Derren Brown: The Event Live (Wed. 9th on C4)

[Obnoxiousness]

Shallow maths, I can pretty much do in my head. But deep mathematics, even when equipped with my trusty Texas Instruments scientific calculator, I simply cannot grasp.

e2a:

It's like deep sea fishing... you need to strap yourself to the boat, as well as using a thicker rod.

 

[quimcunx]

Please don't blame yourself. You are not alone.

You have been terribly let down by the education system.

 

[teecee]

Hmm was Derren been practicing in Bulgaria first, hoping no-one would notice?

Can this be explained by deep maths?

Or is it all just an unfathomable coincidence?



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8259801.stm

 

[Paul Russell]

Hmm was Derren been practicing in Bulgaria first, hoping no-one would notice?

Can this be explained by deep maths?

Or is it all just an unfathomable coincidence?



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8259801.stm

"A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million."

I suppose with all the lotteries going on every week, it's going to happen in the end.

 

[maomao]

"A mathematician said the chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row was one in four million."

I suppose with all the lotteries going on every week, it's going to happen in the end.

The chance of it happening is exactly the same as the chance of any one ticket winning. Which happens regularly, so not that odd really.

 

[kabbes]

The chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row without specifying in advance what those numbers must be is a great deal bigger than the chance of any one ticket winning.

 

[maomao]

The chance of the same six numbers coming up twice in a row without specifying in advance what those numbers must be is a great deal bigger than the chance of any one ticket winning.

Why? Surely it's the same as buying a lucky dip and then winning. Two random choices. If you specified them in advance the chances would be much lower, 1 in 14 squared rather than 1 in 14 million.

 

[kabbes]

Why? Surely it's the same as buying a lucky dip and then winning. Two random choices.

It depends on exactly how the question is phrased. It could easily be the difference between the probability of two people in a room sharing a birthday and the probability that somebody in the room shares your birthday.

 

[ymu]

The chance of it happening is exactly the same as the chance of any one ticket winning. Which happens regularly, so not that odd really.

Yes. No. The odds are the same, but there are nowhere near as many lotteries being run as there are lottery tickets being bought each week, so the same numbers coming up twice in a row will be considerably rarer than the someone winning the lottery in any one week.

But yeah, run enough lotteries and it'll happen somewhere, eventually. We don't mentally keep tally of all the times we were not amazed to see the numbers being different each week, so it seems extraordinary when it happens.

 

[quimcunx]

My friend just phoned me! I hadn't been thinking about her at all in the last couple of days.

 

[ymu]

It depends on exactly how the question is phrased. It could easily be the difference between the probability of two people in a room sharing a birthday and the probability that somebody in the room shares your birthday.

Yeah. The chance of it happening in any one lottery are the same as any one set of numbers winning. The chances of it happening in any one of the lotteries running worldwide in any one week are much much higher.

Not sure it's analogous to the birthdays paradox though. For that, we'd have to be looking at the chance of the same numbers coming up in two different lotteries. That would be a much more common occurrence.

 

[teecee]

The chance of it happening is exactly the same as the chance of any one ticket winning. Which happens regularly, so not that odd really.

But things like this shouldn't happen - same reason we've never had 1,2,3,4,5,6 come up


Although I am being a bit flippant and actually have no problems with coincidences happenings - if there weren't any that would be worrying .... but this case just goes to show how little people do understand about these things - same number come up two weeks in a row (in a different order though) so there must be something wrong - lets have an investigation.

Although there must be people out there who think it will happen as 18 people bought tickets with the same numbers that had just been drawn -although this might be the reason it needs investigating

 

[internetstalker]

My friend just phoned me! I hadn't been thinking about her at all in the last couple of days.

Some deep maths going on there

 

[kabbes]

To be fair, if a lottery machine turns up the same numbers for two weeks in a row, that is reasonable grounds for investigating that nothing untoward is happening. The probability of a fix is at least comparable with the probability of the event.

 

[Ranbay]

DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP MATHS !!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSTRE58H4AM20090918

 

[strung out]

DEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP MATHS !!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idUSTRE58H4AM20090918

derren brown guessing the numbers was probably a coincidence too then