but they're not bloody Tories. Stop living in denial. ALL politicians are self-serving wankers. It's a pre-requiste of the job. You're still waffling in your last post. It made no sense.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Interesting points by Chris Dillow in Stumbling & Mumbling.

He presents evidence for the fundamentals being nothing like so bad, and thinks Alistair Darling is hysterically exaggerating in order to try to bounce the monetary policy committee into cutting interests rates.

Is this from a damage limitation e-mail hurridly sent out to nu-labour activists?

 

[shagnasty]

From the few murmurings so far it doesn't look like he had the guvnors(brown) approval it must be said he his failing to keep a tight ship ie purnell making his annoucncement before the bye-election millicunt and now darling how it must be painful for all those self serving nu labour mps

 

[Fullyplumped]

Is this from a damage limitation e-mail hurridly sent out to nu-labour activists?

No, it's from me. You aren't familiar with Chris Dillow? He's worth reading.

 

[Darios]

It gets better.

UK holding of U.S. Treasury securities. In the space of a year, the UK has increased it's holdings from $50 billion to $280.4 billion. Since June 2007 the country has gone from being the 8th largest foreign holder to the 3rd largest.

Figures here

What. The. Fuck.

So which fuckwit decided that the potential return was worth the risk on this one?

Thanks for sharing that one with us Darling - U.K. Plc, the world's doorstop for the U.S. economy.

 

[treelover]

It'll be cold getting evicted because of mortgage foreclosure.

It may be a sign of the times or a one off, , but a massive old Victorian pile has been repossessed on my road, this is a leafy area which has seen massive price rises and a booming housing market.

 

[david dissadent]

It gets better.

UK holding of U.S. Treasury securities. In the space of a year, the UK has increased it's holdings from $50 billion to $280.4 billion. Since June 2007 the country has gone from being the 8th largest foreign holder to the 3rd largest.

Figures here

What. The. Fuck.

So which fuckwit decided that the potential return was worth the risk on this one?

Thanks for sharing that one with us Darling - U.K. Plc, the world's doorstop for the U.S. economy.

Now I did not know THAT, thanks for the link Darios.

 

[elbows]

Oh now we've got a leaked document that tell us what the consequences of the downturn might be, it reads a bit like one of my gloomy rambling posts, not fun but the last point made me laugh:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/01/economy.gordonbrown

· An increase in support for "far right extremism and racism";

· a possible increase in the support for radical Islamist groups from people who experience racism and possible unemployment;

· an "upward pressure on acquisitive crime", property crime, which increases during a downturn;

· an increase in public hostility to migrants as the job market tightens;

· a fall in the use of cocaine and less drunken disorder in town centres unless drinks companies respond to the downturn by aggressive price cutting.

Meanwhile the article indicates that we might soon get some actual policies to deal with the woetimes:

The first initiative will be announced tomorrow when the government unveils plans to help millions of less well-off people gain - or at least not lose - a place on the housing ladder. This is likely to include a "shared equity" plan in which local authorities and housing associations help borrowers in return for a stake in their homes. Next week ministers will unveil plans to help people with rising fuel bills when the first cabinet of the new season will be held in Birmingham. This is expected to include measures to improve energy efficiency.

 

[shagnasty]

Nu labour are pushing voters into the hands of the bnp etc.it has been said on the forum how worrying the rise of the bnp has been

 

[behemoth]

Nu labour are pushing voters into the hands of the bnp etc.it has been said on the forum how worrying the rise of the bnp has been

The BNP became electable for the first time in history during Brown and Blair's boom bubble, nothing to do with the economy. As for the worst conditions in 60 years, one can only assume Darling was asleep during the 1980s. If falling house prices are the main indicator of economic well-being, then bring on the new recession. A lot of young people have been waiting for this opportunity for many years.

 

[Steve Booth]

Maybe they are talking up the recession in the same way that Labour have a habit of talking down their expectations of turnout immediately prior to elections. Then when the thing happens and it isn't as bad as the prediction, things don't quite look so bad.

I reckon the War Against Terror as an economic factor will kick in again after the US election, and save them.

 

[Wolveryeti]

It's a bit of a myth (talked up by themselves when things are going well) that the government has a massive influence on the economy IMO. All the parties like to pretend otherwise of course.

I disagree to the extent that it's frighteningly easy for a government to shaft an economy through an excess of badly judged loans (Argentina, USSR), but agree to the extent that yeah, when things go well, there are a number of compelling explanations for it that don't involve the government of the time.

 

[Darios]

More good news:

From The Telegraph

Troubled lenders in the UK may have tapped the Bank of England's emergency funding scheme for as much as £200bn, according to investment bank UBS - double the most aggressive estimates.

...

Bankers and economists were surprised by the forecast, calling it "unlikely but plausible". One, Simon Ward, economist at New Star, said: "If it is right, then the British banking system is relying much more heavily on state support than either Europe or the US, which would suggest the banking system here is in greater trouble."

Plus:

House hold debt takes over GDP

Despite all of this large transnationals are going to do just fine

That's alright then.

 

[david dissadent]

Link

Chancellor Alistair Darling is understood to be close to temporarily abandoning the Government's fiscal rules rather than changing them when he presents his pre-Budget report later this autumn.


The UK's public borrowing will break through the £50bn mark in this financial year and the 40 per cent ceiling on total debt will be breached in 2009.

If the rules dont work.... change them.

 

[david dissadent]

September 3 - Bloomberg (Ben Livesey): "U.K. banks may have tapped the Bank of England's special funding plan for about 200 billion pounds ($354 billion), according to UBS AG analysts, as wholesale funding markets stay closed. The central bank in April introduced the so-called special liquidity scheme, allowing U.K. lenders to swap mortgage-backed securities damaged by the credit squeeze for government bonds. The window for borrowing closes in October, after which the central bank will announce how much money has been handed out. 'We believe the Bank of England is encouraging all eligible players to make full use of this facility, said ... analysts led by Alastair Ryan ... 'With securitization markets closed, the banks are incentivized to do just that.'"

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JI09Dj03.html

I thought it was only £50 billion on offer. £200 billion is alot of money. Youd like to hope that they get most of it back.