Brazil could get Trump plus

Discussion in 'world politics, current affairs and news' started by 1%er, Sep 23, 2018.

  1. 1%er

    1%er Well-Known Member

    It looks like Brazil could get a worse president even than Trump. At the moment it looks highly likely that the race will come down to a run-off between Fernando Haddad who was Lula's vice president candidate when it looked like Lula would run again (but now he will not run) and Jair Bolsonaro a real far-right nut job. He was stabbed at a political rally a couple of weeks ago which got him loads of air time which pushed him higher in the polls.

    Bolsonaro's only claims to fame are his homophobic rants and verbal attacks on minorities and the poor. He wants to increase gun ownership and advocates an extremely tough on crime stance, including chemical castration for rapists and giving Brazil's police greater rights to kill suspects. He is a congressman in Rio de Janeiro and former army captain who is an outspoken supporter of Brazil's military dictatorship. His base is claimed to be the middle-class voters and young people born after the dictatorship, but with so many Brazilians pissed off with corruption in politics many workingclass voters appear to be buying his bullshit.

    He doesn't have any of the large political parties behind him (yet), just a coalition of small hard-right party's, but as his stock rises some of the larger party's could jump on his bandwagon to get some of their policies through, if he wins the presidency. Fortunately in Brazil the free and wide-reaching TV and radio campaign ad allocation is dependent on the number of lower house congressmen in the candidate's coalition and he has barely any. TV and radio remain the most effective methods of communication in an election here so he is reliant on social media so I hope he is only preaching to the already converted.

    There is also Geraldo Alckmin (who I don't think will win) he has the strongest coalition and the most TV and radio time but lags in opinion polls and is not very well know or liked outside Sao Paulo. He wants to contunie with the same policies as the current president Michel Temer, who has overseen a massive increase in unemployment, massive inflation and a huge return to poverty for millions of Brazilians.
     
  2. Favelado

    Favelado Half to the Tower, please.

    Haddad should do it shouldn't he? Bolsonaro has said some awful things that would even be a push for Trump. "The problem with the dictatorship was that it tortured rather than killed people".

    I hope, and believe, that enough of Brazilian society is mobilised enough against Bolsonaro. He has certainly got women upset.
     
  3. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

    A lot of people seem resigned to Bolsanaro, even with his huge disapproval rating. I’m wondering if I did the right think by running away from Brexit to Brazil.

    No blood when he was allegedly stabbed though.
     
    Dom Traynor likes this.
  4. 1%er

    1%er Well-Known Member

    Haddad is beginning to gain traction. The polls are hard to read as the press is controlled by the people who are backing some candidates, so those polls are just favoring their candidate. For example one poll shows that Bolsonaro would defeat all other candidates except for Gomes in the runoff, but other polls show Bolsonaro losing a runoff against most candidates.

    Welcome back to Brazil, I'd take Brazil over the UK with or without Brexit ;)

    He was stabbed for sure, but it was a good thing for his supporters, not only did he get the sympathy vote and the press coverage but it has kept him off the campaign trail so he can't put his foot in his mouth so easily, I think the more he said the more votes he'd lose.
     
  5. Saul Goodman

    Saul Goodman It's all good, man

    Is the UK really that bad that you'd rather live in Brazil? I didn't think anybody lived in Brazil by choice.
     
  6. girasol

    girasol Sunflower

    wow, are you serious? This comment sounds... I don't even know. Ignorant at best. (maybe it was a joke) There were a lot of white Europeans & descendants living it large in Brazil through choice (money made largely through exploitation and thieving obviously). They are still there, ruling the country and very much willing to live there.

    Brazil is also a rather large, beautiful country - even the people who aren't rich would probably rather live there than anywhere else.
     
    1%er likes this.
  7. Saul Goodman

    Saul Goodman It's all good, man

    :thumbs:
     
    girasol likes this.
  8. Pickman's model

    Pickman's model Every man and every woman is a star

    Can't fault yer man on increased gun ownership as can't help feeling he'd be dead if his assailant had only had a shooter. Or a bigger knife.
     
    1%er likes this.
  9. Pickman's model

    Pickman's model Every man and every woman is a star

    Not sure you ran a) far enough or b) in the right direction
     
  10. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

    Thank you!
    In all seriousness, Brazil is a series of tough decisions. I walk out of my front door and if I turn right I’m on Copacabana beach in two minutes. Left, and it’s 3 minutes to Ipanema.
    I’m very lucky to be paid broadly equivalent to a UK professional salary, although as an autônomo I have no security, benefits, holiday pay and I pay my own health insurance. A bit like a lot of people in the UK now.
    There is no hostile environment. No anti-foreigner unpleasantness (*well, not if your white in Rio, we will put the Venezuelan border issues to one side). People don’t get squirted with corrosive Substances, or mugged by kids on mopeds. I’ve even found an artisanal maker of gin.

    Anyway, we will see what happens. I’m not sure Bolsanaro would achieve much as he’d have to form some sort of congressional coalition. And a lot of the power is with the state governors.
     
    1%er likes this.
  11. Favelado

    Favelado Half to the Tower, please.

    Rio is my favourite place in the world by an absolute mile - but having lived very close to where you must be now - on Rua Francisco Sá - I think we both know that moped mugging does happen in the city - and on Avenida Atlantica and Nossa Senhora de Copacabana - street mugging on foot is verrrrrrry common.
     
    Dom Traynor and 1%er like this.
  12. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

  13. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

    Street mugging, yes. I wasn’t aware of moped muggings. I was being very selective in what I’ll admit to. Like checking FogoCruzado before I take the dog for a walk in the morning when it sounds, er, lively, in Pavão pavãozinho
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2018
    Riklet and 1%er like this.
  14. skyscraper101

    skyscraper101 0891 50 50 50

    Hoping for the best outcome for you both 1%er and pseudonarcissus - God knows the country has put up with enough bullshit politicians over the years.

    I’ll make sure the missus votes for the least worst one. That’ll be a fun day at the embassy.
     
    1%er likes this.
  15. Favelado

    Favelado Half to the Tower, please.

    I've been inside Pavão pavãozinho (and Cantagalo/Rocinha and a dozen others). It was fine the day I was there but they all pass through phases of calm and tempest, so I take it that it's the latter there at the moment.
     
    1%er likes this.
  16. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

    6am gunfire is usually police, they are, at least, punctual.
     
    Favelado, skyscraper101 and 1%er like this.
  17. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

    I’m enjoying this book at the moment

    Brazil
     
  18. 1%er

    1%er Well-Known Member

    I heard this morning while queuing for bread at the padaria that the gerrymandering has started. There was a local politico telling people that a Judge has made an order that people must use their fingerprint to vote and can not just use their ID card number. In 2012 the new voting machines allowed people to enter their ID number or use their fingerprint, but to use your fingerprint (which is on your ID card anyway) you need to have registered your fingerprint for this specific reason apparently.

    I don't vote so am not fully aware of the procedure. Anyway he was claiming this could disenfranchise 3.5 million voters in the North-East alone and I'm sure you are aware that the NE is the stronghold for the PT. Apparently the Judge made this ruling after the closing date for people to register their fingerprint, there was no talk of any such change in voting law prior to this ruling. I couldn't find anything on the news sites I used this morning but I look again later.
     
  19. 1%er

    1%er Well-Known Member

    pseudonarcissus did you go to the EleNão demo in Rio over the weekend? My old lady went to one in the city of Joao Pessoa with a load of women friends. According to the news reports well over a million women took to the streets to protest Bolsonaro. It seems that the polls show women are far more opposed to him than men and as there are more women than men in Brazil they will surely determine the result of the election. Apparently this is the first time that the female vote has been so discrepant from the male vote, which is due to the high rejection rate against Bolsonaro among women.

    I see that Bolsonaro is claiming that he will not accept the result of next month’s election if he loses. it is looking likely that if there is a run-off it will be between Bolsonare and Fernando Haddad (PT). Bolsonare's running mate is a retired general (Hamilton Mourão) and they say if they win they will put current and retired army personal in key positions with-in the government.

    Did you see the reports in the papers where his ex-wife accused him of concealing his fortune and stealing from her bank safe, citing court documents. Its reported that his second wife had accused him in 2008 in an acrimonious divorce filing of stealing 1 million reais in cash and jewelry, and underreporting his assets to electoral authorities. it is also reported she had told Brazilian diplomats in 2011 that she fled to Norway after receiving a death threat from him.

    Other reports are claiming he and Mourão have been speaking to senior people in the army in an effort to start a coup claiming it is to stop corruption, if he doesn't win. The irony is that a majority of those standing for seats in the national government have corruption charges hanging over them but they will still get elected, "only in Brazil" as the saying goes :) LOL
     
  20. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

    I’m not in Rio at the moment, unfortunately I’m working in Curaçao;)
    Sunday was gay pride in Rio, so there was probably a smaller crowd than there could have been.
    Bolsanaro is frightening. Folha de São Paulo has been wondering where his wealth has come from.
    The postcript to Brazil, A Biography was rather depressing. It’s not as if the dictatorship wasn’t corrupt, as well as brutal. And the economy has still not recovered from Dilma’s and PT’s less than stellar management of the economy.
    Scary times everywhere.
     
    1%er likes this.
  21. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

  22. pseudonarcissus

    pseudonarcissus fluttering and dancing

    1%er likes this.
  23. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

  24. girasol

    girasol Sunflower

    Well, I'm up very early (especially for a Sunday) so I can go an vote at the London Embassy. I'm guessing there's going to be a second turn...
     
    spitfire, teqniq and pseudonarcissus like this.
  25. FridgeMagnet

    FridgeMagnet Administrator

    EleSi and EleNao folk outside the embassy this morning, which made for a not at all surreal situation as the, er, Dogs Against Brexit march went between them.
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2018
  26. girasol

    girasol Sunflower

    I'm really glad I went early (I got there at 8:10am, out at 8:25) because the queues later were on were horrendous. Two friends said they queued for 3 hours!
     
  27. Riklet

    Riklet procrastinación

    What do folks think will happen then?

    Hope PT can get get the voters out. Were there seriously lots of EleSim dicks out in London? Guess I shouldn't be too surprised.
     
  28. girasol

    girasol Sunflower

    Last edited: Oct 8, 2018
  29. teqniq

    teqniq DisMembered

  30. 1%er

    1%er Well-Known Member

    Brazil will have a Neo-fascist President, he says he will fill his cabinet with army and ex-army personal. The thing is I don't think he will have a majority in the legislature, so could find it difficult to get anything through the Senate or the Chamber of Deputies. We will have to see what happens there in time.

    He will not take part in any of the debates with other politico's because if he opens his mouth people will change their vote in the run-off election on the 28th Oct. I have to say I am amazed at the amount of working people who voted for him as he intends to cut workers rights out of the gate but people don't seem to have listened to what he has said. He is a vocal supporter of the dictatorship and has changed political party's more often then I've changed cars. He has had a rather unimpressive time as a backbencher and no-one outside Rio knew who he was until about 2 years ago.

    What he has done is touched a nerve with people who have a fear of crime much bigger than the reality of crime and Brazilian people are really fed-up with political corruption and he has fed off that, the problem is he himself is corrupt and will use this opportunity to enrich himself, just like all those who came before him. He intends on militarising the police (even more than they are now), crack down on criminal offenders by allowing police greater freedom to kill, and loosening public gun laws. While he says he will loosen gun law I don't believe he will, arming the Brazilian people who are already pissed off with politicians and their corruption will not go down with other politicos as people with gums may start acting against those very same politicians. He only needs to look at what has happened in his home city where the military takeover of policing has been a disaster with homicide rates going up since the military took over.

    All he has really done is offer simple answers to complex problems, he has no clear plan, He has got the Evangelists behind him claiming he is anti-abortion, but that's is, he has said it but not what he will do if elected. He has played to older people who thought under the military dictatorship there was less corruption and violance (which there wasn't), the Evangelists with abortion and the libertarian-right by claiming he will reduce government.

    Some of the things he has said are amazing, he told a congresswoman she was too ugly to be raped, he said he would rather one of his four sons die in an accident than be gay, he described having a daughter as a weakness, that black people were not even good for procreation and said he is in favour of a dictatorship, he has even been charged by Brazil’s attorney general with inciting hate speech and this man will be elected President.

    But if that is who the people elect who am I to tell them they are wrong, they will have to wait and find out for themselves, I'm lucky as if it all goes to shit I can just move somewhere else, but then I didn't vote for him.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018

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