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building a revolutionary org

JoeBlack said:
strikes2.gif


There is a lot of building on sand here.

Edite to add - that was my first time adding a graphic so I didn't know it would work. Sorry to be a boring old empericist but the SWP downturn theory followed by the 1990's revolution in our time hype has no relationship to what it claims to speak of - the level of working class struggle in Britain. That table is from http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/labourmarket/strikes.htm

You can argue (rightly) that struggle is not measured by strikes alone but in that case you need to point at struggles occuring post '93 that more than compensated for those of the 1980's.

The graph seems to indicate a 'down turn' to me...
 
butchersapron said:
Both periods in which the defining charateristics as outlined by Callinicos existed - and in a more acute form. Which would logically make the 1930s merley the 1910s slowed down, and the 1990s the slowed down 1910s played at slow motion. That's the silly sort of knots you end up in by predicting that the future will just be another version of the past. (It's also very unmarxist - or at least, not very dialectical).

Ah, I see, and yeah, you're right.
 
rebel warrior said:
The graph seems to indicate a 'down turn' to me...

Yeah but if you read my post you'd see my point is not whether the down turn theory is right or wrong as a explanation for the real drop off in struggle. I've left that to CR to obcess about.

My point was where the hell is the upturn that the SWP reckoned started to emerge in Oct 92. I get that its meant to be slow motion thing but after 12 years you'd expect some sort of blip to start to show.

The bigger argument is that both downturn and upturn/slow mo theories were invented too serve the needs to the party - this is much clearer in relation to the upturn.
 
butchersapron said:
Both periods in which the defining charateristics as outlined by Callinicos existed - and in a more acute form. Which would logically make the 1930s merley the 1910s slowed down, and the 1990s the slowed down 1910s played at slow motion. That's the silly sort of knots you end up in by predicting that the future will just be another version of the past. (It's also very unmarxist - or at least, not very dialectical).

Marxist dialectico-spazzwhackery history sounds awful anyway.

Feudal societies like parts of Pakistan have to become properly capitalist.
Workers must experience state socialism before pure communism.

And it's absurd claiming that capitalism will be destroyed by bigger and bigger monopoly companies.

It makes no sense anyway it's bonkers.

Downturns and upturns are a load of nonsense.
People have all kinds of different political concerns that they are struggling with and that manifest themselves in different ways. Usually the most important is being convinced that an anrchist/socialist society could work in the future and not lead to Bonaprtism which is what communism was described as a recipe for pre-world war i.
 
JoeBlack said:
My point was where the hell is the upturn that the SWP reckoned started to emerge in Oct 92. I get that its meant to be slow motion thing but after 12 years you'd expect some sort of blip to start to show.
.

The theory though was looking at Europe, not just Britain. The fact in in France in 1995, and in Italy and other places, there have been mass strikes...
 
The above graph only indicates the number of stoppages, it says nothing whatsoever about the size of duration of those strikes. The actual number of days lost to strikes during this period,a far more accurate measure demonstrates the exact opposite - and we must bear in mind that Cliff first proposed that the downturn was clearly in existence around 74-75 i.e in a period of rising strikes and industrial conflict.

strikes1.gif
 
Fair enough. So I don't piss off the editor for starting another S. W. P. thread I'll post this here. BUT. I think people have to acknowledge, we all have such well established ideologies it is very unlikely we are going to agree. So instead of concentrating about what we disagree, can we not discuss a few generallities which may hold true for all revolutionaries?

------------------
I think people have noticed I’m not the most well read person on the forum. :D and I can’t remember an article that “instructed me” on what is the party line response to this question. So I will put down the understanding I’ve constructed from the general information I’ve gleaned from being in the party. Sorry if this is in my usual tedious and simplistic fashion. :D PS. I hope S. W. members will correct me if I get this wrong.

I think for myself it is a “big picture” analysis. For example; If you look at the detail of the economy it could be in boom. So you could look at several indicators like the real wage growth, and increasing production, etc. but this then has to put in the context of long-term trends. To cut to the chase, though we can see booms in the nineteen thirties, and slumps in the nineteen fifties, we categorize the nineteen thirties as a period of depression and the nineteen fifties as period of boom. Yes?

Now class struggle itself go through booms and slumps. BUT like the whole of human experience it operates on two levels which can be divergent. On the material level one can measure the level of struggle By the number of strike days, the direction of real wages, and the achievement of reforms ect. But the class struggle also takes place on a ideological level.

Now because society is a dynamic ever changing whole one can see the first green shoots of the upturn of British working class ideological struggle in the nineteen thirties it might be argued, just like you can see the green shoots of capitalism within feudalism before the revolution, but and I think we can definitely say the postwar period saw the longest period of sustained British working class confidence in combativity. From 1945 to 1979ish there was a general ideological confidence of the British working class that they could fight for at least reforms of the capitalist system to make the world a better place. Because the post boom gave the bosses room to maneuver, and accede to reforms, this ideological viewpoint was never tested to the point of crisis.

The post war boom ended in 1972ish. Even before then you could see attempt to restructure capitalism [ie labor government “in place of strife”]. But by the heath government, needs to restructure British capitalism were desperate. The two sides fought to a standstill with the miners strike of 1974. but the only answer to the crisis from the reformist working class movement was a reformist government.

It was the labor government that made scabbing respectable. It was the labor government that brought in Thatcherism, “ You can't spend your way out of a recession" Callaghan. And by 1979 the British working class reformist labor movement had nowhere to turn. From having a offensive, solidarity, labor movement with hope for a better future, came a defensive, divided labor movement that resulted in defeat after defeat.

Now if you think as I stated above that a revolutionary opportunity is breif in nature. That it is pregnant with all kinds of possibilities for reform or fascism etc.. And that you need the biggest possible influence at that moment, if you re to win social revolution. And you can see your party hemorrhaging members to Bennism, reformism which is already bankrupt. You would probably want to reorganize your party.

_________________
Respect, ResistanceMP3.

They stoop so low to reach so high.
 
I'm not sure how good a guide strikes actually are as they do fluctuate madely overtime. Often it is just one big strike (usually the miners) which makes all the difference.

Periods of high industrial dispute occurred in 1972, 1979 and 1984. In 1972, a miners strike accounted for 45 per cent of the 24 million days lost and a strike by the engineering workers in 1979 resulted in just over half of the 29 million days lost; http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/xsdataset.asp?vlnk=134&More=Y(display all at the bottom for the full figures)

Moreover, in the 1930s we had the great unemployed workers hunger marches and the fight against fascism. They appear to be an upturn in political action but do not register on days lost through industrial dispute.
 
butchersapron said:
The above graph only indicates the number of stoppages

This is true which is why I also posted the URL of the page so people could look at these. However


butchersapron said:
The actual number of days lost to strikes during this period,a far more accurate measure demonstrates the exact opposite

For what it matters I don't think 'days lost' is a more accurate measure then numbers of disputes. Numbers of disputes gives you a general idea of militancy across the working class. Days lost can (and in this case was) dominated by one section of workers (the miners). In this discussion militancy across the class seems more relevant then the heroic militancy of one section of the class.

I say 'for what it matters' as I wasn't addressing the rightness or wrongness of the idea that there had been a drop off in struggle anyway. More the idea that there was somehow more struggle in the 1990's which is obviously ludicrous.
 
rebel warrior said:
The theory though was looking at Europe, not just Britain. The fact in in France in 1995, and in Italy and other places, there have been mass strikes...
So would you accept, then, that in the UK there has been no significant upturn whatsoever?
 
scawenb said:
I'm not sure how good a guide strikes actually are as they do fluctuate madely overtime. Often it is just one big strike (usually the miners) which makes all the difference.



Moreover, in the 1930s we had the great unemployed workers hunger marches and the fight against fascism. They appear to be an upturn in political action but do not register on days lost through industrial dispute.
Of course, which is why the great series of urban riots/uprisings from the early 80s to early 90s won't register with thise who argue in favour of the downturn either, and nor will the Poll tax - thoug they were both undoubtdly extremely high points of class conflict. This just throws more doubt on the theory.
 
JoeBlack said:
This is true which is why I also posted the URL of the page so people could look at these. However




For what it matters I don't think 'days lost' is a more accurate measure then numbers of disputes. Numbers of disputes gives you a general idea of militancy across the working class. Days lost can (and in this case was) dominated by one section of workers (the miners). In this discussion militancy across the class seems more relevant then the heroic militancy of one section of the class.

I say 'for what it matters' as I wasn't addressing the rightness or wrongness of the idea that there had been a drop off in struggle anyway. More the idea that there was somehow more struggle in the 1990's which is obviously ludicrous.
Fair enough - i guess the most accurate measure might be something like a cross between number of disputes, number of workers involved and days lost.
 
rebel warrior said:
The theory though was looking at Europe, not just Britain. The fact in in France in 1995, and in Italy and other places, there have been mass strikes...

So your saying that SWP day to day tactics in this period were based on a theory that was simply wrong in its application to where the SWP were organising but you think might have been right elsewhere?
 
butchersapron said:
Of course, which is whay the great series of urban riots/uprisings from the early 80s to early 90s won't register, and nor will the Poll tax - thought they wwere undoubtdly extremely hight point of class conflict. This just throws more doubt on the theory.

It does follow the logic of keeping the workplace at the heart of analysis, even when the charateristics of the workplace - its size, location and internal organisation - have changed so dramatically. And of course that is before you turn to look at the vastly changed role of the state - in relation to how class intetrests are pursued - over the last century.

Cheers - Louis Mac
 
A general debunking of the theory here, with plenty of those stubborn facts:

"The figures speak for themselves. In the five (upturn) years between 1970 and 1974 a huge 70 million days were lost in strike action. But in the five (downturn) years from 1977 until 1981 another huge 65m days were lost .... hardly any different.

Was Cliff arguing that 65m days lost was a collapse of militancy of the working class? It beggars belief. If that period was a freezing winter, the 'upturn' of the 1990s was an ice age, since the days lost in the 5 years 1991-95 was just 2.6m - a tiny fraction of the 'downturn' period!. And the second 5 years of the 1990s were even worse.

There was a drop in the level of strikes for two years in the 1970s, in 1975 and 1976. This was a result of the support of the TUC for Labour's initial stages of incomes policy and its 12 month rule (which outlawed pay claims with 12 months of the previous one).

As a result "only" 6 million days were lost in 1975 and 3.2m in 1976 against 14.7m in 1974.

But this went back up to 10m in 1977 and then a staggering 29m in 1979 - the highest since the general strike of 1926 and 6m more than the highest year in the 70-74 period.

There were numerous strikes against the later stages of Labour's incomes policy, the most important of which was the 13 week national fire fighters strike against Stage three."
 
butchersapron said:
Of course, which is why the great series of urban riots/uprisings from the early 80s to early 90s won't register with thise who argue in favour of the downturn either, and nor will the Poll tax - thoug they were both undoubtdly extremely high points of class conflict. This just throws more doubt on the theory.
Absolutely!

Also, in relation to a thread on building a revolutionary movement the British Trade Unions and strikes are not revolutionary they are merely part of the mechanism for regulating the rate of wages.
 
cockneyrebel said:
Can any SWPer explain to me the down turn theory? As said how would it have been a down turn if the miner's had won? The opposite would have been the case and the UK would look very different today.

I presume the SWP didn't think the miner's were going to inevitably lose?
I think post 39. However I would add I think the downturn theory in 1979-81 was more about the qualitive nature of the class struggle, rather than the quantitive nature. But the change in the qualitive nature of the working class struggle resulted in a quantitive change, and defeat of the miners.
_________________
Respect, ResistanceMP3.

They stoop so low to reach so high.
 
ResistanceMP3 said:
I think post 39. However I would add I think the downturn theory in 1979-81 was more about the qualitive nature of the class struggle, rather than the quantitive nature.

What was this qualitative change? Did it ever change back? If not, why aren't we still in 'the downturn'?
 
ResistanceMP3 said:
Now class struggle itself go through booms and slumps. BUT like the whole of human experience it operates on two levels which can be divergent. On the material level one can measure the level of struggle By the number of strike days, the direction of real wages, and the achievement of reforms ect. But the class struggle also takes place on a ideological level.

There is a pinch of truth in this but at some time you have to expect the supposed ideological upsure to result in some sort of real world measure of militancy. As I said I'm an empericist on this sort of thing - I want to see numbers or at least the emergance of numbers before I'm willing to believe.

As long as I've been active on the left there have been people and groups around who have belived that the choice between fascism or revolution is just around the corner. At some point in time these people are groups will be correct (unless we really are at the end of history). But this is not a reason to stand in the spot you are in and accept such predictions in the short term.

The belief in imminant crisis has always led to left organisations doing odd things. Or rather things that are odd if nothing happens but maybe quite sensible if the fascist coup was indeed just around the corner. I'm sure some of the older posters here could fill us in with the antics of the WRP at the state of the 70's in that regard. I remember the 80's when the Militant seemed to have a call for a general strike on the front page of every second edition. And in the 90's it was the SWP's turn to step into that gap in the market.

One thing to be noticed in this that it tends to be the biggest trot group at that moment in history that decides the end days are at hand. I suspect this isn't coincidental.
 
The graph seems to indicate a 'down turn' to me...

Joe Black can say it’s obsessing (maybe it is!), but I seriously just don’t get it. If no SWPer can answer it, can a non-SWPer?

For ease of reference here is the Q again!

Can any SWPer explain to me the down turn theory? As said how would it have been a down turn if the miner's had won? The opposite would have been the case and the UK would look very different today.

I presume the SWP didn't think the miner's were going to inevitably lose?

PS Post 39 doesn't answer it. Are the SWP seriously gonna suggest there wouldn't have been a big upturn in radical consciousness if the miner's had won?
 
cockneyrebel said:
Are the SWP seriously gonna suggest there wouldn't have been a big upturn in radical consciousness if the miner's had won?

This is called counterfactual history - its fun but you can't prove anything by it beyond what you already believe.
 
The down turn theory was based on then fact that generally the working class was in a period of retreat in the mid 80s.If the strike days by miners were taken off the list for 1984 then the figure would have been more startling.

The SWP believed that the fact that there wasn't one union that called for even one a one day national strike of their own members in support of the miners says a lot.Whilst the rank and file had been strong enough say over issues like Pentonville dockers or the national building workers strike in the 70s and many more examples by the mid 80s this pressure from below was receeding.

It could be suggested that in winding up the relatively successfull various rank and file groups that had brought together activist on the left that the SWP may haveremoved the very structures that could have tried to hold militants (small m) together.

The Parety went very internal, there were lots of speeches at District aggregates and branches about russia post 1905 and the growth of wierd and wonderful political and religous sects and how the need for a revolutionary orgnaisation was essential and a return to theory. There was a period of debate in the party and educationals to sharpen this return to theory and members encouraged to argue out ( or at) diffreneces of opinion. I think it was Bamberry who said 'we want to see blood on the carpet'

As I have tried to describe here before this meant that the internal party life and routine became more paramount than the outside world so much so that when the miners strike broke out at a national committee one delegate ( I think from leeds) told us all that we shouldn't let the strike get in the way of the weekly paper sales!

The party also believed , quite wrongly, that the turn to Militant was a sign that whilst there was a resistance in terms of ideas that the support for an electoral route via the Labour Party was also indicative of workers lack of confidence.Consequently a very sectarian line was initially taken to Militant and Liverpool where a false distinction was made between reformist Militant and revolutionary SWP instead of solidarity.

For info:this is not a reply to cockneyrebel's question as he isn't 'talking to me'.
 
Whilst the rank and file had been strong enough say over issues like Pentonville dockers or the national building workers strike in the 70s and many more examples by the mid 80s this pressure from below was receeding.

Perhaps the "union positions" had attempted to control this presure from below so that it wouldn't attack the authority and managerialist structure of most of the TUC unions.
 
Chuck Wilson said:
The down turn theory was based on then fact that generally the working class was in a period of retreat in the mid 80s.

Ah thanks for this post, it illustrates the distinction I was trying to draw beween accepting that the level of struggle dropped off in the 80's and accepting the SWP's theory of why this was so and how to react to it ('downturn theory').
 
But this still doesn’t make sense. You can’t “leave aside” the miner’s strike, it was one of the most significant events in working class history in the UK. There was also Wapping of course.

Also the dockers did come out on strike in support of the miner’s but they were shafted by their union leaders. A less syndicalist campaign by Scargill could well have meant significant secondary strikes. Indeed when the dockers came out Thatcher, from sources close to her, apparently thought that was the beginning of the end for her government.

So as said, if the miner’s had won it would have changed everything, so unless the SWP though defeat was inevitable then how could the down turn theory make sense?

Can’t believe a delegate said that about paper sales. It shows how crazy the theory was IMO…..

PS I'll talk on this thread ;) :D....so you went from the SWP to IWCA eh....
 
butchersapron said:
A general debunking of the theory here, with plenty of those stubborn facts:

"The figures speak for themselves. In the five (upturn) years between 1970 and 1974 a huge 70 million days were lost in strike action. But in the five (downturn) years from 1977 until 1981 another huge 65m days were lost .... hardly any different.

Was Cliff arguing that 65m days lost was a collapse of militancy of the working class? It beggars belief. If that period was a freezing winter, the 'upturn' of the 1990s was an ice age, since the days lost in the 5 years 1991-95 was just 2.6m - a tiny fraction of the 'downturn' period!. And the second 5 years of the 1990s were even worse.

There was a drop in the level of strikes for two years in the 1970s, in 1975 and 1976. This was a result of the support of the TUC for Labour's initial stages of incomes policy and its 12 month rule (which outlawed pay claims with 12 months of the previous one).

As a result "only" 6 million days were lost in 1975 and 3.2m in 1976 against 14.7m in 1974.

But this went back up to 10m in 1977 and then a staggering 29m in 1979 - the highest since the general strike of 1926 and 6m more than the highest year in the 70-74 period.

There were numerous strikes against the later stages of Labour's incomes policy, the most important of which was the 13 week national fire fighters strike against Stage three."
This article, and this post totally misunderstands what cliffs theory was about in my opinion in post 39.
 
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