Neppy is right to note that the Bolivarian revolution is underpinned by oil wealth - something that isn't true of Wales. We also shouldn't romanticise Venezuela. Despite the achievements of the Bolivarian revolution, over half the population still live in poverty.
But there is more fundamental point that Niclas and the other idolisers of Chavez miss.
What is driving the shift leftwards? What underpins the election of Chavez and Morales?
It is a massive upsurge of class struggle
from below in those countries. When Chavez was first elected he would have probably headed down the Lula route of compromise with the IMF/World Bank, but after the attempted coup the people rose up to re-instate him, it has been this erruption of the poor and workers onto the political stage in Venezuela that has shifted Chavez to the left and which is driving the process. Indeed, in many ways while Chavez symbolises this struggle he is also in some ways an obstacle to further progress and taking further the revolutionary process. His government includes many right wing figures and a corrupt bureaucracy, increasingly he talks "anti-imperialist" in order to gloss over the class divisions within Venezuela.
What led to the election of Evo Morales? It was a reflection of the "June Days" in 2005, an unprecedented combative working class movement. Striking miners marching on the capital with sticks of dynamite saying "give us what we demand or we will blow the whole city up". As leading British marxist theoretician Chris Harman put it:
Chris Harman said:
"Reports paint a picture like that of Petrograd in the summer of 1917, Berlin in January 1919, Barcelona in the autumn of 1936. They tell of general strikes; of columns of peasants marching on the city; of the occupation of oil wells and airports; of striking miners handing sticks of gelignite to striking teachers to throw against police lines; of attempts to invade the presidential palace; of threats by petrocapitalists in the east of the country to secede from the state; of workers in La Paz chanting, 'Civil war, yes!'; of the congress replacing the president while intimidated by huge, angry crowds.
In fact, Evo Morales actually defused much of the popular rebellion away from a revolutionary situation into safe reformist channels.
The point is in Wales, the far left and labour movement are incredibly weak. An independent Wales wouldn't be driven by class struggle from below like in Latin America, the only thing that could prevent neoliberal compromise with the world system.
In fact, Rhys's embracing of nationalism actually reflects despair. The labour movement has experienced defeat after defeat for the last 20 years. Many people don't believe that left wing struggle from below can ever revive and therefore look for crumbs from capitalism's table. The same argument that we hear from Niclas and Rhys about Welsh independence we hear from Rhodri Morgan, that Welsh Labour is different from New Labour. Yes, Welsh Labour have delivered a few minor reforms but 1 in 3 children in Wales are below the poverty line and they can't really challenge neoliberalism in any effect way.
And let's not forget that Niclas is a member of Plaid, a party utterly wedded to neoliberalism. Plaid pose as Old Labour (in South Wales) but offer the same solutions to Wales's problems as New Labour albeit with a nationalist twist, if they ever got their grubby hands on power we would see the transformation of Wales into a low wage economy and the rapid ditching of any "socialist" policies that they put forward in opposition. Plaid see Welsh business as more progressive than foreign business, while wanting to slash corporation tax and open up the poorest areas of Wales to multinationals, reflecting Adam Price's belief that the solution to poverty is . . . exploitation.
It takes as it's model capitalist Ireland whose celtic tiger economy is built on massive tax breaks for millionaires and multinationals and huge indirect taxation on the poor, where even at the height of the boom one-third of children lived below the poverty line. Ireland where the government carries out all the same neoliberal attacks on workers as the Westminster government (remember the attempted "Bin tax").
New Labour and Plaid Cymru are two pigs in the same trough, two sides of the same coin.
By the way, have Plaid decided which party they are going to be in coalition with next year? Will it be the Neo-Liberal Democrats? (as Adam Price would like), the Tories? (as some of the old leadership are prepared to contemplate), or New Labour? (as your deputy leader wants)