the govt did make a case that women shouldnt be jailed for such non-payments of debts recently, I presume that this drop follows from tht .
Now. Why would a Government (one with a Minister for Women, but without a Minister for Men, for example) do that, I wonder? I would be genuinely interested in yours (or anyone elses) views of the case for making an exception on the basis of gender for punishment of non-payment of fines.
it is that women are more likely to receive a custodial sentence on first offence than men are.
Sit down with a cup of tea and a pencil and paper and think this one through, will you, before you embarrass yourself any further. The thought experiment is to start with a prison population in which the male/female ratio of first offences is 50/50 and there is an equal likelyhood to re-offend. On each subsequent re-offence, award a custodial sentence to the male and a non-custodial sentence to the female, simulating a cultural bias against males. Over a period of time, the male/female first offence ratio of the imprisoned population will fall, and the proportion of males to females will [edited]rise, which is exactly the situation you observe. This will happen even if the starting ratio is lower, and the likelyhood to re-offend is not equal (the time constant to reach a given propotion will vary instead).
You have, I'm afraid, shot yourself well and truly in the foot with this ill-thought through appeal to statistics.
Now. Why would a Government (one with a Minister for Women, but without a Minister for Men, for example) do that, I wonder? I would be genuinely interested in yours (or anyone elses) views of the case for making an exception on the basis of gender for punishment of non-payment of fines.
it is that women are more likely to receive a custodial sentence on first offence than men are.
Sit down with a cup of tea and a pencil and paper and think this one through, will you, before you embarrass yourself any further. The thought experiment is to start with a prison population in which the male/female ratio of first offences is 50/50 and there is an equal likelyhood to re-offend. On each subsequent re-offence, award a custodial sentence to the male and a non-custodial sentence to the female, simulating a cultural bias against males. Over a period of time, the male/female first offence ratio of the imprisoned population will fall, and the proportion of males to females will [edited]rise, which is exactly the situation you observe. This will happen even if the starting ratio is lower, and the likelyhood to re-offend is not equal (the time constant to reach a given propotion will vary instead).
You have, I'm afraid, shot yourself well and truly in the foot with this ill-thought through appeal to statistics.

