Does your vote mean anything?

[weepiper]

0.041 based on 2005. Think it will be a lot closer - three, possibly four way marginal.

I think the Scottish seat predictions are wrong. A lot has changed since 2010.

 

[Maurice Picarda]

I think the Scottish seat predictions are wrong. A lot has changed since 2010.

To be fair, the site was put up with the 2010 general election in mind, and it took Fez five years to find it.

 

[brogdale]

I stumbled across voterpower.org.uk recently. It shows you how much your vote is worth. As we all know, most seats are 'safe' and the election is decided by a small number of people in marginals. How little my vote counts was quite shocking, though:

"In Leeds West, one person does not really have one vote, they have the equivalent of 0.015 votes."

"The average UK voter has 16.67x more voting power than voters in Leeds West."

"This constituency is smaller than average, which means a voter here is more likely to affect the national result."

So despite the fact that my vote should be worth more because the constituency is smaller, I still have 16x less voting power.

What's your vote worth?

 

[ska invita]

What is this lib-dem filth? Boycott their game, boycott their conversation

what voting system do you think we should have, in your vision of an ideal world?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Pretty solid Labour round here. 0.04 votes equivalent on that site, with the ward 533 out of 650 in the "voter power index".

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Thread prompted me to check joe marginal (or not) Reading East is.

Not as marginal as I'd thought.

Though a Lib Dem collapse similar to that in the locals might make things interesting if the votes go to Labour rather than the Greens.

The problem is that the Tory guy is really well liked. By all accounts, he's an amiable guy, plus he gets the "posh" caversham vote, which is blue through and through, and I haven't got a clue who the labour candidate is. Can't picture anything other than a Tory victory, myself.

Reading west is looking a bit more interesting. The sitting Tory MP is not as established as Rob Wilson, and the labour candidate, lingerie designer Victoria Groulef, is vaguely interesting. Less green support on the west, a ukip candidate (not the ever nutty Howard Thomas, who seems to have reverted back to his "Common Sense Party", after briefly joining UKIP last year) to split the Tory vote, and a decimated LD. I reckon Labour will retake that seat.

 

[blairsh]

.009 Ha!

 

[8115]

This site doesn't seem to take account of the majority.

For instance, my constituency is seen as being quite safe (0.226) as the last few elections have been won Lab, Lab, Lab, Lib but it doesn't take into account that the majority has been quite slim each time.

So a vote is quite important surely?

 

[Voley]

Yes, it's out of date. It had my constituency down as 'Ultra Safe' despite there being a swing of over 10% to the Tories at the last election.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

what voting system do you think we should have, in your vision of an ideal world?

Worker and community delegates elected under FPTP, and recallable and sitting for two year terms without renewal.

With power rising up through neighbourhoods and workplaces up via regional assemblies to a national single chamber assembly and all paid a workers wage

 

[Jon-of-arc]

I'm not trusting what that site has to say, tbh. A vote is worth a vote. I don't think you can accurately adjust its "value" in the way the site attempts, especially not when you are basing your calculations on 10 year old election results.

Plus I don't agree with its analysis of Readings two wards and their marginal/safe status.

 

[butchersapron]

what voting system do you think we should have, in your vision of an ideal world?

Well, given that my ideal world is so far removed from this one that it would entail a complete overthrow of the system that is the basis for this society (and that's not elections - that's capital and the relations it necessitates,elections are entirely secondary to that) that question is akin to asking me which cricket team i think is going to win the man city-arsenal game later.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Will people stop calling constituencies wards FFS?

 

[Onket]

Ward, ward, ward!

 

[butchersapron]

I'm not trusting what that site has to say, tbh. A vote is worth a vote. I don't think you can accurately adjust its "value" in the way the site attempts, especially not when you are basing your calculations on 10 year old election results.

Plus I don't agree with its analysis of Readings two wards and their marginal/safe status.

It's nonsense as it accords more value to votes for people whose vote didn't lead to their candidate winning than those whose vote did. And it does this on an entirely subjective basis of what constitutes wasted ( i don't mean the calculations here, i mean the political description of what this means). Are only winning votes of value? Is that all that counts? Rubbish. Naked lib-dem/guardian seize the moment vote lib-dem and they'll demand PR politicking from the months leading to the 2010 election.

 

[chilango]

The problem is that the Tory guy is really well liked. By all accounts, he's an amiable guy, plus he gets the "posh" caversham vote, which is blue through and through, and I haven't got a clue who the labour candidate is. Can't picture anything other than a Tory victory, myself.

Reading west is looking a bit more interesting. The sitting Tory MP is not as established as Rob Wilson, and the labour candidate, lingerie designer Victoria Groulef, is vaguely interesting. Less green support on the west, a ukip candidate (not the ever nutty Howard Thomas, who seems to have reverted back to his "Common Sense Party", after briefly joining UKIP last year) to split the Tory vote, and a decimated LD. I reckon Labour will retake that seat.

Rob Wilson is certainly high profile in Reading East. But it's not all positive for him ime. I've heard a fair few not especially political people slagging him off. Including people who've had dealings with him.

The Labour guy, Matt Rodda hasn't pushed himself that well, but the Labour "team" round here have been pretty actively electioneering for over a year at least. They ought to sweep up all the ex-Lib Dem votes, especially in university areas like Redlands where the LDs have literally vanished. But Rob White could be a bit of a wild card round here. He may well pick up a fair chunk of these votes and has maintained a high profile and seems well liked by everyone who mentions him.

Reading West I don't know that well, but I hear a lot from/about Groulef and it appears that she is being pushed more than Rodda is, giving an idea as to where Labour think they've more chance.

Still both seats are interesting enough to keep an eye on.

 

[butchersapron]

Seems to me that these people are demanding that 49% of votes be wasted in every single election. They want to effectively disenfranchise near half the population.

 

[chilango]

Rob Wilson is certainly high profile in Reading East. But it's not all positive for him ime. I've heard a fair few not especially political people slagging him off. Including people who've had dealings with him.

The Labour guy, Matt Rodda hasn't pushed himself that well, but the Labour "team" round here have been pretty actively electioneering for over a year at least. They ought to sweep up all the ex-Lib Dem votes, especially in university areas like Redlands where the LDs have literally vanished. But Rob White could be a bit of a wild card round here. He may well pick up a fair chunk of these votes and has maintained a high profile and seems well liked by everyone who mentions him.

Reading West I don't know that well, but I hear a lot from/about Groulef and it appears that she is being pushed more than Rodda is, giving an idea as to where Labour think they've more chance.

Still both seats are interesting enough to keep an eye on.

...and it's close enough for me to consider voting Labour.

Something I've never done before.

 

[gosub]

0.060 in Hampshire North East, down from 0.583 in Leith and I'd reckon Leith will be a lot closer than their stats allow for

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Rob Wilson is certainly high profile in Reading East. But it's not all positive for him ime. I've heard a fair few not especially political people slagging him off. Including people who've had dealings with him.

The Labour guy, Matt Rodda hasn't pushed himself that well, but the Labour "team" round here have been pretty actively electioneering for over a year at least. They ought to sweep up all the ex-Lib Dem votes, especially in university areas like Redlands where the LDs have literally vanished. But Rob White could be a bit of a wild card round here. He may well pick up a fair chunk of these votes and has maintained a high profile and seems well liked by everyone who mentions him.

Reading West I don't know that well, but I hear a lot from/about Groulef and it appears that she is being pushed more than Rodda is, giving an idea as to where Labour think they've more chance.

Still both seats are interesting enough to keep an eye on.

Just looking, and there's a UKIP guy for Reading east, as well as west. So that should spice things up a bit.

Rob Wilson certainly doesn't get any votes from anyone I know in Reading East, but that's all people in katesgrove and newtown. Cavershams just so big (25,000 people) and it's all Tory, I think, so it gives him a solid headstart. Interesting that people are slagging him not just on the basis of being a Tory, though.

Would be good to see Rob pick up a decent chunk of the ex LD vote. I think he's previously just been happy if he got his deposit back, but they greens are definitely getting a bit ambitious.

But yeah, should be interesting all round.

 

[ska invita]

Well, given that my ideal world is so far removed from this one that it would entail a complete overthrow of the system that is the basis for this society (and that's not elections - that's capital and the relations it necessitates,elections are entirely secondary to that) that question is akin to asking me which cricket team i think is going to win the man city-arsenal game later.

but voting systems would still exist i imagine? and if so there would still be only a limited number of mechanisms available...

id like to see something akin to a swiss model, with recallable delegates and proportional representation at the highest level.

Worker and community delegates elected under FPTP, and recallable and sitting for two year terms without renewal.

With power rising up through neighbourhoods and workplaces up via regional assemblies to a national single chamber assembly and all paid a workers wage

why do you prefer FPTP over Proportional Representation? Is your FPTP model the same as the existing one? Both have their shortcoming but PR seems significantly fairer to me

this is really what this thread is about - the unfairness of FPTP

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Seems to me that these people are demanding that 49% of votes be wasted in every single election. They want to effectively disenfranchise near half the population.

The smaller the winners share of the vote, the less all opposing votes "count", if I'm understanding the way the guys calculating things right.

 

[butchersapron]

this is really what this thread is about - the unfairness of FPTP

To the lib-dems. That's what it (the site and related campaigns) was about.

 

[bemused]

My vote is worth six times less than the UK average. My comedy option of voting for UKIP and annoying the wife has been scupper when Farage turned out to be a bit more of a wanker than I'd initially taken him for. So I'm going to have to vote Green or one of the Jesus parties now.

 

[chilango]

Just looking, and there's a UKIP guy for Reading east, as well as west. So that should spice things up a bit.

Rob Wilson certainly doesn't get any votes from anyone I know in Reading East, but that's all people in katesgrove and newtown. Cavershams just so big (25,000 people) and it's all Tory, I think, so it gives him a solid headstart. Interesting that people are slagging him not just on the basis of being a Tory, though.

Would be good to see Rob pick up a decent chunk of the ex LD vote. I think he's previously just been happy if he got his deposit back, but they greens are definitely getting a bit ambitious.

But yeah, should be interesting all round.

Wonder how UKIP will do in places like Caversham and Woodley?

 

[butchersapron]

The smaller the winners share of the vote, the less all opposing votes "count", if I'm understanding the way the guys calculating things right.

Yep - so they demand that all winners must have 51% support - what this means is just renaming the wasted votes as useful votes by forcing people to list preferences. And once someone gets 51% then the fuck the rest of the votes, don't even need to continue counting them - effectively making 49% of votes who for and against the winner wasted.

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Wonder how UKIP will do in places like Caversham and Woodley?

I know my mums planning on voting UKIP. They've not really campaigned, from what I've seen, and have no local "base" to speak of, but their national profile is so strong that they could easily pick up a healthy %. Wouldn't be that surprised if they beat the greens, based upon fuck all work.

 

[chilango]

I know my mums planning on voting UKIP. They've not really campaigned, from what I've seen, and have no local "base" to speak of, but their national profile is so strong that they could easily pick up a healthy %. Wouldn't be that surprised if they beat the greens, based upon fuck all work.

I wouldn't be surprised to see UKIP pick up a decent vote in Woodley.

 

[chilango]

...whether they beat the Greens or not will maybe depend on how much of the soft Green vote in Redlands/Park/Newtown etc. goes to Labour tactically.

 

[Jon-of-arc]

I wouldn't be surprised to see UKIP pick up a decent vote in Woodley.

I'm not sure what the woodley landscape looks like, tbh. Cos it technically falls under Wokingham, about as safe a Tory seat as you can get - Redwoods been there as long as I remember - I tend not to notice it so much. Woodley does feel a bit like a slice of Kent dolloped right in the middle of Berkshire, though, so you could be on to something.

Interestingly, when I googled "john redwood", a suggested search term was " John redwood UKIP". What odds are the bookies giving him on defecting? E2a - not a likely defector, it seems.