Call the next election

[DotCommunist]

The lone voice in the wilderness crying 'Clegg! Clegg! Harken unto him!'

 

[Haller]

I predict an effect similar to 1992 where people look at what they're about to vote for and go 'oh my God no' at the last minute.

This sounds more like hope than expectation. Cameron isn't Kinnock.

 

[Azrael]

If Mr Cameron goes on stage and announces "Let sunshine rule the day!" on the eve of the election, it'll equal Baron Kinnock's 1992 Sheffield performance.

 

[tbaldwin]

I thought Labour did badly at their conference. Rows of empty seats and mostly dull speeches. But if anything i think the Tories have done worse, the policy to ban all pay rises for anyone over £18,000 in the public sector might actually make the next election quite close after all. Just seems to be very illthought through politically and economically. And surely George Osbourne was already a vote loser.

 

[Zeppo]

I think there is a good sixties song for this Wipeout. New Labour are going to get a kicking.

 

[Rod Sleeves]

Greens to win Brighton Pavilion and maybe Norwich South

I really don't think the Greens will win any seats they will do well, and may even get a not too shabby second place in Brighton - but I doubt they will get above third really.

 

[butchersapron]

I think the Greens have a great chance this time is Brighton Pavillion - this summary of part of the PoliticsHome marginals polls appeared on uk polling report last week:

Support for minor parties

In most areas the narrowing of the Conservative lead isn’t due to any vast increase in Labour support, but a shift from the Conservatives to “others”. That is, incidentally probably the reason why the seaside towns group is so bad for them – because others are up by 11 points, almost all that to the Greens. The uniform swing in that group is enough for the Greens to take Brighton Pavilion (and given that the support for the Greens is probably actually concentrated in the Brighton seats rather than all the seaside towns polls, that’s probably a very good sign indeed for them in that seat).

 

[Rod Sleeves]

Hmm, I agree with politicshome on the Libdems, and I think the prediction for the Tories is at the upper end of acceptable, so fair enough - I think though that they add enough caveats themselves, and fairplay for their honesty about how dangerous it is to break their predictions down to single seats.

 

[embree]

This sounds more like hope than expectation. Cameron isn't Kinnock.

41% in the polls now, it won't go higher between now and polling day. With the Lib Dems getting their usual 3% or so bounce in the polls during the campaign itself, I don't think they'll get enough for a huge majority. A small one maybe, but not a big one.

I really don't think the Greens will win any seats they will do well, and may even get a not too shabby second place in Brighton - but I doubt they will get above third really.

Nope, they're going to win in Brighton. They were second last time, topped the poll in the Euros and are the party the anti-Labour vote will line up behind.

 

[Meltingpot]

I think it'll be a Tory majority, though a small one (twentyish) like the Major government secured in 1992 - but with a much smaller overall vote which Cameron will do his best to distract the public from.

 

[embree]

Bearing in mind that to win the Tories have to secure the biggest swing since 1931, I still say it's up for grabs. Especially if all those urban Lib Dem seats start staying Lib Dem

 

[butchersapron]

Bearing in mind that to win the Tories have to secure the biggest swing since 1931, I still say it's up for grabs. Especially if all those urban Lib Dem seats start staying Lib Dem

Yes, here's a useful tool that demonstrates how it's by no means a done deal. If you put in the latest averages across the polls (40% tory/ 28% labour/19% LD) you get a tory majority of 36. If you alter it slightly, say T 38, L 30, LD 18 you have a hung parliament with the tories 17 short. 2.2 more points recovery from labour from there without T or LD dropping (easily do-able if they recover a big chunk of labour stay-aways never mind taking them off tories or lib-dems) you get labour as big as the tories. These rises and falls happen regularly.

 

[embree]

Yes, here's a useful tool that demonstrates how it's by no means a done deal. If you put in the latest averages across the polls (40% tory/ 28% labour/19% LD) you get a tory majority of 36. If you alter it slightly, say T 38, L 30, LD 18 you have a hung parliament with the tories 17 short. 2.2 more points recovery from labour from there without T or LD dropping (easily do-able if they recover a big chunk of labour stay-aways never mind taking them off tories or lib-dems) you get labour as big as the tories. These rises and falls happen regularly.

exactly, there's an awful lot of assumptions being made at a time when the holes in Tory policy are becoming apparent. Dislike of the incumbent government alone isn't enough, the prospective government have to provide something solid themselves and it's here that I see them falling down, now and over the next six months or so.

 

[lewislewis]

Not going to notice much change regardless of who wins, but the Tories will be sweeping to power unfortunately.

I'd like to see- SNP do well and get 30% or so of the Scottish vote, Plaid to get 20% of the Welsh vote, 5 seats and their best ever General Election, and the Greens to get their first MP in Brighton Pavillion.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

I predict a landslide for the banking oligarchs. The numbers regarding political parties is flim-flam by contrast.

 

[Combustible]

Agreed, though as I said I think it is unlikely (not impossible), for the reason you give -mass opposition from lots of the Lib Dem Rank and file.

Clegg would undoubtedly like to jump in with the Tories. If forming a coalition is untenable because of the rank and file then I imagine a defacto coalition would occur with the Lib Dems being prepared to support most of what a minority Tory government wants. Although that would restrict their ability to get the cabinet seats they covet so much.

 

[Rod Sleeves]

I don't think it is unthinkable for the Libdems to join a coalition with the Tories, the promise of a couple or three cabinet seats would be a powerful hook, especially if Clegg was offered Deputy PM, but they are far more likely to facilitate a minority government, so they can escape any blame for the no doubt worsening economic situation, at the same time as backing most of the cuts and tax rises as quietly as possible.

 

[butchersapron]

Call it now then.

 

[Fedayn]

the policy to ban all pay rises for anyone over £18,000 in the public sector might actually make the next election quite close after all.

Right up your street eh balders?

 

[tbaldwin]

Call it now then.

Bleedin difficult...The Tories are begining to lopok really desperate and if the likes of the Sun lose confidence in them who knows....They have really fucked up recently and should stop trying to BULLY Gordon Brown its clearly not working.

 

[kabbes]

I'm happy with my original selection.

 

[tbaldwin]

Right up your street eh balders?

Nope but if you said 70 it would be....Tim nice but dim.....