Dutch elections 2017

[Pickman's model]

I love urban
Pointless arguments and speculation

 

[redsquirrel]

which is why I am able to say some polls were taken only in Amsterdam and other were not national.

Which should not matter so long as your sampling is good and you apply the appropriate corrections.

EDIT: And I see nothing about Ipsos's latest poll not being a national poll

This Poll is based on an online study among a representative random sample of 1163 Dutch people entitled to vote. The data was collected from Monday afternoon, March 13, 2017 up to and including Tuesday, March 14, 2017.

How accurate are the figures?
Because the numbers of seats we publish are based on random samples, statistical margins should be taken into account accordingly. Given the size of the samples used in the separate polls, the average margins are +/- 1% for the smaller parties and +/- 2.5% for the largest parties.

 

[1%er]

I love urban
Pointless arguments and speculation

You should know, you are here 16 hours a day 7 days a week

 

[1%er]

As of mid-afternoon turnout appears to be higher than the last election, more than 10% higher in Amsterdam, 8% higher in Rotterdam and around 6% nationally compared to 2012. Not really sure who this could favor or if people are just going earlier, but a high turnout has to be a good thing. It is being reported that extra voting booths are being added at some popular locations to help support the higher turnout.

While we should know the number of people who voted for which party by Thursday morning, it will be a few weeks (may be even months) before we know the make-up of the next government as it is likely to take at least 4/5 parties to come together to form a government.

Wilders supporters are claiming that the spat with Turkey will help undecided voters make up their mind and support Wilders, while Rutte supporters are saying his strong stand against Turkey has help him, we'll know tomorrow which side is right.

 

[skyscraper101]

Is it similar to the UK, as in, will we get an idea of results later tonight?

 

[Pickman's model]

Is it similar to the UK, as in, will we get an idea of results later tonight?

LMGTFY

 

[skyscraper101]

Most excellent

 

[1%er]

Is it similar to the UK, as in, will we get an idea of results later tonight?

In larger cities it will be full result Thursday morning but some smaller areas will report in the early hours. There should be an exit poll result shortly after the polls close.

From speaking to a friend in Holland on skype just now it seems that the dutch Labor party (PvdA) is going to crash with many of its supports moving to the Socialist Party or to Wilders PVV. The PvdA are the 2nd biggest party now but their supporters are pissed off that they went into government with Rutte.

It seems a bit like the UK with the workingclass worried about austerity, economic inequality, immigration and out-of-touch political elites, I'm told that Rutte’s People’s Party has been ratcheting up it anti-immigration rhetoric to try and catch some of the disillusioned labor supporters.

 

[Old Spark]

I read somewhere they are counting by hand for the first time in a decade due to fears about hacking.Sounds like that will be slower .

 

[J Ed]

Let's see what happens then.

 

[brogdale]

Exit polling suggests their 'Labour' (PvdA) has been 'Pasoked'; 38 down to 9 seats.

 

[treelover]

In larger cities it will be full result Thursday morning but some smaller areas will report in the early hours. There should be an exit poll result shortly after the polls close.

From speaking to a friend in Holland on skype just now it seems that the dutch Labor party (PvdA) is going to crash with many of its supports moving to the Socialist Party or to Wilders PVV. The PvdA are the 2nd biggest party now but their supporters are pissed off that they went into government with Rutte.

It seems a bit like the UK with the workingclass worried about austerity, economic inequality, immigration and out-of-touch political elites, I'm told that Rutte’s People’s Party has been ratcheting up it anti-immigration rhetoric to try and catch some of the disillusioned labor supporters.

Rutte basically said to migrants, 'if you don't like our values, our way of life', then leave, after that it was obvious he would take votes from the PVV.

 

[redsquirrel]

Looking at the exit polling J Ed posted above is that's what the polls are showing then in your view?

 

[1%er]

Exit poll says 82% turnout apparently a record

• VVD (Liberal Party, Prime Minister Mark Rutte) recieves 31 seats, compares with 41 seats in 2012 elections
• PvdA (Labor Party, Lodewijk Asscher) recieves 9 seats, Labor took 38 seats in 2012 elections. The party is current government partner with Liberal Party
• PVV (Freedom Party, Geert Wilders) recieves 19 seats, Compares with 15 seats in 2012 elections
• SP (Socialist Party, Emile Roemer) recieves 14 seats, Compares with 15 seats in 2012 elections
• CDA (Christian Democrats, Sybrand Buma) recieves 19 seats, Compares with 13 seats in 2012 elections
• D66 (Democrats 66, Alexander Pechtold) recieves 19 seats, Compares with 12 seats in 2012 elections
• CU (Christian Union, Gert-Jan Segers) recieves 6 seats, Compares with 5 seats in 2012 elections
• GL (Green Party, Jesse Klaver) recieves 16 seats, Compares with 4 seats in 2012 elections
• SGP (Reformed Party, Kees van der Staaij) recieves 3 seats
• PvdD (Party for the Animals, Marianne Thieme) recieves 5 seats
• 50+ (50 Plus Party, Henk Krol) recieves 4 seats
• Denk recieves 3 seats
• Forum for Democracy gets 2 seats

Interesting spin in some reports claiming VVD down 10 seats is good news and PVV up 4 seats is bad news

 

[1%er]

Rutte basically said to migrants, 'if you don't like our values, our way of life', then leave, after that it was obvious he would take votes from the PVV.

Down 10 seats if the polls are correct, looks like the Dutch didn't buy his bullshit, it seems trying of out racist the racists didn't work for Rutte's VVD

Maybe not as "obvious" as you thought

 

[Anudder Oik]

Exit polls 31 seat Rutte, 19 seats Wilders. Not as scary as it could have been.

A victory for neo-liberalism all the same.

 

[Treacle Toes]

Why does Jesse Klave/ 'Jessiah' look like one of Justin Trudeau's triplet siblings?

Dutch election’s big winner proves to be GreenLeft

The 'Jessiah': the Dutch progressive trying to turn back the populist tide

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

A loss 20% of your seats for the VVD = stunning victory over 'the wrong kind of populism'
A gain of 34% for the PVV = 'A clear victory against extremism"

With the winning party having to adopt Wilders' rhetoric on immigrants and going so far as stirring up a diplomatic row with Turkey that has lead to a suspension of diplomatic relations between the two countries and may well cause the refugee deal between Turkey and the EU being scrapped.

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, tweeted: "The Netherlands, oh the Netherlands you are a champion! Congratulations on this great result"

Ehrm yeah, OK then.

 

[ViolentPanda]

A loss 20% of your seats for the VVD = stunning victory over 'the wrong kind of populism'
A gain of 34% for the PVV = 'A clear victory against extremism"

With the winning party having to adopt Wilders' rhetoric on immigrants and going so far as stirring up a diplomatic row with Turkey that has lead to a suspension of diplomatic relations between the two countries and may well cause the refugee deal between Turkey and the EU being scrapped.

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, tweeted: "The Netherlands, oh the Netherlands you are a champion! Congratulations on this great result"

Ehrm yeah, OK then.

From Germany's point of view it is a great result. A hard/far right Dutch administration would have meant much more hard right agitation in Germany itself, and an easy rally point for fascists (as Belgium was in the '70s and '80s).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Kind of sums up where we are at the moment. Relieved that the overtly racist party only made modest gains.

 

[1%er]

A loss 20% of your seats for the VVD = stunning victory over 'the wrong kind of populism'
A gain of 34% for the PVV = 'A clear victory against extremism"

With the winning party having to adopt Wilders' rhetoric on immigrants and going so far as stirring up a diplomatic row with Turkey that has lead to a suspension of diplomatic relations between the two countries and may well cause the refugee deal between Turkey and the EU being scrapped.

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, tweeted: "The Netherlands, oh the Netherlands you are a champion! Congratulations on this great result"

Ehrm yeah, OK then.

It's amazing how this "loss" by the VVD is being spun, Wilders PVV is the 2nd largest party and I can't see the Greens joining Rutte to form a government, although it is highly that he will form the next government with the CDA (Christian Democrats) and D66 (Liberal Democrats) and remain PM.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

I wonder if UK journalists will now spend as much time covering groenlinks as they have devoted to Wilders on his rise.Oh wait, GL are not visceral racists so what would be the point? Instead, our press can get back to jerking off over the Vichy Heiress.

 

[Idris2002]

jerking off over the Vichy Heiress.

Such exquisite imagery.

 

[Idris2002]

From the Cedar Lounge blog:

"My understanding is that the SP is vehemently anti-EU and has taken the position that immigration should be limited in the interests of Dutch workers. Those positions would scare off a decent number of people who would otherwise be attracted to a party positioning itself on the left end of social democracy. It also seems to have an authoritarian internal party culture with an older white male leadership group. Given its history in 1970s Maoism, there might be some parallels to the internal culture of the WP in the 1980s/early 1990s."

Anyone know anything more about this aspect of the Dutch SP?

 

[Dom Traynor]

From the Cedar Lounge blog:

"My understanding is that the SP is vehemently anti-EU and has taken the position that immigration should be limited in the interests of Dutch workers. Those positions would scare off a decent number of people who would otherwise be attracted to a party positioning itself on the left end of social democracy. It also seems to have an authoritarian internal party culture with an older white male leadership group. Given its history in 1970s Maoism, there might be some parallels to the internal culture of the WP in the 1980s/early 1990s."

Anyone know anything more about this aspect of the Dutch SP?

Not paid much attention to them recently but they have had that position on immigration for quite a while, they are actually an ex Maoist party and the CWI/Socialist Party in the Netherlands used to be a faction within it, not sure if they still are.

Their position on immigration was given before as an example of why they were more successful than other far left parties in Europe in previous elections.

 

[petee]

the name of the SP party leader in the dutch senate is Tiny Kox

 

[treelover]

Apparently, the Dutch Greens supported the 2012 Austerity programme(like the Greens in Germany backing welfare cuts), yet hundreds of thousands of 'educated young dutch' voted for them, i think we are increasingly in a post left political dispensation, unless left politics is just now seen through the prism of identity/environmental/peace politics

 

[Idris2002]

the name of the SP party leader in the dutch senate is Tiny Kox

Such exquisite imagery.

 

[1%er]

The election was on 15th March and it looks like they are finally going to get a government after 208 days (Belgian managed without one for 589 days back in 2010/11).

It seems Mark Rutte has managed to pull a 4 party coalition together, but as the liberal D66 don't appear to agree with anything the conservative Christian Union want, it seems a precarious gathering. The coalition will be made up of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the conservative Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA). the liberal D66 and the conservative Christian Union (CU).

 

[redsquirrel]

Following Italy, the Netherlands also looking at a break up of the government.

The Dutch government will decide on Friday whether to step down over an escalating scandal in which tax officials wrongly accused thousands of parents of fraud, plunging many families into debt by ordering them to repay childcare allowances.

The opposition Labour party leader, Lodewijk Asscher, who was social affairs minister in the previous government, resigned over the affair on Thursday, denying he knew the tax authority was “wrongly hunting down thousands of families” but conceding a failing system had “made the government an enemy of its people”.

The four ruling parties in Rutte’s coalition are deeply divided in their response to a damning report on the scandal but are thought to prefer ending their alliance rather than risk losing a no-confidence vote next Tuesday, after a planned parliamentary debate on the report.