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Could coronavirus be Trump's downfall?

elbows said:
His re-election sales pitch was all about bragging about the markets and the economy. In this respect, his rhetoric was not opposite to bankers etc at all.
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Yes it was. It was a position of making the economy work for the people rather than the swamp (however true or untrue that is). Populisms support is based not on what is being argued but on how populists are willing to break from liberalism
elbows said:
I'm pretty sure he will make huge mistakes because his life taught him that blagging and bullying was the keys to success. But the virus cannot be bullied or successfully lied to.
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This is a pretty facile analysis of recent electoral success of populism. At this moment I'm unsure whether Trump will be re-elected or not but the underlying material causes of populism have not disappeared or even really diminished and I think it would be extremely foolish to write him off.
 
I havent written him off, I am just saying that he is in a completely different situation to the one he thought he was going to have, far beyond his comfort zone, and all his instincts involve stuff that could really backfire.

Nor am I predicting the death of populism. However, lets not confuse populism with those that have made the best use of it so far. It can turn on individuals and parties. Populism could yet increase but in a way that Trump is no longer in a position to harness. Indeed some of the things Trump might unleash now with his terrible messages about this virus might end up devouring him.

Anyway, part of the reason for his shitty messages about this virus are that the appropriate response will also hammer his own business empires interests.

Actually thinking about it I might as well go out on a limb a little and say yes, despite people becoming used to Trump being immune to all manner of shit that would destroy most politicians, I will go ahead and make the claim that this pandemic will finish him.
 
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elbows said:
It can turn on individuals and parties. Populism could yet increase but in a way that Trump is no longer in a position to harness. Indeed some of the things Trump might unleash now with his terrible messages about this virus might end up devouring him.
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That I do agree with.
 
elbows said:
I havent written him off, I am just saying that he is in a completely different situation to the one he thought he was going to have, far beyond his comfort one, and all his instincts involve stuff that could really backfire.

Nor am I predicting the death of populism. However, lets not confuse populism with those that have made the best use of it so far. It can turn on individuals and parties. Populism could yet increase but in a way that Trump is no longer in a position to harness. Indeed some of the things Trump might unleash now with his terrible messages about this virus might end up devouring him.

Anyway, part of the reason for his shitty messages about this virus are that the appropriate response will also hammer his own business empires interests.

Actually thinking about it I might as well go out on a limb a little and say yes, despite people becoming used to Trump being immune to all manner of shit that would destroy most politicians, I will go ahead and make the claim that this pandemic will finish him.
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Will this virus also politically finish Boris, Xi Jinping, Sergio Mattarella etc then?
 
Marty1 said:
Will this virus also politically finish Boris, Xi Jinping, Sergio Mattarella etc then?
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If it does, this wont be the thread for it.

There are all sorts of potential consequences in different countries. Some might be easier to predict than others. I predict trouble for Trump specifically because of the idiotic things he has been saying since this virus became a very big deal, and because of the obvious failings in response (eg testing) in the USA so far, and because of the election cycle timing, and what he intended to brag about during that election campaign. And for that matter, the shabby state of his regime in terms of staff, and the fact that pandemic preparedness stuff was one of the Obama-era things he cut. And because his instincts will probably be to throw more people under the bus in the months ahead, and I reckon that sort of thing does catch up to even Trump-level scum eventually.

There is supposed to be a somewhat different front and tone that presidents put on at moments of great national distress, and Trump is severely lacking in the ability to do that. He can do it in small doses (and with zero enthusiasm) during fully scripted performances, but as soon as he gets a chance he normally reverts to type and his own message.

Him as president is a nightmare for established statecraft. During a pandemic it becomes an even more absurd proposition. Maybe he will yet find a special Trump way to deal with this situation in a way that doesnt lead to his demise, but I will stick to my prediction anyway.
 
elbows said:
Him as president is a nightmare for established statecraft.
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And yes I know thats a huge part of the appeal of him to his base in the first place. But given the dangerous ways in which he attempts to promote and make use of such things during relatively normal times, I think there is a large risk of this quickly going beyond all safe parameters when the backdrop is a major emergency of this sort. People might either go too far with where they take some of the 'deep state' ideas to under pandemic conditions, or they might retreat away from such views because they've become an unsustainable luxury under the current circumstances.
 
the reason that trump is fucked, and the reason that people may not believe it yet, are the same = like him, you underestimate how bad this is going to get. trump cannot handle a disaster of this scale. within weeks the american healthcare system will be under severe strain, and trump will be able to do nothing about it without completely ruining the economy. he's entrenching himself as a denialist here, like climate change, but this won't take decades to reach disastrous consequences. the spread of coronoavirus in the USA will probably eclipse china in terms of total cases by June. and for all his efforts to pin this on Pence as the guy in charge of managing the situation, i don't think he's gonna get away with it this time.
 
steveseagull said:
Christ... that press conference.
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Oh no have I missed another one? I did a good job of avoiding listening to Trump speak for years, but in this situation I've felt compelled to pay attention to every stupid word. Off to watch a replay of it now, thanks for the tipoff!
 
Oh he still wants people to travel to certain locations. Shame space tourism hasnt really got going yet eh.
 
They are so on the back foot over all the mistakes of recent weeks. A lot of the tone is defensive and they have to hark back quite a long way to find something to crow about. Unless they are very lucky, the testing shambles and other failings will be pinned to whatever scale of outbreaks the USA has.
 
two sheds said:
If trump gets it will people avoid going to all his hotels?
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I dont know but as Trump left the press conference early the reporters were shouting questions at him about whether he had been tested. They didnt get an answer, Pence said he would get back to them on that, and told them that he (Pence) had not been tested.

Trump will try to have more fun tomorrow with the big economic announcements. I suppose thats one way they could try to get something Trump-compatible out of this, he will try to brag about how well he is propping up the economy.

Its quite surreal to hear the words that circumstances now demand they speak, words that indicate that they've realised that all the decades of deliberately fostering job insecurity means many Americans wont feel like taking time off work when they are sick, so now they are going to have to try to reverse that mindset, and do something special for zero-hour contract workers etc.
 
yep - and the costs of having tests, and the costs of preventive hospitalization, and the costs of medicines ....
 
Marty1 said:
Will this virus also politically finish Boris, Xi Jinping, Sergio Mattarella etc then?
Click to expand...
Why would it? Have you been reading elbows' posts? Trump has cut all manner of disaster contingency plans. Politically, it's not about there being a crisis, it's about how you handle that crisis. Doing well in a crisis can strengthen a politician. But doing badly can finish them off.
 
Please note that I'm not Jon Sopel!

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: A problem unlike anything else Trump has faced

The coronavirus crisis is testing the US president, who wants the markets to thrive all the time.
www.bbc.co.uk

And every time the Dow Jones or the S&P 500 hits a new high, he tweets to celebrate it. 280 times to be exact. In other words, roughly once every four days of his presidency he has exalted the markets.
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But the coronavirus is quantitatively and qualitatively different from anything he has faced. With the Robert Mueller investigation (remember that?), there were names. People: Lyin' Jim Comey, Bob Mueller, little Jeff Sessions, Michael Cohen, Andrew McCabe etc. And during the impeachment trial there was a whole host of people that Donald Trump could swing a haymaking left hook at: shifty Schiff, nervous Nancy, cryin' Chuck Schumer. As Donald Trump will tell you, he's a great counter-puncher.

But how do you hit a virus? Who's to blame? Who's the guilty party? Who do you tweet at? Covid-19 doesn't have a Twitter account.
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Last Friday, he went to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention - the epicentre of the fight against coronavirus - wearing a Keep America Great campaign hat, and said that there were tests available for every American who needed one. There aren't. So far only around 1,500 Americans have been tested - compared to over 20,000 in the UK with a fifth of the population.
Click to expand...
 
elbows said:
I dont know but as Trump left the press conference early the reporters were shouting questions at him about whether he had been tested. They didnt get an answer, Pence said he would get back to them on that, and told them that he (Pence) had not been tested.

Trump will try to have more fun tomorrow with the big economic announcements. I suppose thats one way they could try to get something Trump-compatible out of this, he will try to brag about how well he is propping up the economy.

Its quite surreal to hear the words that circumstances now demand they speak, words that indicate that they've realised that all the decades of deliberately fostering job insecurity means many Americans wont feel like taking time off work when they are sick, so now they are going to have to try to reverse that mindset, and do something special for zero-hour contract workers etc.
Click to expand...

Payroll tax cut seems encouraging and talk as you mention of assisting zero hour workers though nothing specific yet.

One thing I did read somewhere recently was that they (US) aren’t screening people entering the US for the virus from certain countries - rather relying on the countries of origin authorities screening before they leave - I’d have thought it prudent to screen on both sides?
 
Marty1 said:
Payroll tax cut seems encouraging and talk as you mention of assisting zero hour workers though nothing specific yet.

One thing I did read somewhere recently was that they (US) aren’t screening people entering the US for the virus from certain countries - rather relying on the countries of origin authorities screening before they leave - I’d have thought it prudent to screen on both sides?
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It's interesting that one of Trump's very few standard responses to anything is to cut taxes. I can't see how that could possibly go wrong a year or two down the line...
 
Marty1 said:
Payroll tax cut seems encouraging and talk as you mention of assisting zero hour workers though nothing specific yet.

One thing I did read somewhere recently was that they (US) aren’t screening people entering the US for the virus from certain countries - rather relying on the countries of origin authorities screening before they leave - I’d have thought it prudent to screen on both sides?
Click to expand...
That kind of thinking is why you're a lowly driver and not president of the united States of america
 
existentialist said:
It's interesting that one of Trump's very few standard responses to anything is to cut taxes. I can't see how that could possibly go wrong a year or two down the line...
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He's a Republican, cutting taxes and fortifying the border are pretty much the only ways he knows how to respond to a domestic crisis. Maybe if it gets much worse he'll consider dealing with it by banning abortion.
 
Clearly Trump talking bollocks on its own is unlikely to hit him much, but when that is combined with what has been a clusterfuck of a response to dealing with the problem, that could be a game changer.

Anyway, the complete chaos over testing continues, and no one knows exactly how many tests have been carried out, only that the figure is very low, and no where near enough.

Nearly two weeks after the new coronavirus was first found to be spreading among Americans, the United States remains dangerously limited in its capacity to test people for the illness, an ongoing investigation from The Atlantic has found.


After surveying of local data from across the country, we can only verify that 4,384 people have been tested for the coronavirus nationwide, as of today at 4 p.m. eastern. These data are as comprehensive a compilation of official statistics as currently possible.
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When researchers have used statistical and genetic techniques to estimate the true size of the outbreak, they have concluded that thousands of Americans may have already been infected by the beginning of the month.

www.theatlantic.com

The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Continue

Without adequate testing, people with coronavirus symptoms are left to agonize over the right course of action on their own.
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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And, about 2 weeks ago Trump was saying there would be zero cases by now. :facepalm:
 
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