BNP - another close call

[JimPage]

As to this result, the worrying things was this was a leaflet-only campaign - no canvassing was done- and the tories threw the kitchen sink at this one in one of their best wards in Manchester

That is now 3 wards in Manchester where they are polling over 20%- and manchester in crucial as to whether they get elected in the NW or not

 

[Fisher_Gate]

As to this result, the worrying things was this was a leaflet-only campaign - no canvassing was done- and the tories threw the kitchen sink at this one in one of their best wards in Manchester

That is now 3 wards in Manchester where they are polling over 20%- and manchester in crucial as to whether they get elected in the NW or not

Contrary to popular belief elsewhere in the country, the rest of the North West is not just a suburb of Manchester - Manchester represented only 5% of the vote in the last Euro elections (100,000 votes out of 2 million).

Lancashire (the 1974 boundaries - including Blackburn and Blackpool) represents nearly five times that proportion.

Though that is not to deny that the rise in the BNP vote in Manchester if repeated across the region is a very serious issue.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Contrary to popular belief elsewhere in the country, the rest of the North West is not just a suburb of Manchester - Manchester represented only 5% of the vote in the last Euro elections (100,000 votes out of 2 million).

Lancashire (the 1974 boundaries - including Blackburn and Blackpool) represents nearly five times that proportion.

Though that is not to deny that the rise in the BNP vote in Manchester if repeated across the region is a very serious issue.

I was told Gtr Manchester is a 3rd of the region though and there are fash strongholds in stoke and pendle areas. Having said all that, I think the fash will probably fall short of what they need over the region, but we clearly cant be complacent.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

I was told Gtr Manchester is a 3rd of the region though and there are fash strongholds in stoke and pendle areas. Having said all that, I think the fash will probably fall short of what they need over the region, but we clearly cant be complacent.

"Greater Manchester" is a county, carved out parts of historic Lancashire and Cheshire in 1974, and was originally to be called SELNEC - "South East Lancashire & North East Cheshire". It comprises 10 boroughs representing dozens of towns/cities/villages. As well as Manchester City itself which represents about 20% of the county, Greater Manchester includes the City of Salford and the significant towns of Bolton, Wigan, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham, Ashton-under-Lyne, Stockport, Altrincham and Sale, and a whole host of smaller towns/villages each of which has their own identity and are not just suburbs of Manchester.

You are right that Greater Manchester county constituted about a third of the North West region in terms of euro election votes last time, Lancashire (1974 boundaries) was 22%, Merseyside 19%, Cheshire 16% and Cumbria (which is actually bigger than Manchester in population terms and has a higher turnout in elections) was 8% of the vote.

 

[Fisher_Gate]

I was told Gtr Manchester is a 3rd of the region though and there are fash strongholds in stoke and pendle areas. Having said all that, I think the fash will probably fall short of what they need over the region, but we clearly cant be complacent.

Stoke is in the West Midlands euro region. Pendle is in Lancashire and was the second highest vote proportion for the BNP in 2004. Burnley was the highest.

 

[butchersapron]

I was told Gtr Manchester is a 3rd of the region though and there are fash strongholds in stoke and pendle areas. Having said all that, I think the fash will probably fall short of what they need over the region, but we clearly cant be complacent.

Why? What on earth makes you think that?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Why? What on earth makes you think that?

I dont think they will make up the neccessary % in their "black hole" regions. I could be wrong though. I know you are more pessimistic than me, and that's fine.

Fisher Gate

It's a relief Stoke is out of play, thanks for pointing it out.

 

[butchersapron]

Thanks. Any reasons for feeling that?

Where is this black hole btw? Why is it a a black hole? What is it? Who identified it? Have you been listening to hope not hate all week? Are you student?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Thaanks. Any reasons for felling that?

To be honest we are both guessing. The only thing that will make it up for the fash is to motivate broad appeal and getting out to vote on the basis of a single freepost and hopefully not too much airplay. I will be doing what I can to see that they are beaten into 5th place where from where they are almost certain not to get a seat.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Thanks. Any reasons for feeling that?

Where is this black hole btw? Why is it a a black hole? What is it? Who identified it? Have you been listening to hope not hate all week? Are you student?

No. A "black hole" is what I call an area of the region where parties like Greens and BNP have no activity or record of regular standing.

 

[butchersapron]

To be honest we are both guessing. The only thing that will make it up for the fash is to motivate broad appeal and getting out to vote on the basis of a single freepost and hopefully not too much airplay. I will be doing what I can to see that they are beaten into 5th place where from where they are almost certain not to get a seat.

I'm not, i'm basing it on recent results in the NW metroplitan areas and matching votes in more rural wards to other recent results in comparable areas.

You're def been drinking the Hope not hate juice with that last sentence. Big up Searchlight.

 

[butchersapron]

No. A "black hole" is what I call an area of the region where parties like Greens and BNP have no activity or record of regular standing.

Areas where the BNP are scoring 20% in over the last 3 months you mean? What hole? This is where their future support is going to come from.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Areas where the BNP are scoring 20% in over the last 3 months you mean? What hole? This is where their future support is going to come from.

Activists have gone into areas with a natural demographic tendancy for the fash in these times (terrible that such a group should exist at all of course)

They cant sustain that intense ward activity over a whole region in my estimation.

 

[butchersapron]

Doesn't matter if they do or not as the BNP are scoring 20%+ there. And you think they'll fail to get an MEP because of their performance in these black hole areas. You're dreaming.

If you really think that bussing students into an area even as a sticking plaster (how did you identify the natural demographic tendancy for the fash - i 'd be interested to hear) has any road left then i think i don't need to talk to you anymore. I would really really like to hear about this 'natural demographic tendancy for the fash' though.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Doesn't matter if they do or not as the BNP are scoring 20%+ there. And you think they'll fail to get an MEP because of their performance in these black hole areas. You're dreaming.

If you really think that bussing students into an area even as a sticking plaster (how did you identify the natural demographic tendancy for the fash - i 'd be interested to hear) has any road left then i think i don't need to talk to you anymore. I would really really like to hear about this 'natural demographic tendancy for the fash' though.

I dont know about bussing students in as a strategy, certainly not to doorknock. UAF have clearly not been too successful in recent byes, though for all we know things could have been worse without.

As for "demographic tendancy for the fash" - I will quote an AFA and Labour Party (yes, weird) - a staunch working class activist who described a "parochial xenophobia" in his own white working class. Where the establishment has shat on people and they look to vote for the "bollocks to 'em all" party, it looks like the BNP may be getting quite a bit of that.

Like I say, on BNPs chances I havent swallowed some kool-aid - you may be right. I was wondering what you would put any upcomming victory of theirs down to.

 

[butchersapron]

I dont know about bussing students in as a strategy, certainly not to doorknock. UAF have clearly not been too successful in recent byes, though for all we know things could have been worse without.

As for "demographic tendancy for the fash" - I will quote an AFA and Labour Party (yes, weird) - a staunch working class activist who described a "parochial xenophobia" in his own white working class. Where the establishment has shat on people and they look to vote for the "bollocks to 'em all" party, it looks like the BNP may be getting quite a bit of that.

Like I say, on BNPs chances I havent swallowed some kool-aid - you may be right. I was wondering what you would put any upcomming victory of theirs down to.

Weird post, but you're bussing kids into this area where the local problems are not going to be met by you lot shouting don't vote BNP? Where you effectively play no role whatsover. And where the BNP routinely return 20% + votes, and this makes you think they won't get an MEP come June. Stop liting to yourself.

 

[butchersapron]

Like I say, on BNPs chances I havent swallowed some kool-aid - you may be right. I was wondering what you would put any upcomming victory of theirs down to.

Material conditions, needs being ignored or denied, allows the far right too move in and racialise them. It's simple. I've been on about their potential for near 10 years on here. I hate to be proved right (in this case anyway)

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Weird post, but you're bussing kids into this area where the local problems are not going to be met by you lot shouting don't vote BNP? Where you effectively play no role whatsover. And where the BNP routinely return 20% + votes, and this makes you think they won't get an MEP come June. Stop liting to yourself.

Im not shipping anyone in. Im not sure of the tactic at all. The tories often say we shouldnt mention the fash at all, they may have a point. It's a really hard thing to judge.

Why are you so sure they will win? Where is there support comming from and why? Isnt it a huge failure for the broad left (i.e I assume many people reading this) that people are more drawn to a fascist narrative than a radical one?

 

[butchersapron]

Im not shipping anyone in. Im not sure of the tactic at all. The tories often say we shouldnt mention the fash at all, they may have a point. It's a really hard thing to judge.

Why are you so sure they will win? Where is there support comming from and why? Isnt it a huge failure for the broad left (i.e I assume many people reading this) that people are more drawn to a fascist narrative than a radical one?

Because of their past results and results in the area in the intevening period. Again. it's simple. Just open your eyes and look. All the evidence is there.

Yes it is, and you and your vote labour agenda are a huge part of it.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Material conditions, needs being ignored or denied, allows the far right too move in and racialise them. It's simple. I've been on about their potential for near 10 years on here. I hate to be proved right (in this case anyway)

Not nice. What have you done to stop it? Is there anything you would have done differently?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Because of their past results and results in the area in the intevening period.

Yes it is, and you and your vote labour agenda are a huge part of it.

Except for my not very secret vote Green agenda in the election that they are most likely to win in my area.

 

[butchersapron]

Not nice. What have you done to stop it? Is there anything you would have done differently?

Shoot all you govt liberals.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Shoot all you govt liberals.

lol. Do you have a gulag lined up for us too?

 

[butchersapron]

No need

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Anyway Butchers I asked you what you had done, not just what you would do. I dont mind if it "aint much" and aint trying to catch you out - just learn from your experience.

 

[butchersapron]

Anyway Butchers I asked you what you had done, not just what you would do. I dont mind if it "aint much" and aint trying to catch you out - just learn from your experience.

And he's almost at the bottom of the barrell. Do fuck the fuck off.

Nice little life on campas. Sadly, it's a bubble.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

And he's almost at the bottom of the barrell. Do fuck the fuck off.

Nice little life on campas. Sadly, it's a bubble.

I have never lived on campus. Your psychic powers really aint all that.

I may be at the bottom of the barrell in your eyes, but it aint a far-out question and it is asked out of genuine interest, you could of course answer it.

 

[butchersapron]

I have never lived on campus. Your psychic powers really aint all that.

I may be at the bottom of the barrell in your eyes, but it aint a far-out question and it is asked out of genuine interest, you could of course answer it.

You don't need to live on campus to have your whole energy and precious life fluids directed at it.


It's a question that betrays its own naievity in the asking.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

It's a question that betrays its own naievity in the asking.

I'm naive if I dont know what anti-fascist activities you have engaged in?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Treat the term as broadly as you please Butchers.