Does this map of the oilfields tell us anything about the purpose of the Afghan War?

[army_of_one]

Ah.

 

[kyser_soze]

Just to fill you in...on one of the epic 9/11 threads, one of the posters made the argument that a pipeline project had been in the works for a long time, and this was also one of the reasons that the US was setting up military bases all over the 'stans - to protect the pipelines - and that this was a possible motivating factor in 'elements' being involved in 9/11.

The reason I describe it as 'marginally more credible' is that it has the ring of truth about it in terms of an actual real politik aim, rather than the ideological nonsense of PNAC, for example.

 

[Ralph Masters]

When I posted this thread I didn't even notice the pipeline, I was more interested in the strategic importance of Afghanistan as a base to attack the oilfields in the Caucasus, it would seem to be the only logical reason to occupy Afghanistan. In Iraq the invading tropps are largely off the streets, but the airbases are stronger than ever, could a similar picture unfold in Afghanistan?

 

[yield]

Looks like all those American bases are encircling one country to me?

 

[Ralph Masters]

I don't think the Americans are thinking country, culture or politics, just OIL

 

[Pickman's model]

It looks like a plan for the invasion of Russian oilfields to me. Maybe the government would get more support if it came clean, but it surely would be a major strategic blunder.

out of curiosity, did this come as news to you? which would be surprising given that it was common knowledge down our way eight years ago.

 

[Pickman's model]

You're definitely my favourite for newbie fuckwit of the year.

^^^ this

 

[yield]

I don't think the Americans are thinking country, culture or politics, just OIL

The New Great Game

Many authors and analysts view this new "game" as centering around regional petroleum politics. Now, instead of competing for actual control over a geographic area, "pipelines, tanker routes, petroleum consortiums, and contracts are the prizes of the new Great Game".

 

[DogorKat?]

How can that be when:

• 9/11 cost the US billions
• staying in Afghanistan is costing billions more
• to build the pipeline would cost still more billions
• the cost of protecting it after invasion would mean ever more billions

billions that are earned by companies like Blackwater, Lockheed Martin, etc

 

[Ralph Masters]

I wonder how many people support the idea of the west occupying the oilfields in this region, I suspect more and more westerners will come round to it as oil becomes more expensive. It's certainly logical but not necessarily immediately popular with people who were brought up with the idea that war was to defend our freedom, now we're supposed to support a war for greed.

Was Afghanistan a response to 9/11? Was it a humanitarian mission? Was it because of the drugs situation?

Is it about protecting our streets or our bellies?

 

[david dissadent]

Afghanistan as a base to attack the oilfields in the Caucasus, it would seem to be the only logical reason to occupy Afghanistan.

The Caucus oil? Kashagan is the only really significant new oil field in the region and that is more the Caspian than Caucasus', the other oil fields in that general area are older and well depleted. Why would America want to attack an oil field? And given Turkey is about a 1000 miles closer to the Caucasus than Afghanistan it seems pretty mental to attack Baku via Bagram.

I am guessing you meant to talk about central Asian gas, or at least the hypothised gas of central asia. And I can see no reason to attack the gas fields. At best the theory might be to protect a hypothetical gas pipeline out of the central Asian stans to the Pakistani coast, but I have already suggested that may be a fools errand.

And by the way the US already has basing rights in some of the stans, they gained this after 911 but where does this fit into your world view?

 

[david dissadent]

Was Afghanistan a response to 9/11?

You think the timing was a coincidence!

 

[david dissadent]

Anyone who wants to be mega bored can have a look at Khazakastans gas pipeline projects on page 71 of this document.

http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/NG25.pdf

Sadly no plans for pipelines through Afghanistan there.

Just the Turkmenostan to India proposed pipeline. The yanks must sure love the Indians if they have invaded Afghanistant to help them build a gas pipeline.

 

[free spirit]

How can that be when:

• 9/11 cost the US billions
• staying in Afghanistan is costing billions more
• to build the pipeline would cost still more billions
• the cost of protecting it after invasion would mean ever more billions
  
  
  

you're confusing what's actually happened with what those of a PNAC mindset thought actually would happen following the invasion. Remember that the original invasion actually involved only a very limited number of US special forces on the ground, and was largely a CIA led affair based on buying off local warlords, and supplying, equiping and providing air support and satellite intelligence to The Northern Alliance & the bought off warlords to enable them to destroy the Taliban at least in the North & West of the country... coincidentally (?), the route of the pipeline.

If things had gone to plan, the northern alliance and associated bought off warlords with minimal US military support would have taken over and controlled the full pipeline route, guaranteed security for the pipeline to be built for relatively low cost compared to the $2.5 billion predicted cost of building the oil pipeline.

The fact that this proved hopelessly optimistic, and it's ended up becoming a huge mess sucking in huge military and financial resources shouldn't be taken as proof that those who initiated the war weren't doing it at least in part to secure this pipeline route/punish the Taliban for not allowing the pipline to be built. It also doesn't seem to have done any of the PNACers any real harm, as war is good for their business interests.

IMO it's also not a coincidence that US interest in Afghanistan began to wane around the time that construction started on the alternative Bakha-Tiblisi-Ceyhan pipline in April 2003.